Santander drawing interest

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I just think this is lazy thinking.

If we don't have either Mancini or Santander in 2022, we'll be without 2 of our top 3-4 bats (currently). We can replace 1 with Rutschman, but he's already going to be there, so that doesn't count. 

Is Diaz, who hasn't hit as well in AA as either of the two we'd be losing, going to replace one of them? Is Kjerstad going to that fast? Probably not, so now you're replacing them with free agents that will cost more for similar production on a team that isn't signing free agents. 

They wouldn't be replaced. 

No, lazy is thinking you can’t replace around 5ish WAR.  That’s what you are saying and doing.  What I’m saying is the exact opposite of lazy.  It’s making several different moves to set yourself up now and for the long term.  Standing pat is lazy.

Not only do I think they can do this, this is the scenario I expect to happen.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LookinUp said:

That's immaterial. What I'm saying is that if we trade Santander and Mancini, we're not replacing them for 2022, which means we're less likely to be competitive in 2022.

It's arguable whether we should do this, but the effect would be a less competitive team in 2022.

Yep.

If our GM decides to hamstring the team's competitiveness in 2022 the team will be less competitive in 2022.

I'll agree with you on that one.

I won't agree that trading one or both makes being less competitive inevitable.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

No they aren’t.  You can easily still win in 2022 without these guys.

Its not like you are trying to replace Trout and Tatis or something.

Santander is a valuable piece. Guys who are worth 1.5 WAR for all-round good play are not falling out of trees, yet you seem to think they are as common as bad rumors.  I’m happy to trade him, if that’s what Elias wants, but no way will we easily replace his production with out in-house guys

[LookinUp]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, lazy is thinking you can’t replace around 5ish WAR.  That’s what you are saying and doing.  What I’m saying is the exact opposite of lazy.  It’s making several different moves to set yourself up now and for the long term.  Standing pat is lazy.

Not only do I think they can do this, this is the scenario I expect to happen.

I think the cost of replacing that production through FA would far outweigh the prospects received in a trade. I also don't see that fitting Elias' profile under Angelos. Maybe if we're sold.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think the cost of replacing that production through FA would far outweigh the prospects received in a trade. I also don't see that fitting Elias' profile under Angelos. Maybe if we're sold.

Doesn’t have to be through FA to replace them.  
 

And if they are going to win in 2022, they will have to delve into the FA market.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, Philip said:

Santander is a valuable piece. Guys who are worth 1.5 WAR for all-round good play are not falling out of trees, yet you seem to think they are as common as bad rumors.  I’m happy to trade him, if that’s what Elias wants, but no way will we easily replace his production with out in-house guys

There were 171 offensive players in 2019 that had a 1.5 WAR or higher (of players who had at least 100 at bats).

That’s 40-45% of the league..5-6 offensive players per team.

So yea, that’s not hard production to find.

[LookinUp]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Doesn’t have to be through FA to replace them.  

Highly unlikely to replace them internally, so it's either FA or other trades. So now we're talking about churning trades in hopes of finding better unknowns than the knowns we have now (who in theory are 2 of our 4ish best hitters). 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LookinUp said:

Highly unlikely to replace them internally, so it's either FA or other trades. So now we're talking about churning trades in hopes of finding better unknowns than the knowns we have now (who in theory are 2 of our 4ish best hitters). 

Highly unlikley?  We've got Diaz and Krjestad for RF and plenty of questionable gloves they can stick at first.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Highly unlikely to replace them internally, so it's either FA or other trades. So now we're talking about churning trades in hopes of finding better unknowns than the knowns we have now (who in theory are 2 of our 4ish best hitters). 

Yep..that type of stuff happens all the time.  Far from lazy and not overly difficult.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Highly unlikley?  We've got Diaz and Krjestad for RF and plenty of questionable gloves they can stick at first.

You would think we are trying to replace first ballot HOFers in their prime.

After 2014, the Os lost guys like Cruz and Markakis and were contenders for the playoffs in 2015 and made it in 2016.

When Pujols left St Louis, they went to the playoffs anyway.

Teams lose players all the time, better ones than Mancini and Santander and somehow, I guess through a series of miracles according to how it seems LookinUp looks at things, are able to overcome those losses.

[Jammer7]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You would think we are trying to replace first ballot HOFers in their prime.

After 2014, the Os lost guys like Cruz and Markakis and were contenders for the playoffs in 2015 and made it in 2016.

When Pujols left St Louis, they went to the playoffs anyway.

Teams lose players all the time, better ones than Mancini and Santander and somehow, I guess through a series of miracles according to how it seems LookinUp looks at things, are able to overcome those losses.

That 2015 team had other guys step up to carry the load, but I do not know that Travis Snider and Delmon Young replaced anyone. That cite by you actually undermines your point. 

The current roster only has a few professional hitters in Mancini, Santander and probably Mountcastle. There is talent elsewhere, and we expect growth from Hays and Severino, and perhaps Diaz, Ruiz and Mullins. But the roster is nowhere near as talented as the former team you speak of. Those two guys are much more important to this team, production wise. That is not to say they cannot be replaced. I just don’t find it’s not as easy as your opinion states. 

I also do not think the Orioles will be contending for a playoff spot until 2024 at the earliest. And I do not think either Santander nor Mancini will be in an Orioles uniform then. It is a little sad to think that, as I like both as players, but the business side of things dictates that keeping them is not the smart move. Elias is a smart fella. 

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

That 2015 team had other guys step up to carry the load, but I do not know that Travis Snider and Delmon Young replaced anyone. That cite by you actually undermines your point. 

The current roster only has a few professional hitters in Mancini, Santander and probably Mountcastle. There is talent elsewhere, and we expect growth from Hays and Severino, and perhaps Diaz, Ruiz and Mullins. But the roster is nowhere near as talented as the former team you speak of. Those two guys are much more important to this team, production wise. That is not to say they cannot be replaced. I just don’t find it’s not as easy as your opinion states. 

I also do not think the Orioles will be contending for a playoff spot until 2024 at the earliest. And I do not think either Santander nor Mancini will be in an Orioles uniform then. It is a little sad to think that, as I like both as players, but the business side of things dictates that keeping them is not the smart move. Elias is a smart fella. 

You have no idea how talented the team will be in 2022 to make that assumption.  I’m expecting a contending team (for a WC ) in 2022.  
 

Either way, we aren’t replacing great players in Mancini and Santander.  The team can still win without them.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You have no idea how talented the team will be in 2022 to make that assumption.  I’m expecting a contending team (for a WC ) in 2022.  
 

Either way, we aren’t replacing great players in Mancini and Santander.  The team can still win without them.

I don't trust the pitching to be ready in 2022.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't trust the pitching to be ready in 2022.

I think it can be good enough because I really like the upside of the pen.  I feel good enough about what we have, that if they can add a solid vet starter that we should be good.

I just think we could have a shut down pen and that can be huge for anyone.  I do think it’s likely we will have to add a good arm in that pen but I like what we have.

[Jammer7]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You have no idea how talented the team will be in 2022 to make that assumption.  I’m expecting a contending team (for a WC ) in 2022.  
 

Either way, we aren’t replacing great players in Mancini and Santander.  The team can still win without them.

I have as much of an idea and opinion as you do. A WC spot would be a pleasant surprise, but that is optimistic in my opinion.