I just logged in and was thinking about Miller as a starter for next season, and whether he would make as much sense as Skubal does... and here you've starting a thread about the same thing. LOL
It's hard to say what it would take to get Miller, but having him an additional five seasons would be incredible. I'd think the packages would be somewhat similar in value, but that's just a guess.
Just some observations and reflections on this year's draft and the strategy in general...
In one thread I defended the emphasis on position players in high rounds, disparaging pitchers as "cannon fodder." Seeing all the pitchers taken in the lower rounds amplifies this take. To expand the analogy to a military "draft," to me this year's draft class especially looks like staffing the officers corps from the best recruits, the higher rounds. Then fill out the ranks of cannon fodder (perishable pitchers) in quantity from the lower rounds.
A post by Frobby in a thread on closers amplifies this point. How many top closers are effective for more than a few years? Same with top starting pitchers. Contrast the longer careers at the top of their game for position players. At the other end of the scale, look how many bullpens are revolving doors of low draft picks, waiver claims, reclamation projects. Sorry for not substantiating all this with researched stats: it's an impression, over many years.
Zoom in to what it's like to throw an unproven reliever out there. He might be lights out, for a few innings, a few outings or a season or two. Great! Rinse and repeat. Hello, Albert Suarez. Goodbye, Fuji. A hitter (and fielder) needs many more repetitions to get a good read on their ability (see: Jim Traber, Jackson Holliday).
So to me this year's draft is an optimum strategy overall (even tho they claim every pick is BPA). Take your few surer things first, the position guys to rely on. Then have lots of "maybe" arms in reserve, because you'll need them, to burn quantity and see what wants to stick when the time comes.
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