Jorge Lopez keeps improving

[wildcard]

Lopez made 6 starts in May and had a 3.68 ERA in 29.1 IP   His last 2 starts have been 6 IP.   Two other starts were 5 innings or more.   His WHIP in May was still quite high at 1.43 so he still has work to do in the area.  This is a huge improvement of his April 7.48 ERA.

If Lopez continues to improve he is positioning himself to stay in the starting rotation and be part of the 2022 team.

[maybenxtyr]

44 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Lopez made 6 starts in May and had a 3.68 ERA in 29.1 IP   His last 2 starts have been 6 IP.   Two other starts were 5 innings or more.   His WHIP in May was still quite high at 1.43 so he still has work to do in the area.  This is a huge improvement of his April 7.48 ERA.

If Lopez continues to improve he is positioning himself to stay in the starting rotation and be part of the 2022 team.

I don't know about 2022 but he's going to most likely get all of 2021 to show what he's capable of. I'm glad he's showing improvement...any positive in this season is a good thing.

[Moose Milligan]

wildcard and the curious case of the small sample size.

While I can appreciate the optimism, Lopez has a long way to go before we can count him for any future plans.  It was a good month for him from some perspectives but in fairness, wildcard noted that the WHIP was pretty high.  

We'll see if he can keep it up but I'm not really getting my hopes up.  He's shown that he is what he is over the course of his career.  Without any drastic changes, he'll probably be able to continue to be that guy with spurts of reasonably good performance.

[LocoChris]

It’s good to see him doing better, I think ultimately he’s bullpen material though. 

[Camden_yardbird]

I said in a thread ar the end of April when people were calling for Jorge to be benched that his underlying statistics showed abpitcher who was going to improve, and he has done that.  That said, without some changes in his pitch mix, which largely show similar movement, he is a little capped at what could be a league average pitcher.  He weirdly, in a world where spin rate is king, ranks in the 1st percentile (bad) for spin rate on his FB.

Conversely, I also said in that thread that we are about to see some Matt Harvey regression, and we have, but to those calling for Harvey to be jettisoned I would say his underlying statitistics (things like keeping balls off barrels and hard hit rate, xERA) suggest he might be better off than Lopez long term.  In fact other than. His current 3 game skid Harvey's last 250 PA suggest a very positive trend. 

Both are about league average pitchers at their best, and that can be valuable.  Would love to see them be able to pitch with a margin of error that us not razor thin (i.e. time for some bats and bullpen to show up).

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

wildcard and the curious case of the small sample size.

While I can appreciate the optimism, Lopez has a long way to go before we can count him for any future plans.  It was a good month for him from some perspectives but in fairness, wildcard noted that the WHIP was pretty high.  

We'll see if he can keep it up but I'm not really getting my hopes up.  He's shown that he is what he is over the course of his career.  Without any drastic changes, he'll probably be able to continue to be that guy with spurts of reasonably good performance.

I said if he continues to improve.    And there is nothing about SSS in that statement.   They changed his delivery to the point that he is hitting 96/97 mph with control regularly.   His off speed pitches have been showing good control.   I am encouraged but he has to keep doing it.

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I said if he continues to improve.    And there is nothing about SSS in that statement.   They changed his delivery to the point that he is hitting 96/97 mph with control regularly.   His off speed pitches have been showing good control.   I am encouraged but he has to keep doing it.

Haha, you're right, I forgot who I'm dealing with here.  6 starts and 29.1 IP to a 3.68 ERA is a small sample size for anyone else but it's rather large for you.

I'm not as encouraged due to the 1.4 WHIP.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Haha, you're right, I forgot who I'm dealing with here.  6 starts and 29.1 IP to a 3.68 ERA is a small sample size for anyone else but it's rather large for you.

I'm not as encouraged due to the 1.4 WHIP.

Its the recap on the month of May.    How the heck do you make it bigger than a month?  Just keep the pessimism coming Moose. Maybe you and Corn can get together and have a doldrum party.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, wildcard said:

Its the recap on the month of May.    How the heck do you make it bigger than a month?  Just keep the pessimism coming Moose. Maybe you and Corn can get together and have a doldrum party.

I don't think I'm out of line in suggesting that one month of pitching is a small sample size, wildcard.   How the heck do you make it bigger than a month?  Look at his whole season so far, that's how.  Even then, it's still a pretty small sample size.  

You can call it pessimism, I call it reality.  Lopez hasn't been a good pitcher for most of his career.  I will agree with you there's some upside, particularly if the Orioles wanted to use him as a guy who only goes twice through a lineup. 

[Camden_yardbird]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Haha, you're right, I forgot who I'm dealing with here.  6 starts and 29.1 IP to a 3.68 ERA is a small sample size for anyone else but it's rather large for you.

I'm not as encouraged due to the 1.4 WHIP.

1.4 WHIP does not worry me as much.  Lopez has a very good overall walk rate.  It does suggest he is giving up more hits, but the quality of those hits and the defense matters.  At 51% GB rate, give him the 2014 Orioles infield defense and you have a pitcher who is at or even above league average.

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I said if he continues to improve.    And there is nothing about SSS in that statement.   They changed his delivery to the point that he is hitting 96/97 mph with control regularly.   His off speed pitches have been showing good control.   I am encouraged but he has to keep doing it.

His str% is below league average. His walk rate is high. He isnt showing control regularly.

He has shown some moderate improvements this month.  He also got to face a struggling twins team twice (although they are currently 12th in the league in runs), the Nats who are have a terrible offense and he faced Boston in the final game of a series where it looked like their offense was sleepwalking though the game.  An unusual game for them swinging at a lot of pitches, early outs, etc...still, he has looked a little better in a very small sample size.
 

He’s still not a ML starter and should be in the pen, where he is more valuable.

 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think I'm out of line in suggesting that one month of pitching is a small sample size, wildcard.   How the heck do you make it bigger than a month?  Look at his whole season so far, that's how.  Even then, it's still a pretty small sample size.  

You can call it pessimism, I call it reality.  Lopez hasn't been a good pitcher for most of his career.  I will agree with you there's some upside, particularly if the Orioles wanted to use him as a guy who only goes twice through a lineup. 

Another negative post by Moose.  No surprise there.   You basically don't understand what is occurring with Lopez.   They changed his mechanic and his approach to be more aggressive in the strike zone.  Its been a process since the beginning of the season.   He has steady improve how deep he is going into game for 4 innings to now 6 innings  in his last two outings.  

I get that he can't understand that.  Its a pity that you can't and just wallow in your negativity.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

1.4 WHIP does not worry me as much.  Lopez has a very good overall walk rate.  It does suggest he is giving up more hits, but the quality of those hits and the defense matters.  At 51% GB rate, give him the 2014 Orioles infield defense and you have a pitcher who is at or even above league average.

His Bb rate is 4..that’s not very good.

His BABiP is basically in the range of expectations, so he hasn’t been unlucky in that regards either.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Another negative post by Moose.  No surprise there.   You basically don't understand what is occurring with Lopez.   They changed his mechanic and his approach to be more aggressive in the strike zone.  Its been a process since the beginning of the season.   He has steady improve how deep he is going into game for 4 innings to now 6 innings  in his last two outings.  

I get that he can't understand that.  Its a pity that you can't and just wallow in your negativity.

Live look-in at me wallowing in my negativity:

Again, you can call it negativity, I'll call it reality.  Maybe Lopez is trending up, and if so that's great.  Chances are he's probably not.  

If I don't understand what's occurring with Lopez, you don't understand small sample sizes.  

Fine, WC, what are we betting that Lopez is making some sort of miraculous transition?  You set the terms, as long as they're past something like 12 more starts.  

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His str% is below league average. His walk rate is high. He isnt showing control regularly.

He has shown some moderate improvements this month.  He also got to face a struggling twins team twice (although they are currently 12th in the league in runs), the Nats who are have a terrible offense and he faced Boston in the final game of a series where it looked like their offense was sleepwalking though the game.  An unusual game for them swinging at a lot of pitches, early outs, etc...still, he has looked a little better in a very small sample size.
 

He’s still not a ML starter and should be in the pen, where he is more valuable.

 

The Twins are 8th in the MLB in OPS.   Nats are 15th which should be about average. Boston is 1st.