My Kingdom for a Horse

[Frobby]

Sports Guy’s and Can_of_corn’s comments about how quickly college players can reach the majors reminded my that, when I gathered the data for this thread, I captured when the player had been drafted or signed, whether they came from a 4 year school, Juco or high school, and when they debuted in the majors.   So, I though I’d summarize some of that for discussion.   

Of the 42 20+ WAR “horses” between 1990-2019 who were drafted from a 4-year college, here’s how many years it took them to reach the majors:

0 - 1 (Sale)

1 - 6

2 - 21

3 - 7

4 - 5

5+ - 2 (Woody Williams, Dickey)

Here’s the 33 high school guys:

1 - 1 (Verlander)

2 - 6

3 - 8

4 - 10

5 - 5

6 -2

7 - 1 (Fassero)

Here’s the 21 foreign guys excluding older guys from Cuba or Japan:

3 - 3

4 - 9

5 - 5

6 - 2

7 - 2

There were 8 Juco’s on the list:

0 - 1 (A. Fernandez)

2 - 2

3 - 2

4 - 1

5 - 2

I may have accidentally double counted 2-3 guys, but that’s close enough.

[GuidoSarducci]

On 2/12/2020 at 5:41 PM, Redskins Rick said:

The Tigers had a really crappy pen.

I vaguely recall Camden Yards cheering when Joba Chamberlain took the mound for the Tigers in 2014 playoffs. 

[Frobby]

Time for an update on this, 1 short season and 1 full season later.   Here are guys who’ve moved up a notch, or entered the Horse club.

40+ rWAR DeGrom, Price.  DeGrom still looking like he might get to 50+, but Price about done.  Two years ago I thought Strasburg might get into this category or beyond, now that looks questionable    

30+; Cole, Lynn.   Cole (30) doesn’t surprise me, Lynn (34) does.   

20+: Nola (28), Hendricks (31), Gray (31), Kimbrel (33), Bauer (30), Wheeler (31), Carrasco (34)., At 28, Nola has a good shot to reach 40+ before he’s through.  I might have said the same of Bauer, but….  Hendricks, Gray and Wheeler all seem pretty decent bets for 30+, but any of them couid get derailed.  

There are quite a few guys poised to get into the 20+ club in the next few years.  There are 23 pitchers between 15.0 - 19.9 rWAR, including four under 30 years old (Ray, Rodriguez, Freeland, Marquez) and two who are 30 (Stroman, Gausman).   Those six all seem like they could have a shot at being in the 30+ club someday.   I wouldn’t have said that about Gausman two years ago, so you never know.   


 

[Just Regular]

B-Ref has Means at 9.7 WAR in his first 2.4 seasons, and with the missed time here and there within those seasons, I admit it caught me a little by surprise to see him at 5.0 WAR per 162 games.    Whether he's a keeper for us or pipeline fodder, the 30-start Scout Badge would be nice for him to get.

Even if Grayson can approach Jose Fernandez's brilliance (5.8 WAR per 162 games), Means' three Arb seasons aren't enough time for him to "Horse" together with him on peak Adley teams without Elias buying one or two FA years, which line up as Means' Age 32-33 seasons.

Nola, Wheeler, and even Bryce himself could be so beautiful for the July 2023 Orioles if the next season and a half are as hoped for, and Dombrowski for once in his career can't save a Win Now roster.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 2/12/2020 at 5:33 PM, Philip said:

On the other hand, remember that when we faced Detroit in 2014, we faced, and beat, three consecutive Cy Young winners.

Immediately after that, well, let’s not talk about that...

I think looking at this year's playoff and projecting forward, having 3 reliable starters who can given you 5 good innings and a great bullpen is also a winning combination.  For the 4th starter you can just patchwork a bullpen game.  The Braves definitely didn't win the World Series due to dominant starting pitching. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think looking at this year's playoff and projecting forward, having 3 reliable starters who can given you 5 good innings and a great bullpen is also a winning combination.  For the 4th starter you can just patchwork a bullpen game.  The Braves definitely didn't win the World Series due to dominant starting pitching. 

The thing is, it's really hard to get to the playoffs with three reliable starters that can give you five innings and a great bullpen.

[waroriole]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The thing is, it's really hard to get to the playoffs with three reliable starters that can give you five innings and a great bullpen.

It’s easier in the NL East. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, waroriole said:

It’s easier in the NL East. 

Sure.

But you can't run a pitching staff over 162 games like you can over the playoffs.

[Yossarian]

So given the data presented in the original post and the dearth of quality pitching in Baltimore over the last 40 years, what has been the problem?

Had it been lack of coaching and development of pitchers?

Lack of patience while a pitcher develops?

Or an unwlingmess to pay for a quality arm in free agency (or extension of a contract)?

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

The thing is, it's really hard to get to the playoffs with three reliable starters that can give you five innings and a great bullpen.

I'm not sure the D Rays even had 3 reliable starters.  Their starters with the most innings had the worst ERA.  No other starters could stay healthy. 

[Frobby]

Here's a 2022 update on this thread.   

-- Yu Darvish entered the 30+ rWAR club, at 30.2

-- Joining the 20+ club were Danny Duffy (20.2) and Marcus Stroman (20.0)

-- On the cusp: Kenley Jansen (19.6), Kevin Gausman (19.5), Hyun Jin Ryu  (19.5), Jhoulys Chacin (19.1) and Aroldis Chapman (19.0).  Needless to say, there are a number of others who could also cross the 20 WAR threshhold in 2023 with a good season.

[Roll Tide]

On 2/12/2020 at 12:18 PM, Frobby said:

From another thread:

 

So how rare is it to have a Horse, anyway?    And exactly who qualifies?

 

I had a look at every pitcher who debuted from 1990 forward.   You can break them down this way:

 

1990-2009 Debuts – most of these pitchers are retired now, and those who are active (rWAR marked with an *) have pretty much defined their careers by now.

60+ WAR – 9 pitchers.    These are your Hall of Famers, or near misses.   They include Pedro Martinez (83.9 rWAR), Mike Mussina (82.9), Zack Greinke (71.7*), Justin Verlander (70.9*), Clayton Kershaw (68.0*), Roy Halladay (64.3), C.C. Sabathia (63.0), Max Scherzer (60.3*) and Andy Pettitte (60.2).

50+ WAR – 7 pitchers, one of whom has a real good shot at graduating to the 60+ category.   They include Cole Hamels (59.6*), Mark Buehrle (59.2), Tim Hudson (58.1), Mariano Rivera (56.2), Johan Santana (51.7), Roy Oswalt (50.1) and Felix Hernandez (50.1*).    To state the obvious, only 6 of these were starting pitchers.

40+ WAR – 7 pitchers, one of whom has a solid shot at the 50+ category.    They include Bartolo Colon (46.1), Javier Vazquez (45.7), Jon Lester (45.5*), Brad Radke (45.2), Carlos Zambrano (43.9), Cliff Lee (43.5) and Adam Wainwright (40.2*)

30+ WAR – There were 18 of these, two of whom might move into the 40+ category.    I won’t list them all here, but the active ones who debuted in this period are David Price (39.7*), Madison Bumgarner (37.1*) and Johnny Cueto (32.3*).   

20+ WAR – There were 55 of these, plus one more right on the cusp.    The active ones who debuted in this period are  Gio Gonzalez (29.2*), Anibal Sanchez (26.7*), Ervin Santana (25.9*), J.A. Happ (21.8*), Clay Buchholz (21.8*), Jordan Zimmermann (21.3*), Ubaldo Jimenez (21.0*), Carlos Carrasco (20.7*) and Jhoulys Chacin (20.0*).   Oh yeah, I put Ubaldo in the “active” category!     The “cusp” player is Rick Porcello, who is at 19.9 and young enough where he seems pretty likely to finish above 20 WAR.    This category includes 5 pitchers who were primarily relievers, and one hybrid (Darren Oliver, who had a substantial career as a starter before switching to relief).  

 

I’ll pause here for a second.    That’s a total of 97 pitchers (if you include Porcello) in 20 years who reached 20+ WAR, 41 who reached 30+, 24 who reached 40+, 16 who reached 50+, 9 who reached 60+.     You can look at the names and decide for yourself where you want to draw the line as to who was (or is) a Horse.    The only two who are really associated with the Orioles are Mike Mussina (who, it should be noted, had the second highest WAR total on the entire list) and Jake Arrieta (25.5 rWAR, almost entirely with other teams).   

 

One way to look at this is that about one 40+ WAR pitcher comes along per year (23 in 20 years, plus two others who might get there).    A typical year might see one 40+, another 30+, and three additional 20+ guys.

 

2010-14 Debuts – virtually all of the pitchers from this era are still active and may have several good years in front of them.     But here are the ones who have already cracked the 20+ WAR threshold:

40+ WAR – Chris Sale (45.3).    Hard to tell how much he has left in the tank after last year, but he’s only 31 and so I’d say he has a good chance to join the 50+ club and still a shot at 60+ too.

30+ WAR – Jake deGrom (34.9), Stephen Strasburg (33.9) and Corey Kluber (33.1).    deGrom is 32 but at the peak of his performance, so 50+ seems quite possible and 40+ a near certainty.    Strasburg is 31 and I’d probably say the same of him.   Kluber is 34 and coming off injury.   I’d put his odds of cracking 40+ WAR at less than 50/50.

20+ WAR – Jake Arrieta (25.5), Jose Quintana (24.6), Gerrit Cole (24.0), Lance Lynn (22.2), Yu Darvish (21.8), Dallas Keuchel (20.3) and Julio Teheran (20.2).     Cole seems like a good bet to wind up in the 40+ range.     It’s uncertain whether any of the others listed will exceed 30+, though some could.    I count 16 other pitchers who debuted in this era who have a decent shot at 20+ WAR, though I am sure that some of those won’t make it and that some I am not thinking of will make it.

 

So, from that five year period, I’d say you have four probable 40+ guys (Sale, deGrom, Strasburg, Cole) and another who could get there in Kluber, though I wouldn’t count on it.   But there aren’t many other likely candidates from this period for 30+.   

 

Nobody who has debuted in 2015 or later has reached 20 WAR yet, and it would be very speculative to guess who will.   

 

Let’s hope that if we revisit this thread in 10 years, there will be some new Orioles pitchers on the list.  It's been quite a dry spell.

We had Mussina right?

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

We had Mussina right?

Yes.  He was mentioned in the OP, along with Arrieta.   Looks like Gausman will join them as the third 20 WAR “Horse” we’ve drafted in the last 30+ years.  

[Roll Tide]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.  He was mentioned in the OP, along with Arrieta.   Looks like Gausman will join them as the third 20 WAR “Horse” we’ve drafted in the last 30+ years.  

But, Angelos screwed up the Mussina negotiations. He should’ve been a lifer! The other two weren’t good here. It took Arrieta a number of other stops and Gausman 2. There is no telling wither would’ve figure it out here.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here's a 2022 update on this thread.   

-- Yu Darvish entered the 30+ rWAR club, at 30.2

Of course Darvish pitched 1268 innings in Japan prior to coming to MLB, going 93-38, 1.99 and throwing a complete game every third start.  So he's actually more like a 60+ rWAR player for his career. 

In 2011 for Nippon Ham he went 18-6, 1.44 with 276 strikeouts and 36 walks in 232 innings.  28 starts, 10 complete games, six shutouts.  That was the year Lee/Verlander/Halladay were all over 8.0 rWAR so I don't know if I'd argue he was the best pitcher in baseball, but maybe.