A take on Keegan Akin

[Frobby]

“Akin was an intriguing rookie where a high BABIP (.358) led to a high WHIP (1.44) and ERA (4.56). His strikeouts (12.3 K/9) and walks (3.5 BB/9) usually point to a pitcher with a high 3.00’s ERA.

“I’ll start with the good. His fastball (14% SwStr%) and changeup (21% SwStr%) are elite and he threw them 79% of the time. The results are similar to Chris Paddack’s pitches (fastball: 8% SwStr%, change: 18% SwStr%). It’s the other 20% of pitches that cost him. His curveball (10% SwStr%) was below average and his slider (4% SwStr%) was complete garbage. Also, none of his pitches generate groundballs at an above-average rate, so he’s likely to be home run prone, especially in his small home park.

“With his current talent level, he should be a two-pitch pitcher who could mix in an occasional curveball. With just the two pitches, he’ll be limited twice through the order by his manager or the opposing team teeing off. There is a lot to like here, but the profile has limited upside.”

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/late-round-evaluations-akin-cueto-fleming-gibson-others/

[Just Regular]

Re-visiting Arthur Rhodes B-Ref, I would not have guessed his first 50 appearances across four seasons were 100% starts.  

He gets a free look with an easy rotation job starting next year, but Akin, Hall and Harvey are an aspirational A/B/C relievers for a 2022 bullpen that will hopefully scare somebody late in the year.   Obviously the odds are against going 3-for-3 getting SP out of Baumann/Hall/Rodriguez, and bullpen Hall is perhaps in play.

I think by the mid-20's the gap between super relievers like Akin and Hall and back rotation guys like Kremer and whoever of Lowther, Smith, Stallings, Bradish etc shows out behind Grayson, Means and Baumann won't be much more than like 25ish IP, and the manager will pick higher leverage for the 80-ish from the reliever Akin/Hall type guy.    Obviously there's a #3 SP-sized hole in that forecast if Baumann proves unavailable.   

Its almost impossible to overstate how Mike Leake pigeonholed Kremer is in my mind as a set and forget #4 SP who might not make your postseason roster.

By entering 2023, if an SEC ace like Leiter, Hill or Rocker with some new wart becomes our pick this July they could be in the picture too.  We seem to like the SEC, though I couldn't say if that is more than anyone else - just looking at Kjerstad reach followed by Westburg/Servideo, and selection of Smith and Stallings in recent trades there.  Maybe that is all a byproduct of those few weeks of 2020 SEC before the shutdown being the highest level minor league games played all year.

Unless Akin really astonishes with a third pitch breakout, I suspect him remaining among the team's 5 best SP more than another year or two will be a bad sign, but the game itself is actively searching for his Glass Half Full and I think a contributor is there.

[HowAboutThat]

The “win” stat is becoming much less important, and I wonder if tandem pitchers are going to be much more of a thing. A slow crafty guy like Alex Wells, and then three innings later, a fireballer like Tanner Scott Or some combination like that, might give Akin a chance to really shine. 
i’m really happy with how he did, and excited about next season.

I wonder if one of the teams with a bigger stadium might be interested in him?

[Moose Milligan]

This is where you hope analytics take hold of a guy and help him shape his pitch selection.  

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is where you hope analytics take hold of a guy and help him shape his pitch selection.  

Maybe they could trade him to the Angels?

[Moose Milligan]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Maybe they could trade him to the Angels?

I don't believe Bundy was for real last year. 

[ChosenOne21]

Maybe if he scraps the slider and focuses on the curveball it improves a little? Doesn't sound like he's that far away from being a decent starting pitcher

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't believe Bundy was for real last year. 

I don't either but having a guy throw his better pitches more often doesn't strike me as using cutting edge analytics.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't either but having a guy throw his better pitches more often doesn't strike me as using cutting edge analytics.

How long have you watched the Orioles?

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

How long have you watched the Orioles?

What does that have to do with cutting edge analytics?

[VaBird1]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is where you hope analytics take hold of a guy and help him shape his pitch selection.  

I hope he is more focused on pitch design if he has two really good pitches.  A third pitch would be huge.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, VaBird1 said:

I hope he is more focused on pitch design if he has two really good pitches.  A third pitch would be huge.

Not everyone is capable of developing three plus or even average pitches.  Two solid pitches with a third "show me" pitch can be better than using a poor third and fourth pitch.

[VaBird1]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not everyone is capable of developing three plus or even average pitches.  Two solid pitches with a third "show me" pitch can be better than using a poor third and fourth pitch.

Perhaps, but I think that mindset doesn’t fit in with this regime.  Can’t hurt to try to get better.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

Perhaps, but I think that mindset doesn’t fit in with this regime.  Can’t hurt to try to get better.

If you spend resources to attempt to refine a third pitch when you could instead be expending those resources on some other way to improve you could in fact be hurting your overall development.

To bring up Gausman again, I think, in hindsight, he would have been better off working on the command of his FB/Change/Split instead of screwing around with various types of mediocre sliders and curves.

[VaBird1]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you spend resources to attempt to refine a third pitch when you could instead be expending those resources on some other way to improve you could in fact be hurting your overall development.

To bring up Gausman again, I think, in hindsight, he would have been better off working on the command of his FB/Change/Split instead of screwing around with various types of mediocre sliders and curves.

Except the team had not purchased the equipment.  Now they have.