Mountcastle has first big MLB game

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I made a list of everyone with 200 plate appearances last year.  Then sorted by (basically) runs scored as a percentage of times on first base.  (R-HR)/(H-2B-3B-HR+BB+HBP) if you want to know.  It's not a perfect measure, but it's probably okay and it took three minutes.

Byron Buxton led the majors.  Eight of the top 10 had 10 or more steals.  Guys like Starling Marte and Kevin Pllar and Kevin Kiermaier and Billy Hamilton were in the top 20%.  Along with a few weird outliers like Pablo Sandoval.

The bottom of the list was Wellington Castillo, Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, Brian McCann.  Four of the slowest players in the league.

If you look at Orioles it's Villar, Wilkerson, Mancini, Smith, Martin at the top, Davis, Ruiz, Severino, Nunez at the bottom.

You can over-do it, over-emphasize.  You can end up in the nonsensical place baseball got in the 60s and 70s where Omar Moreno was leading off and making 600 outs a year.  But clearly speed has an impact on runs scored.

Perhaps true, but Pittsburgh still ended up winning a World Series at our expense with him there.

[DrungoHazewood]

 

20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Perhaps true, but Pittsburgh still ended up winning a World Series at our expense with him there.

Yep, that's baseball for you.  The season is so long, and there are so many contributing players and factors that you can get some of it very wrong and still win.  The '83 Orioles got a .562 OPS out of their third basemen, a .638 from second, and a .662 from center field and they won the whole thing.  Tim Stoddard and Dennis Martinez combined for 200 innings of an ERA near six. 

Everything doesn't have to go right, just most of it.

Side note, in '79 Omar the Outmaker actually had a .333 OBP, which isn't bad.  It was '82-83 where he had a .288 in 1300 PAs and that was really ugly. In '82 he had 686 PAs in the leadoff spot with a .294 OBP and 26 caught stealing.  Among Pirates with 50+ PAs he was 16th in OBP and he led off almost every single game.  He had a lower OBP than pitchers Don Robinson, Enrique Romo, and John Candelaria.

[DrungoHazewood]

30 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

Sorry, I won't buy this even though I'm on the pro-fast guy side.  Because of tradition of having the fast guy at the top of the order or batting ninth, he's more likely to be followed by the better hitters in the lineup who drive him in.  The slow guys like Castillo, Davis are more likely to be at the bottom of the good hitter group and thus followed by players who are less likely to follow their hit with another hit.  If Castillo was batting 6th and followed by Davis and then another player batting .230 (I was going to use Ruiz, but Sunday he proved the exception), he's not likely to score, whereas an Alberto being followed by a Santandar and Iglesias (just using this year's averages) is more likely to score.  It goes back to why OBP and SLG replaced the counting stats as the better measures of hitting.

It wasn't a perfect measure.  Yes, batting order has some impact on runs scored.  Pinch running has some impact on the numbers.  But a significant part of the rankings I presented were because of speed.

Here's another metric: in his career David Ortiz advanced an extra base on someone else's hit 25% of the time.  This can be found on bb-ref's advanced batting stats under baserunning.  Byron Buxton has advanced an extra base 66% of the time.  Wellington Castillo takes an extra base 27% of the time, Jonathan Villar 55% of the time.  Matt Wieters 23%, David Lough 55%.  Billy Hamilton 55%, Prince Fielder 22%.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

Yep, that's baseball for you.  The season is so long, and there are so many contributing players and factors that you can get some of it very wrong and still win.  The '83 Orioles got a .562 OPS out of their third basemen, a .638 from second, and a .662 from center field and they won the whole thing.  Tim Stoddard and Dennis Martinez combined for 200 innings of an ERA near six. 

Everything doesn't have to go right, just most of it.

Side note, in '79 Omar the Outmaker actually had a .333 OBP, which isn't bad.  It was '82-83 where he had a .288 in 1300 PAs and that was really ugly. In '82 he had 686 PAs in the leadoff spot with a .294 OBP and 26 caught stealing.  Among Pirates with 50+ PAs he was 16th in OBP and he led off almost every single game.  He had a lower OBP than pitchers Don Robinson, Enrique Romo, and John Candelaria.

The Todd Cruz thing as one of the weirdest thing the Orioles ever did and it goes to show you how much baseball has changed. Cruz had that great arm and was a plus defensive third baseman, but the Orioles had Glenn Gulliver in AAA who slashed .309/.464/.472/.936 with an amazing 117-37 BB-k ratio. On top of it. Gulliver had plus dWAR ratings in his short chances at the major league level at 3B though I don't remember much about his glove.

While the Orioles did win the World Series that year, so it's hard to fault them too much, they clearly would have been better with Gulliver at 3B rather than Cruz. But, Gulliver didn't hit for power and third baseman's clearly had to hit for power back then and Cruz did hit 16 home runs the year before so clearly he must've been a better option lol.

Gulliver is one of those guys that probably would have produced had they stuck with him instead of trading for Cruz who was a -0.4 WAR player despite his 0.8 dWAR. 

Gulliver is a guy who was under appreciated due to his lack of power and mediocre average, but he was an on base machine in the minors (.413 in 2925 AAA PAs) and a guy who probably would have gotten more of a shot in today's baseball.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

The Todd Cruz thing as one of the weirdest thing the Orioles ever did and it goes to show you how much baseball has changed. Cruz had that great arm and was a plus defensive third baseman, but the Orioles had Glenn Gulliver in AAA who slashed .309/.464/.472/.936 with an amazing 117-37 BB-k ratio. On top of it. Gulliver had plus dWAR ratings in his short chances at the major league level at 3B though I don't remember much about his glove.

While the Orioles did win the World Series that year, so it's hard to fault them too much, they clearly would have been better with Gulliver at 3B rather than Cruz. But, Gulliver didn't hit for power and third baseman's clearly had to hit for power back then and Cruz did hit 16 home runs the year before so clearly he must've been a better option lol.

Gulliver is one of those guys that probably would have produced had they stuck with him instead of trading for Cruz who was a -0.4 WAR player despite his 0.8 dWAR. 

Gulliver is a guy who was under appreciated due to his lack of power and mediocre average, but he was an on base machine in the minors (.413 in 2925 AAA PAs) and a guy who probably would have gotten more of a shot in today's baseball.

I remember (and I was 12 at the time, so who knows) that Cruz was touted as a very good shortstop, so he'd be nearly Brooks at third.  Didn't really work out that way, and not all shortstops have the reactions to play third.

I don't know about Gulliver.  There really isn't anyone like him in today's game.  He had a bit of power, 12 homers a couple years, but his bread-and-butter was just drawing walks.  My gut says that in today's game he'd be more like Joey Rickard.  Rickard had some .400+ OBP's in the minors, but with limited power and hitting .250 in the majors pitchers just challenged him all day long and his walk rate fell by half.

[Tony-OH]

59 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I remember (and I was 12 at the time, so who knows) that Cruz was touted as a very good shortstop, so he'd be nearly Brooks at third.  Didn't really work out that way, and not all shortstops have the reactions to play third.

I don't know about Gulliver.  There really isn't anyone like him in today's game.  He had a bit of power, 12 homers a couple years, but his bread-and-butter was just drawing walks.  My gut says that in today's game he'd be more like Joey Rickard.  Rickard had some .400+ OBP's in the minors, but with limited power and hitting .250 in the majors pitchers just challenged him all day long and his walk rate fell by half.

It's hard to say of course and at 13 years old, I was no scout so I can't say how he would have done, but I'm betting he would have been a better option than Todd Cruz that year. I remember Gulliver a bit and remember being him while playing wiffle ball because  had to bat left-handed. Speaking of that, I once hit a monster home run in wiffle ball while being Wayne Gross. Crazy that i can remember that. Probably because it landed on the roof of the house that no one thought we could reach. haha

 

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's hard to say of course and at 13 years old, I was no scout so I can't say how he would have done, but I'm betting he would have been a better option than Todd Cruz that year. I remember Gulliver a bit and remember being him while playing wiffle ball because  had to bat left-handed. Speaking of that, I once hit a monster home run in wiffle ball while being Wayne Gross. Crazy that i can remember that. Probably because it landed on the roof of the house that no one thought we could reach. haha

 

I remember a homer I hit in the side yard of my parents' house when I was batting lefty using Eddie's stance.  Went all the way into the street.  Had to be 100'.  Okay, maybe 75'.

[Pheasants]

9 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It wasn't a perfect measure.  Yes, batting order has some impact on runs scored.  Pinch running has some impact on the numbers.  But a significant part of the rankings I presented were because of speed.

Here's another metric: in his career David Ortiz advanced an extra base on someone else's hit 25% of the time.  This can be found on bb-ref's advanced batting stats under baserunning.  Byron Buxton has advanced an extra base 66% of the time.  Wellington Castillo takes an extra base 27% of the time, Jonathan Villar 55% of the time.  Matt Wieters 23%, David Lough 55%.  Billy Hamilton 55%, Prince Fielder 22%.

I like that one better. It's closely dependent on the speed rather than on the quality of the hitter behind the runner.  On the other hand, I keep slapping myself to wake up after arguing with Drungo.  I consider you the most knowledgeable person on this board.

[drdelaware]

Gulliver only hit .203 in 192 major league at bats.   I’m not so sure he would have been a better option than Cruz. Hard to say though.  Gulliver’s OBP was certainly better, but personally I’d take Cruz’s arm and defense.

Edited August 26, 2020 by drdelaware

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Pheasants said:

I like that one better. It's closely dependent on the speed rather than on the quality of the hitter behind the runner.  On the other hand, I keep slapping myself to wake up after arguing with Drungo.  I consider you the most knowledgeable person on this board.

Don't stop keeping me straight on things.  It's a combination of speed, OBP, context in the lineup and other factors.  All things being equal, you always want a .370 OBP guy leading off instead of a .330.  But it gets a little more debatable when the numbers are close.

[Chuck A]

16 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

It's hard to say of course and at 13 years old, I was no scout so I can't say how he would have done, but I'm betting he would have been a better option than Todd Cruz that year. I remember Gulliver a bit and remember being him while playing wiffle ball because  had to bat left-handed. Speaking of that, I once hit a monster home run in wiffle ball while being Wayne Gross. Crazy that i can remember that. Probably because it landed on the roof of the house that no one thought we could reach. haha

 

Wayne Gross.  He of the 11 hr and 18 rbi.  Mr Solo.

[DrungoHazewood]

33 minutes ago, Chuck A said:

Wayne Gross.  He of the 11 hr and 18 rbi.  Mr Solo.

There were people then who thought that was an inherent flaw.  Might have contributed to the end of his career.  He'd hit .216 and .235 for the O's, and had that RBI thing in '85, but had a 120 OPS+ both seasons.  Followed up a nearly .800 OPS season with a .369 OBP with getting released, spending most of the year in AAA and then retiring.

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, Chuck A said:

Wayne Gross.  He of the 11 hr and 18 rbi.  Mr Solo.

Fascinating thing about Wayne Gross was his day/night splits.  For his career, he had an .805 OPS by day, .688 at night.   In his two years with the O’s, 1.034/.672 in 1984, 1.063/.679 in 1985.   17 of his 33 Oriole homers came in day games.   I had a 13-game Sunday plan in those years, and Gross played like an absolute all-star whenever I went.   Shoulda played for the Cubs!

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fascinating thing about Wayne Gross was his day/night splits.  For his career, he had an .805 OPS by day, .688 at night.   In his two years with the O’s, 1.034/.672 in 1984, 1.063/.679 in 1985.   17 of his 33 Oriole homers came in day games.   I had a 13-game Sunday plan in those years, and Gross played like an absolute all-star whenever I went.   Shoulda played for the Cubs!

I looked up the normal day/night splits.  In the early days of lights there was a consistent 30-40 point OPS advantage to day games.  I'm sure the lights in MLB parks in 1940 wouldn't pass muster in the Sally League today.  But by 1980 or so that has mostly washed out, and today it's only a few points of OPS.  Consistently in favor of day, but pretty far down in the noise.

I bet Gross had vision problems. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Chuck A said:

Wayne Gross.  He of the 11 hr and 18 rbi.  Mr Solo.

Pretty sure mine was solo too!