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What will the O's 2021 draft be like?

oriolediehard

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oriolediehard Hangout Veteran Council

oriolediehard

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Due to COVID 19 I am asking will the O 's draft / all other MLB teams draft order be the same as the regular draft? Also it seems the O's got cheated when they had the number 2 pick and only got 6 picks when there is usually 40 picks. Too many bad teams worse than the O's this year for them to get a good pick.  What do you all think?

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hoosiers Hangout Grand Counsel

hoosiers

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The '21 draft order will be set by the Commissioner's office.  The following article hints that there is belief in front offices that the order will be set based upon some combination of 2019 and 2020 results.  The order could simply be based on 2020 results or the article suggests additional calculations -- either the average winning % of the 2019 and 2020 results or the cumulative winning % of 2019 and 2020 results.  It could be something else.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/its-unclear-how-mlb-will-set-2021-draft-order-heres-why-that-matters-a-lot-for-the-red-sox/?ocid=uxbndlbing

Any inclusion of the 2019 results would benefit the Os since we did so poorly in 2019.  I think we will be among the worst five to 10 teams when this season ends.  It may be reasonable to hope we receive a top five pick in 2021 if 2019 results are included.

Regarding the draft itself, there is also talk that it will take place later in the 2021 summer.  Given how little baseball was played in the 2019-2020 college and HS seasons, it may be very difficult to evaluate players the breadth of players in HS and college since there hasn't been quality evaluation in two seasons - in the case of HSers, since their sophomore years - assuming HS and college baseball is played in 2021.

It will make for an interesting draft - though if the '21 HS and college seasons are played, there would be more recent evaluation than existed for this past 2020 draft - and draft order.

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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3 hours ago, hoosiers said:

The '21 draft order will be set by the Commissioner's office.  The following article hints that there is belief in front offices that the order will be set based upon some combination of 2019 and 2020 results.  The order could simply be based on 2020 results or the article suggests additional calculations -- either the average winning % of the 2019 and 2020 results or the cumulative winning % of 2019 and 2020 results.  It could be something else.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/its-unclear-how-mlb-will-set-2021-draft-order-heres-why-that-matters-a-lot-for-the-red-sox/?ocid=uxbndlbing

Any inclusion of the 2019 results would benefit the Os since we did so poorly in 2019.  I think we will be among the worst five to 10 teams when this season ends.  It may be reasonable to hope we receive a top five pick in 2021 if 2019 results are included.

Regarding the draft itself, there is also talk that it will take place later in the 2021 summer.  Given how little baseball was played in the 2019-2020 college and HS seasons, it may be very difficult to evaluate players the breadth of players in HS and college since there hasn't been quality evaluation in two seasons - in the case of HSers, since their sophomore years - assuming HS and college baseball is played in 2021.

It will make for an interesting draft - though if the '21 HS and college seasons are played, there would be more recent evaluation than existed for this past 2020 draft - and draft order.

Good news for us ...as of right now there are 9 teams with less wins including the Sox, Gnats, and Angels

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CarrRun49 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

CarrRun49

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28 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Good news for us ...as of right now there are 9 teams with less wins including the Sox, Gnats, and Angels

Also good news... we're 4-12 in our last 16.  They're playing how we thought they would the whole season.  If they take their .250 winning percentage through the rest of the year, we'll end up with 22 wins.  Which, should put us right in line for another top 8 pick or so.

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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10 minutes ago, CarrRun49 said:

Also good news... we're 4-12 in our last 16.  They're playing how we thought they would the whole season.  If they take their .250 winning percentage through the rest of the year, we'll end up with 22 wins.  Which, should put us right in line for another top 8 pick or so.

But the average wins or cumulative should keep us in the top few.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Projected finishes from Fangraphs

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

             
Orioles 36 16 20 .444 -19 4.72 5.25 24 9 15 .392 -27 4.50 5.64 25 35 .423 -46 4.63 5.41
Nationals 34 12 22 .353 -16 4.56 5.03 26 13 13 .513 3 5.02 4.89 25 35 .422 -13 4.76 4.97
Diamondbacks 37 14 23 .378 -34 4.14 5.05 23 11 12 .472 -7 4.76 5.05 25 35 .414 -41 4.38 5.05
Mariners 37 15 22 .405 -43 4.22 5.38 23 9 14 .396 -23 4.05 5.07 24 36 .402 -66 4.15 5.26
Royals 37 14 23 .378 -32 3.84 4.70 23 10 13 .432 -16 4.52 5.21 24 36 .399 -48 4.10 4.90
Rangers 35 13 22 .371 -58 3.63 5.29 25 11 14 .422 -20 4.35 5.13 24 36 .392 -78 3.93 5.22
Angels 37 12 25 .324 -29 4.73 5.51 23 11 12 .490 -2 4.83 4.92 23 37 .388 -31 4.77 5.29
Red Sox 37 12 25 .324 -62 4.59 6.27 23 11 12 .468 -8 4.92 5.26 23 37 .379 -70 4.72 5.88
Pirates 34 10 24 .294 -52 4.03 5.56 26 11 15 .420 -21 4.31 5.11 21 39 .349 -73 4.15 5.36
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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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28 minutes ago, weams said:

Projected finishes from Fangraphs

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

             
Orioles 36 16 20 .444 -19 4.72 5.25 24 9 15 .392 -27 4.50 5.64 25 35 .423 -46 4.63 5.41
Nationals 34 12 22 .353 -16 4.56 5.03 26 13 13 .513 3 5.02 4.89 25 35 .422 -13 4.76 4.97
Diamondbacks 37 14 23 .378 -34 4.14 5.05 23 11 12 .472 -7 4.76 5.05 25 35 .414 -41 4.38 5.05
Mariners 37 15 22 .405 -43 4.22 5.38 23 9 14 .396 -23 4.05 5.07 24 36 .402 -66 4.15 5.26
Royals 37 14 23 .378 -32 3.84 4.70 23 10 13 .432 -16 4.52 5.21 24 36 .399 -48 4.10 4.90
Rangers 35 13 22 .371 -58 3.63 5.29 25 11 14 .422 -20 4.35 5.13 24 36 .392 -78 3.93 5.22
Angels 37 12 25 .324 -29 4.73 5.51 23 11 12 .490 -2 4.83 4.92 23 37 .388 -31 4.77 5.29
Red Sox 37 12 25 .324 -62 4.59 6.27 23 11 12 .468 -8 4.92 5.26 23 37 .379 -70 4.72 5.88
Pirates 34 10 24 .294 -52 4.03 5.56 26 11 15 .420 -21 4.31 5.11 21 39 .349 -73 4.15 5.36

Not saying they will be wrong, but funny how fangraphs has the Orioles finishing the worse out of all these teams. 

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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18 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It'll be a lot of people crowing about how the team didn't pick the guy they wanted.  And griping with Elias' draft strategy.

That's what you think. I'm preemptively mad that he took the guy all the experts wanted him to take. What good is a GM if he's just reading off the sportswriters' mock drafts?!?!?!

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