Mountcastle has first big MLB game

[weams]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Infield hits.  

I think there are some definite advantages to speed if the speedy player is a smart baserunner.    Per Baseball-Ref, in 2019 the difference in Baserunning runs between the best and worst player was 11 runs.    By team, the difference was 21 runs.    Not a big effect, but it’s there.    And those numbers don’t include infield hits and the batter taking extra bases on a batted ball (getting a double instead of a single or a triple instead of a double).   
 

 

I think that the thrown out at third or second numbers negate the folks who gambled on their wheels and won occasionally. Back in the days of Astroturf and concrete arenas the speed factored better and more often.  It does make it more exciting though and gives more opportunities for the challenge option to be invoked. I do think that the speedy guys probable can leg out some singles as long as the don't get cut down gambling on trying for two or three.  I am sure that Tango has looked at this or at least Litchman or Willman.

[weams]

4 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Gets in a pitcher's head.  Distracts him.  Gets in the fielders' heads.  How many times do you see fielders flub a ground ball because they know they've got a speedy runner.  Lots more infield hits for the speedy guys as well.

I think catergorizing offensive speed as having a negligible impact is incorrect, but I agree that the impact cannot be measured very well.

I think it is convenient to think that is really any more distracting than it is to the current hitter and to the positive flow of the offensive game. And I have just as good a methodology of measuring those premises. 

[weams]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's an exaggeration.  In baserunning plus double plays the difference between Rickey and Paul Konerko was over 20 wins.

Sure, overall basestealing is a net negative.  But then there are guys like Willie Wilson who got about 2/3rds of his 45 career WAR from being really fast.

In '62 Maury Wills went 104-for-117 stealing bases.  In baserunning and avoiding DPs he was over +20 runs.  On defense he's now seen as a -2 shortstop.  But he had a six-win season with a 99 OPS+ because speed.

Also, fast players tend to age better than slow players.  When Austin Hays is 33 he will probably still be able to play a corner (assuming he somehow figures out how to stay off the IL).  There's only so many positions you can slide down to if you're already slow at 23.

This is a bit dated, but a passage from a large rookie study Bill James published in the 1987 Baseball Abstract (nice little benefit of COVID teleworking, all my old baseball books are always five feet away):

“I Believe In Bill James” I am absolutely certain that a decrease in speed causes many to lose their defensive skills. I believe general aging causes eye hand  an coordination decline which sends many to slump at the plate, while that aging may also result in lost speed. 

[weams]

I think Ryan Mountcastle looks fast and  coordinated at the age of 23. 

[makoman]

46 minutes ago, weams said:

I think Ryan Mountcastle looks fast and  coordinated at the age of 23. 

I think he looks decently athletic, good enough. Which is why I thought he would probably be fine in left once he gets enough practice, it always seemed like he went down the spectrum mostly due to arm. I’m curious what the runs or wins difference is between an averageish fielding LF with average arm and an averageish LF with below average to poor arm. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, weams said:

I think that the thrown out at third or second numbers negate the folks who gambled on their wheels and won occasionally. Back in the days of Astroturf and concrete arenas the speed factored better and more often.  It does make it more exciting though and gives more opportunities for the challenge option to be invoked. I do think that the speedy guys probable can leg out some singles as long as the don't get cut down gambling on trying for two or three.  I am sure that Tango has looked at this or at least Litchman or Willman.

I don’t know that fast guys gamble and lose trying to take an extra base any more often than slow guys do.    It would be interesting to do a study of the top X players in sprint speed vs. the slowest X players and see what the data supported.    Just eyeballing the 15 major leaguers who made the most outs on the bases* last year, I see a lot of guys who are not particularly speedy, including our friends Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez and Jonathan Schoop.    
 

*OOB -- Outs on Base
Runner is put out while making a baserunning play.
Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit,
doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.
Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays.

[Number5]

7 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Overall the batter is negatively impacted by stuff going on on the bases, basically enough to cancel out any gains on the bases.

Team speed, fer cry sakes!

[Just Regular]

TOOTBLAN a slightly bemusing acronym out there if one wades into the Fangraphs/BP/Savant worldview (raises hand).  It’s sound matched it’s essence fairly well.

[tarheeloriole]

Scoring from first on a double is in my opinion the single greatest advantage that speed has on the game from an offensive standpoint

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, weams said:

I think Ryan Mountcastle looks fast and  coordinated at the age of 23. 

His 26.9 (ft/sec) sprint speed is good for 57.2# rank in MLB. In other words, he's a little above average at 23 years old. As I've said before, Mountcastle is not a base clogger and moves well for his size. Glad to see his early statcast numbers prove that.

[PHRESH]

1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

TOOTBLAN a slightly bemusing acronym out there if one wades into the Fangraphs/BP/Savant worldview (raises hand).  It’s sound matched it’s essence fairly well.

Don't forget about FARTSLAM 

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/6tgsxa/introducing_tootblans_cousinfartslam/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

[weams]

8 hours ago, tarheeloriole said:

Scoring from first on a double is in my opinion the single greatest advantage that speed has on the game from an offensive standpoint

J.J. Hardy scored. 

[DrungoHazewood]

58 minutes ago, weams said:

J.J. Hardy scored. 

I made a list of everyone with 200 plate appearances last year.  Then sorted by (basically) runs scored as a percentage of times on first base.  (R-HR)/(H-2B-3B-HR+BB+HBP) if you want to know.  It's not a perfect measure, but it's probably okay and it took three minutes.

Byron Buxton led the majors.  Eight of the top 10 had 10 or more steals.  Guys like Starling Marte and Kevin Pllar and Kevin Kiermaier and Billy Hamilton were in the top 20%.  Along with a few weird outliers like Pablo Sandoval.

The bottom of the list was Wellington Castillo, Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, Brian McCann.  Four of the slowest players in the league.

If you look at Orioles it's Villar, Wilkerson, Mancini, Smith, Martin at the top, Davis, Ruiz, Severino, Nunez at the bottom.

You can over-do it, over-emphasize.  You can end up in the nonsensical place baseball got in the 60s and 70s where Omar Moreno was leading off and making 600 outs a year.  But clearly speed has an impact on runs scored.

[weams]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I made a list of everyone with 200 plate appearances last year.  Then sorted by (basically) runs scored as a percentage of times on first base.  (R-HR)/(H-2B-3B-HR+BB+HBP) if you want to know.  It's not a perfect measure, but it's probably okay and it took three minutes.

Byron Buxton led the majors.  Eight of the top 10 had 10 or more steals.  Guys like Starling Marte and Kevin Pllar and Kevin Kiermaier and Billy Hamilton were in the top 20%.  Along with a few weird outliers like Pablo Sandoval.

The bottom of the list was Wellington Castillo, Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, Brian McCann.  Four of the slowest players in the league.

If you look at Orioles it's Villar, Wilkerson, Mancini, Smith, Martin at the top, Davis, Ruiz, Severino, Nunez at the bottom.

You can over-do it, over-emphasize.  You can end up in the nonsensical place baseball got in the 60s and 70s where Omar Moreno was leading off and making 600 outs a year.  But clearly speed has an impact on runs scored.

This is a good supporting argument. Thanks. 

[Pheasants]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I made a list of everyone with 200 plate appearances last year.  Then sorted by (basically) runs scored as a percentage of times on first base.  (R-HR)/(H-2B-3B-HR+BB+HBP) if you want to know.  It's not a perfect measure, but it's probably okay and it took three minutes.

Byron Buxton led the majors.  Eight of the top 10 had 10 or more steals.  Guys like Starling Marte and Kevin Pllar and Kevin Kiermaier and Billy Hamilton were in the top 20%.  Along with a few weird outliers like Pablo Sandoval.

The bottom of the list was Wellington Castillo, Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, Brian McCann.  Four of the slowest players in the league.

If you look at Orioles it's Villar, Wilkerson, Mancini, Smith, Martin at the top, Davis, Ruiz, Severino, Nunez at the bottom.

You can over-do it, over-emphasize.  You can end up in the nonsensical place baseball got in the 60s and 70s where Omar Moreno was leading off and making 600 outs a year.  But clearly speed has an impact on runs scored.

Sorry, I won't buy this even though I'm on the pro-fast guy side.  Because of tradition of having the fast guy at the top of the order or batting ninth, he's more likely to be followed by the better hitters in the lineup who drive him in.  The slow guys like Castillo, Davis are more likely to be at the bottom of the good hitter group and thus followed by players who are less likely to follow their hit with another hit.  If Castillo was batting 6th and followed by Davis and then another player batting .230 (I was going to use Ruiz, but Sunday he proved the exception), he's not likely to score, whereas an Alberto being followed by a Santandar and Iglesias (just using this year's averages) is more likely to score.  It goes back to why OBP and SLG replaced the counting stats as the better measures of hitting.