What will the O's 2021 draft be like?

[oriolediehard]

Due to COVID 19 I am asking will the O 's draft / all other MLB teams draft order be the same as the regular draft? Also it seems the O's got cheated when they had the number 2 pick and only got 6 picks when there is usually 40 picks. Too many bad teams worse than the O's this year for them to get a good pick.  What do you all think?

[hoosiers]

The '21 draft order will be set by the Commissioner's office.  The following article hints that there is belief in front offices that the order will be set based upon some combination of 2019 and 2020 results.  The order could simply be based on 2020 results or the article suggests additional calculations -- either the average winning % of the 2019 and 2020 results or the cumulative winning % of 2019 and 2020 results.  It could be something else.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/its-unclear-how-mlb-will-set-2021-draft-order-heres-why-that-matters-a-lot-for-the-red-sox/?ocid=uxbndlbing

Any inclusion of the 2019 results would benefit the Os since we did so poorly in 2019.  I think we will be among the worst five to 10 teams when this season ends.  It may be reasonable to hope we receive a top five pick in 2021 if 2019 results are included.

Regarding the draft itself, there is also talk that it will take place later in the 2021 summer.  Given how little baseball was played in the 2019-2020 college and HS seasons, it may be very difficult to evaluate players the breadth of players in HS and college since there hasn't been quality evaluation in two seasons - in the case of HSers, since their sophomore years - assuming HS and college baseball is played in 2021.

It will make for an interesting draft - though if the '21 HS and college seasons are played, there would be more recent evaluation than existed for this past 2020 draft - and draft order.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, hoosiers said:

The '21 draft order will be set by the Commissioner's office.  The following article hints that there is belief in front offices that the order will be set based upon some combination of 2019 and 2020 results.  The order could simply be based on 2020 results or the article suggests additional calculations -- either the average winning % of the 2019 and 2020 results or the cumulative winning % of 2019 and 2020 results.  It could be something else.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/its-unclear-how-mlb-will-set-2021-draft-order-heres-why-that-matters-a-lot-for-the-red-sox/?ocid=uxbndlbing

Any inclusion of the 2019 results would benefit the Os since we did so poorly in 2019.  I think we will be among the worst five to 10 teams when this season ends.  It may be reasonable to hope we receive a top five pick in 2021 if 2019 results are included.

Regarding the draft itself, there is also talk that it will take place later in the 2021 summer.  Given how little baseball was played in the 2019-2020 college and HS seasons, it may be very difficult to evaluate players the breadth of players in HS and college since there hasn't been quality evaluation in two seasons - in the case of HSers, since their sophomore years - assuming HS and college baseball is played in 2021.

It will make for an interesting draft - though if the '21 HS and college seasons are played, there would be more recent evaluation than existed for this past 2020 draft - and draft order.

Good news for us ...as of right now there are 9 teams with less wins including the Sox, Gnats, and Angels

[CarrRun49]

28 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Good news for us ...as of right now there are 9 teams with less wins including the Sox, Gnats, and Angels

Also good news... we're 4-12 in our last 16.  They're playing how we thought they would the whole season.  If they take their .250 winning percentage through the rest of the year, we'll end up with 22 wins.  Which, should put us right in line for another top 8 pick or so.

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, CarrRun49 said:

Also good news... we're 4-12 in our last 16.  They're playing how we thought they would the whole season.  If they take their .250 winning percentage through the rest of the year, we'll end up with 22 wins.  Which, should put us right in line for another top 8 pick or so.

But the average wins or cumulative should keep us in the top few.

[CarrRun49]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

But the average wins or cumulative should keep us in the top few.

I think we're in good shape, whichever way it turns out

[Roll Tide]

Agreed

[weams]

Projected finishes from Fangraphs

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Orioles	36	16	20	.444	-19	4.72	5.25	24	9	15	.392	-27	4.50	5.64	25	35	.423	-46	4.63	5.41
Nationals	34	12	22	.353	-16	4.56	5.03	26	13	13	.513	3	5.02	4.89	25	35	.422	-13	4.76	4.97
Diamondbacks	37	14	23	.378	-34	4.14	5.05	23	11	12	.472	-7	4.76	5.05	25	35	.414	-41	4.38	5.05
Mariners	37	15	22	.405	-43	4.22	5.38	23	9	14	.396	-23	4.05	5.07	24	36	.402	-66	4.15	5.26
Royals	37	14	23	.378	-32	3.84	4.70	23	10	13	.432	-16	4.52	5.21	24	36	.399	-48	4.10	4.90
Rangers	35	13	22	.371	-58	3.63	5.29	25	11	14	.422	-20	4.35	5.13	24	36	.392	-78	3.93	5.22
Angels	37	12	25	.324	-29	4.73	5.51	23	11	12	.490	-2	4.83	4.92	23	37	.388	-31	4.77	5.29
Red Sox	37	12	25	.324	-62	4.59	6.27	23	11	12	.468	-8	4.92	5.26	23	37	.379	-70	4.72	5.88
Pirates	34	10	24	.294	-52	4.03	5.56	26	11	15	.420	-21	4.31	5.11	21	39	.349	-73	4.15	5.36

[Moose Milligan]

It'll be a lot of people crowing about how the team didn't pick the guy they wanted.  And griping with Elias' draft strategy.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It'll be a lot of people crowing about how the team didn't pick the guy they wanted.  And griping with Elias' draft strategy.

I think we had one person that didn't like the top pick in 2019.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think we had one person that didn't like the top pick in 2019.

I admit I didn't like it at first but I was happy with the whole enchilada.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I admit I didn't like it at first but I was happy with the whole enchilada.

I'm too conservative to put as much weight on early season performance as they did this year.

[Tony-OH]

28 minutes ago, weams said:

Projected finishes from Fangraphs

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Orioles	36	16	20	.444	-19	4.72	5.25	24	9	15	.392	-27	4.50	5.64	25	35	.423	-46	4.63	5.41
Nationals	34	12	22	.353	-16	4.56	5.03	26	13	13	.513	3	5.02	4.89	25	35	.422	-13	4.76	4.97
Diamondbacks	37	14	23	.378	-34	4.14	5.05	23	11	12	.472	-7	4.76	5.05	25	35	.414	-41	4.38	5.05
Mariners	37	15	22	.405	-43	4.22	5.38	23	9	14	.396	-23	4.05	5.07	24	36	.402	-66	4.15	5.26
Royals	37	14	23	.378	-32	3.84	4.70	23	10	13	.432	-16	4.52	5.21	24	36	.399	-48	4.10	4.90
Rangers	35	13	22	.371	-58	3.63	5.29	25	11	14	.422	-20	4.35	5.13	24	36	.392	-78	3.93	5.22
Angels	37	12	25	.324	-29	4.73	5.51	23	11	12	.490	-2	4.83	4.92	23	37	.388	-31	4.77	5.29
Red Sox	37	12	25	.324	-62	4.59	6.27	23	11	12	.468	-8	4.92	5.26	23	37	.379	-70	4.72	5.88
Pirates	34	10	24	.294	-52	4.03	5.56	26	11	15	.420	-21	4.31	5.11	21	39	.349	-73	4.15	5.36

Not saying they will be wrong, but funny how fangraphs has the Orioles finishing the worse out of all these teams. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

18 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It'll be a lot of people crowing about how the team didn't pick the guy they wanted.  And griping with Elias' draft strategy.

That's what you think. I'm preemptively mad that he took the guy all the experts wanted him to take. What good is a GM if he's just reading off the sportswriters' mock drafts?!?!?!

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not saying they will be wrong, but funny how fangraphs has the Orioles finishing the worse out of all these teams. 

Don't they have the most difficult projected remaining schedule?