Is Matt Chapman a potential trade target?

[Sports Guy]

As you look around the league, not a lot of third baseman jump off the page as guys you see as trade material.  Kris Bryant is near to at the top of my offseason wish list but he will be very costly.  The Os certainly have some players in the system that could factor in the third base discussion but we just don't have enough info yet on them.

Enter Matt Chapman into the picture.  Chapman, a guy who has recently been an MVP candidate is having a down year with the bat.  His WAR is still good because of his defense. However, his BA and OBP have been down the last few seasons.  He is entering the final 2 years of arbitration and likely is looking at making 10-12M in 2022.  While his WAR is good enough to justify that, I do wonder if the cost conscious A's will look to move him this offseason.  He turns 29 next April and with his salary, impending FA and recent down years with the bat, he potentially becomes a trade candidate.

Of course, the A's don't have a lot on their payroll for 2022 and certainly could decide to not move him in what has been a few down years in a year, offensively.  

If they were to make him available, would you go after him?  If so, what type of prospects/ML players would you be willing to trade for him?

[HowAboutThat]

I think Kyle Seager would be available, he’ll be a lot cheaper, I think he’s 32 now and he’s declined a little bit, but his defense remains excellent and he can still hit. I think Chapman might be too expensive.

[HowAboutThat]

It occurred to me that Oakland has a lot of players who are either entering free agency or are getting expensive. I don’t know whether we have assembled enough prospects of value to make any sensible prospect offers, but Oakland likes prospects and they might be amenable to that kind of discussion.

[Aristotelian]

I doubt he is available and even if he were I doubt that Elias would want to take on the salary for a position where we have multiple prospects. If he is available, sure, I'd be open to any position players not in our top 20. Maybe something like Diaz and Grenier? 

[waroriole]

I doubt it would be worth what we’d have to give up to acquire him. I’m thinking at least Stowers as the headliner

[MurphDogg]

Even in a down year, he is still going to end up somewhere around 3.5 rWAR.

At 28 and with two years of arbitration eligibility left, that is a decent amount of value. It would probably take 3 interesting prospects and potentially one of the 2 borderline top-100 guys. Henderson, Stowers and a third piece (someone like Rom, Hernaiz or Trimble) feels about right to me.

I don't think the Orioles are going to give up prospects like that for a guy that would only be here through 2023.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I doubt he is available and even if he were I doubt that Elias would want to take on the salary for a position where we have multiple prospects. If he is available, sure, I'd be open to any position players not in our top 20. Maybe something like Diaz and Grenier? 

Is that a serious offer?  Do you think that’s all he is worth?

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Even in a down year, he is still going to end up somewhere around 3.5 rWAR.

At 28 and with two years of arbitration eligibility left, that is a decent amount of value. It would probably take 3 interesting prospects and potentially one of the 2 borderline top-100 guys. Henderson, Stowers and a third piece.

I don't think the Orioles are going to give up prospects like that for a guy that would only be here through 2023.

This is where I think the issue lies. Do you make this deal with just 2 years left?  Do you feel confident in signing him?  Maybe getting him out of that park does wonders.

For me, I would love to add and sign him to a contract for the next 2 years and 2-3 FA years. Say something like 10/17/22/25…5th year option.  
 

Something along those lines.  
 

The better move is probably to sign Bryant for a lot more money and keep the prospects but Chapman is someone I would definitely be looking into this offseason.

Of course, Bryant has to be willing to come here.

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Is that a serious offer?  Do you think that’s all he is worth?

The question is not how good he is but how much surplus value he has. He is already making $6M and is hitting like .220 this year. Moreover, the question is what is he worth to the Orioles. I would not give up any of our top prospects, no sir. If he goes to a higher bidder, so be it. He would be a better fit on a team that is closer to contention and needs a 3B for the next few years so let them outbid us. 

[sevastras]

I would have traded Means and Mancini for Abrams and Hosmer at the deadline. Then you could use Abrams at SS, 2B or 3B, but probably at SS and slide someone else over to 3B.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

The question is not how good he is but how much surplus value he has. He is already making $6M and is hitting like .220 this year. Moreover, the question is what is he worth to the Orioles. I would not give up any of our top prospects, no sir. If he goes to a higher bidder, so be it. He would be a better fit on a team that is closer to contention and needs a 3B for the next few years so let them outbid us. 

Well, he has a ton of surplus value, even in a down year.  That’s not up for debate.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

The question is not how good he is but how much surplus value he has. He is already making $6M and is hitting like .220 this year. Moreover, the question is what is he worth to the Orioles. I would not give up any of our top prospects, no sir. If he goes to a higher bidder, so be it. He would be a better fit on a team that is closer to contention and needs a 3B for the next few years so let them outbid us. 

Chapman's .OPS has declined in 4 straight seasons from .864 in 2018 to .723 this season. I'm not giving up any top prospects for Chapman either. 

[Ruzious]

I'd make a lowball offer - Chapman's not an ideal acquisition target, but he's a good player - at 28 with 2 years left of arbs before free agency.  I could see him being available for the reasons SG gave.  Really good glove, and the offensive stats are hurt by playing at Oakland.  It's obviously not ideal with him being a free agent after the 2023 season, and he'll get paid well in arb. I wouldn't give up a top prospect for him, but I'd be willing to give up a couple of solid prospects - probably less than the combo of Vavra and McKenna.  I'd prefer to give up something like Grenier and Watson. 

             

[sportsfan8703]

We’re not in a position to start making trades yet. We don’t even know what we really have. Plus we’re going to be a bottom 5 team next year. 

[MurphDogg]

9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Chapman's .OPS has declined in 4 straight seasons from .864 in 2018 to .723 this season. I'm not giving up any top prospects for Chapman either. 

This is not how that rhetorical device works.

You can't say that someone whose OPS declined from .800 in 2020 to .780 in 2021 declined in 2 straight seasons.

It is 3 seasons of "decline", the first of which (2019) he was more valuable by rWAR than the previous season because he played an additional 11 games and his OPS went from .864 to .848.

With all that decline, he was still a 7.9 rWAR player in 2019, a 5-ish rWAR player prorated over a full season in 2020, and a 3.5-ish rWAR player in 2021. If he were traded, it wouldn't be for a proverbial bag of balls.