How long do the O’s need to be bad

[Pickles]

I think this question is framed completely wrong.  And I think it leads to a lot of cross talk.

The question isn't, "How long do the O's need to be bad?"  You don't need to be bad to build a top notch farm system.  It helps.  It can speed the process up, but it isn't necessary.  

This isn't the issue.  The issue is:

1) How long does it take to build a top-notch farm system starting from the position the O's were in when Elias took over?

2) How long does it take for a top-notch farm system to translate to having a winning MLB team.

 

The answer to question one is debatable.  The O's had a bad farm system when Elias arrived, but some of the talent which makes up its superior current ranking was already present.  I, for one, think it takes a minimum of 3-5 years to develop a strong farm system, and not merely a collection of strong prospects.  Elias, despite individual moves which I might disagree with, seems to be making more progress to that end than any of his predecessors since the 70s.

The answer to number two is clearer: Depends, but it takes some time.  I remember when the Royals assembled "The Greatest Farm System in History;" well, then they went and got their asses kicked three more years until they brought in a couple vet pitchers and then they started winning pennants.  

I have been cautioning some of the optimism I have read on this board for the last few years.  There's been a lot of in 2021 talk, or in 2022 talk.  To make an O's analogy, we're in the 2009 part of this rebuild.  There are still several losing seasons in front of us- at least imo.  In 2-3 years, we could have a strong farm system.  And, imo, winning is probably about 2-3 years behind that.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

Ok. My youthful cartooning began with Warner bros and ended with Speed Racer so I’m not up on my Casper references.

but I can Marvin The Martian with you all day long!

One of the most underrated cartoon characters.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

1) How long does it take to build a top-notch farm system starting from the position the O's were in when Elias took over?

 

The answer to question one is debatable.  The O's had a bad farm system when Elias arrived, but some of the talent which makes up its superior current ranking was already present.  I, for one, think it takes a minimum of 3-5 years to develop a strong farm system, and not merely a collection of strong prospects.  Elias, despite individual moves which I might disagree with, seems to be making more progress to that end than any of his predecessors since the 70s.

 

Mariners went from 30th to second (BA) in I think three years.

And they didn't have to lose 100 games to do it.

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mariners went from 30th to second (BA) in I think three years.

And they didn't have to lose 100 games to do it.

Winning a lot of divisions, eh?

[HowAboutThat]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

One of the most underrated cartoon characters.

Imagine the process:

“OK, guys, we need a new character what do you suggest?”

how long did it take to get to “Martian”?

And how did they design THAT?

and the voice, the story line, the dialogue, all of it, puts Hanna Barbara to shame. Genius, all of it.

[Pickles]

Addition to not be completely snarky:

Rankings aren't definite.  It's nice when rankings improve but that doesn't mean it's reality.  It's the perception of reality.

[Pickles]

I'm sorry to make multiple posts but I can't edit.

It's also to use Andy MacPhail's phrase. "A snapshot in time."

It is possible to have a solid farm system ranking, and be terrible at finding and developing players.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Winning a lot of divisions, eh?

The #2 ranking was for this season.

Have you seen the current standings?

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=mlb+standings#sie=lg;/g/11lfcnyhhs;4;/m/09p14;st;fp;1;;

So yea, it's going OK for them so far.

And yada, yada, yada rankings are not the be all end all.

But it doesn't have to take 5 years of tanking to build a farm system.

[Pickles]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

The #2 ranking was for this season.

Have you seen the current standings?

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=mlb+standings#sie=lg;/g/11lfcnyhhs;4;/m/09p14;st;fp;1;;

So yea, it's going OK for them so far.

Well, good for them.  I'm not sure I'd be planting a flag if I was them, but they play in probably the worst division in baseball, so they have a chance.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Well, good for them.  I'm not sure I'd be planting a flag if I was them, but they play in probably the worst division in baseball, so they have a chance.

National League Central says Hi!

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Philip said:

Ok. My youthful cartooning began with Warner bros and ended with Speed Racer so I’m not up on my Casper references.

Whaaat?    Speed Racer lasted all of two years in original episodes (tons of syndicated reruns).    Casper the Friendly Ghost was created in 1939 and was still featured in shows as late as 2012, plus a feature film.   There is no way you could have grown up in America without encountering Casper.    Next thing you know you’ll be telling me you never heard of Woody Woodpecker!!

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

National League Central says Hi!

Debatable.  I'm surprised nobody is talking about how awful the Rangers are.

It *doesn't* take five years of tanking to build a farm system.

It *can* take five years.

Again, you miss the crucial factor.

The tanking isn't what is building the farm system.  It can help.  It can speed up the process.  But it isn't actually the positive development.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Debatable.  I'm surprised nobody is talking about how awful the Rangers are.

It *doesn't* take five years of tanking to build a farm system.

It *can* take five years.

Again, you miss the crucial factor.

The tanking isn't what is building the farm system.  It can help.  It can speed up the process.  But it isn't actually the positive development.

It *can* take fourteen years.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

It *can* take fourteen years.

Again, you miss the point.

We lost for fourteen years.  We never built a good farm system in all that time.

Despite some years having high rankings based on high draft picks.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

19 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think this question is framed completely wrong.  And I think it leads to a lot of cross talk.

The question isn't, "How long do the O's need to be bad?"  You don't need to be bad to build a top notch farm system.  It helps.  It can speed the process up, but it isn't necessary.  

This isn't the issue.  The issue is:

1) How long does it take to build a top-notch farm system starting from the position the O's were in when Elias took over?

2) How long does it take for a top-notch farm system to translate to having a winning MLB team.

 

The answer to question one is debatable.  The O's had a bad farm system when Elias arrived, but some of the talent which makes up its superior current ranking was already present.  I, for one, think it takes a minimum of 3-5 years to develop a strong farm system, and not merely a collection of strong prospects.  Elias, despite individual moves which I might disagree with, seems to be making more progress to that end than any of his predecessors since the 70s.

The answer to number two is clearer: Depends, but it takes some time.  I remember when the Royals assembled "The Greatest Farm System in History;" well, then they went and got their asses kicked three more years until they brought in a couple vet pitchers and then they started winning pennants.  

I have been cautioning some of the optimism I have read on this board for the last few years.  There's been a lot of in 2021 talk, or in 2022 talk.  To make an O's analogy, we're in the 2009 part of this rebuild.  There are still several losing seasons in front of us- at least imo.  In 2-3 years, we could have a strong farm system.  And, imo, winning is probably about 2-3 years behind that.

I think there's a big difference between having a top Farm System per the offseason Top 100 pundit rankings, having a Farm System stocked with true high-ceiling talent, and having a Farm System that can actually develop players. There's something to be said for all of those things.

The Orioles problem for a long time has been they cannot develop pitching, in spite of having high draft picks who were Top 100 prospects. My hope  was that Elias would reform the Farm System to create a system that could successfully develop talent into big league success, especially pitchers. I think its still a little early to judge him on that, but Dylan Bundy's success with the Angels hasn't been a confidence booster. Likewise, the talent that Elias has added to the Orioles Top Prospects has been relatively uninspiring as well. I do not count obvious picks like Rutschman and other high-picks as successes for the Elias regime. You just can't whiff on those.

Overall, I think the current rebuild is in its infancy - like you mentioned. Outside of DL Hall and GrayRod - the impact pitching talent has been pretty slim. Without success from them, it might be a long while before things turnaround. I was super excited about the Elias hire at first, but my enthusiasm has diminished rapidly as the results have looked more lackluster with time. I would not be surprised if we're in store for a lot more lousy baseball. And, I wouldn't be surprised if the next winning team comes under the watch of another GM.