Jump to content

Buying a hurt pitcher

Just Regular

By Just Regular
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

Posted
Posted

Impending FA James Paxton had a setback in his flexor strain recovery.  If he has his TJ soon, he could have 18 months of recovery before OD 2022.

A couple 2-year contract comps in this vein.

San Diego signed Garrett Richards for 2019/2020 for 2/15.5 ($7M/$8.5M).  They've gotten 10 starts of a 4.25 ERA, and tested him out as a reliever in the 6th inning against the Dodgers today.

Minnesota signed Michael Pineda for 2018/2019 for 2/10 ($2M/$8M).  They got 26 starts of a 4.00 ERA last year in Year 2.  He got himself suspended, but it didn't stop the Twins from re-booking him for 2020/2021.

2022 Paxton would be another 125 IP candidate with Means, Akin, Kremer, Baumann, Hall, Rodriguez, Smith.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
hoosiers Hangout Grand Counsel

hoosiers

Posted
Posted

I personally think Paxton is over-rated.  

The Os rarely win these kind of highest bidder situations - someone is always willing to put up more $ or take more risk than us.

Paxton could be 33 before he pitches again in the majors.  Doesn't feel like the type of risk the Os should take.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Impending FA James Paxton had a setback in his flexor strain recovery.  If he has his TJ soon, he could have 18 months of recovery before OD 2022.

A couple 2-year contract comps in this vein.

San Diego signed Garrett Richards for 2019/2020 for 2/15.5 ($7M/$8.5M).  They've gotten 10 starts of a 4.25 ERA, and tested him out as a reliever in the 6th inning against the Dodgers today.

Minnesota signed Michael Pineda for 2018/2019 for 2/10 ($2M/$8M).  They got 26 starts of a 4.00 ERA last year in Year 2.  He got himself suspended, but it didn't stop the Twins from re-booking him for 2020/2021.

2022 Paxton would be another 125 IP candidate with Means, Akin, Kremer, Baumann, Hall, Rodriguez, Smith.

I don't like this kind of projection. Especially for a year that may be truncated. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I personally think Paxton is over-rated.  

The Os rarely win these kind of highest bidder situations - someone is always willing to put up more $ or take more risk than us.

Paxton could be 33 before he pitches again in the majors.  Doesn't feel like the type of risk the Os should take.  

I do too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

Posted
  • Author
Posted
33 minutes ago, weams said:

I don't like this kind of projection. Especially for a year that may be truncated. 

Totally fair observation.  It remains to be seen if the current forced turn off of some of the eggs from the golden goose will induce labor and management to have negotiations that are more productive heading towards 2022.

For Paxton healing specifically, one could argue that a first half strike is 3 more months to heal and then he only has to hold up for 15 starts instead of 30 before October.   This wasn't really about the real world externalities as much as a can to kick about whether Elias, etc. have seen enough progress to invest anything this offseason in 2022's MLB roster.

The 2017 Twins were already an 85-win team before doing this move to support their peak Berrios/Buxton/Sano teams; the 2018 Padres were coming off a streak of 90-loss seasons more like our current state.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • 3 months later...
Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

Posted
  • Author
Posted

The Dodgers think Kahnle '22 a risk worth venturing a reported $4.75M on; Ken Giles still out there in a fundamentally similar position if the guess is that the injury-faded version of a former star worth flirting with.

If it pans out, Kahnle will pitch 3-4% of the team's IP in season, then double or more in October.

Except for that one shining Andrew Miller moment, we probably have to buy 162-tools just to make the tournament, but it'll be lovely if in a few years the medium term forecast from there gives more opportunity for this sort of thing.

I will now go erase Kahnle from the target '22 contender roster.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
On 9/16/2020 at 10:05 PM, OrioleDog said:

Impending FA James Paxton had a setback in his flexor strain recovery.  If he has his TJ soon, he could have 18 months of recovery before OD 2022.

A couple 2-year contract comps in this vein.

San Diego signed Garrett Richards for 2019/2020 for 2/15.5 ($7M/$8.5M).  They've gotten 10 starts of a 4.25 ERA, and tested him out as a reliever in the 6th inning against the Dodgers today.

Minnesota signed Michael Pineda for 2018/2019 for 2/10 ($2M/$8M).  They got 26 starts of a 4.00 ERA last year in Year 2.  He got himself suspended, but it didn't stop the Twins from re-booking him for 2020/2021.

2022 Paxton would be another 125 IP candidate with Means, Akin, Kremer, Baumann, Hall, Rodriguez, Smith.

No

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • EddeeEddee
      Elias taking accountability

      By EddeeEddee · Posted

      Great post.  I like your optimism, and I'll try to believe this team can turn things around just in the nick of time like some classic Hollywood baseball movie.
    • EddeeEddee
      Hyde Hot Seat

      By EddeeEddee · Posted

      I think Elias has mostly done an excellent job with one exception -- he seems like he treats the bullpen like an afterthought.  I doubt that will happen again this coming offseason. I don't really blame him for the current offensive struggles overall.  Just too many injuries late in the season.  That said I don't understand how we went from dealing Austin Hays, Connor Norby and Ryan McKenna just so we could land the right handed bat of, gulp, Austin Slater.  
    • Baseball fandom
      Elias taking accountability

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      Man this team has no shot. Right now they may not even make it. 
    • EddeeEddee
      The New Guys

      By EddeeEddee · Posted

      Most of these guys are only playing because of injuries to starters.  But Austin Slater I'm guessing was brought in to replace the traded Austin Hays.  The problem is that Slater has shown little ability to hit lefties this year, after hitting them pretty well up to this season.  This must be why two teams dropped him before the O's picked him up.  I know he was let go much earlier in the season, but is Ryan McKenna actually worse than this guy?  I don't understand how the front office went from releasing McKenna to later trading Hays and Norby -- thinking their right handed bats could adequately be replaced by someone like Slater.  
    • Baseball fandom
      Hyde Hot Seat

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      I'm willing to give Elias some rope because of the strict limitations he was under with JA but he better not be so damn conservative again this year and let every serviceable FA out there sign with other teams while he's busy picking up reclamation projects again. Minus Burns of course.  
    • e16bball
      Hyde Hot Seat

      By e16bball · Posted

      I agree completely that it’s irrelevant whether it worked.  But I don’t agree that bunting is clearly the right decision in either scenario, and I think that decision gets worse if it’s intended to be a straight sacrifice rather than a bunt for a hit. To be clear, the outcome you’re seeking in tonight’s situation, for example — sacrifice the runners over to 2nd/3rd — lowers both your run expectancy for the inning (from 1.44 to 1.39) and your win expectancy for the game (from 38.8% to 37.1%). It increases the likelihood of scoring one run, but it decreases the likelihood of scoring two runs (which you needed to tie) and certainly of scoring three or more runs (which you needed to take the lead).  And that’s if you succeed in getting them to 2nd/3rd. Research indicates that 15-30% of sacrifice bunt attempts fail, so you have to bake in a pretty significant percentage of the time that you’d just be giving up a free out (or even just two free strikes, as on Sunday). The bunt attempt in the 3rd inning on Sunday (which my gut hates more than if they’d done it today) actually is less damaging to the win probability — decreasing it only very slightly from 60.2% to 59.8%. More time left in the game to make up for giving up outs, I guess, and the scoreboard payoff is a bit better (in the sense that at least you’d have a better chance to take the lead).   At the bottom of it, these things mostly come down to gut and pure chance. The percentages are rarely overwhelming in either direction, and so sometimes even a “lower-percentage” play may work better under some circumstances. You would have bunted both times. I wouldn’t have bunted either time. Hyde bunted one time but not the other. I don’t know that anyone is an idiot (or even clearly “wrong”) for their preference. Either approach could have worked. Sadly, none of them actually did.
    • Baseball fandom
      Hyde Hot Seat

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      Wasn't Hyde always thought of more or less as a caretaker? I'm on the fence about him coming back. I totally get the injuries and that needs to be taking into consideration but man this collapse some heads have to roll who's I'm  mot sure 

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...