Cedric Mullins - 30/30 ?

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Because he suddenly turns 30 next year?

You lost me if there's a joke in there.  Cedric turns 27 in October.

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Means has 3.6 bWAR and Mountcastle has 1.0 Means would clearly be second and he’s not as far behind Mullins’ 4.8 as I thought.

Interesting tidbit is that Urias has 1.6 BWAR in more than 200 fewer ABs than Mountcastle. Wonder why…

 I realize that you are referring to defensive prowess, and that's certainly part of it, but a large(r) component is positional value w/r/t different offensive production levels, something you consistently refuse to acknowledge when it comes to the catcher position. Just like Urias's bat plays better as an IF than the same OPS would at 1B/DH, a particular OPS from a catcher is much more valuable than it would be from any other position.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Mullins is also on track to become one of the half-dozen best non-pitchers ever on a terrible team.  I looked at every team that's finished with a .325 or lower winning percentage since 1893.  Only four non-pitchers have ever put up a 5-win season (rWAR) on one of those 50 teams, none in my lifetime:

Rusty Staub, 1969 Expos, 6.2
Harlond Clift, 1937 Browns, 7.1
Wally Berger, 1935 Braves, 5.8
Amos Strunk, 1916 A's, 5.6

Mullins isn't going to catch Clift, who is largely forgotten but was arguably the first modern, power-hitting third baseman.  But he might approach Strunk or Berger with a good September.

For pitchers, the best might be Randy Johnson in 2004.  On a 51-111 D'backs team he threw 260 innings to a 2.60 (176 ERA+) with 290 strikeouts and 8.4 rWAR.  Ted Breitenstein also had 8.8 rWAR for the 1895 Browns, but I'd take the Unit.

He wouldn't count for the above because he was less than 5.0 rWAR with the Orioles specifically, but Manny Machado had 6.1 rWAR in 2018 (3.6 in BAL, 2.5 for the LAD), a team with a .290 Winning %. 

I imagine there are a decent number of such cases, likely more than the ones listed above, as teams trade off productive players at the deadline when they are so far out of contention.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm guessing that's the worst team record for anyone with a 10+ win season.  Cal had an 11-win season on a 67-win Orioles team.

I thought maybe one of Walter Johnson’s teams might give it the ‘72 Phillies a run for their money, but no.   He had 7(!) 10-WAR seasons.  

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

He wouldn't count for the above because he was less than 5.0 rWAR with the Orioles specifically, but Manny Machado had 6.1 rWAR in 2018 (3.6 in BAL, 2.5 for the LAD), a team with a .290 Winning %. 

I imagine there are a decent number of such cases, likely more than the ones listed above, as teams trade off productive players at the deadline when they are so far out of contention.

Two things that might mute that effect:

1) Mass dumping of veterans by poor teams at the deadline has been much more prevalent recently.  Essentially didn't happen before free agency.  Also at some point the trade deadline was earlier, like June 15th.

2) There were more bad teams the farther you go back in time, although that's started to reverse with the number of teams recently rebuilding/tanking.

So the terrible old Phillies, Browns, A's, etc didn't make deadline deals.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I thought maybe one of Walter Johnson’s teams might give it the ‘72 Phillies a run for their money, but no.   He had 7(!) 10-WAR seasons.  

Who wouldn't have a 10-WAR season when the population was 5' 3", 110 lbs and thought pork fatback and unfiltered Camels was good nutrition?

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Mountcastle's defense in the OF early in the year wrecked his WAR. Also Urias has been a solid all around player.

Yes of course. I was being polite. 

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, LTO's said:

Seem to remember people caring about the thoughts of rival scouts/execs so thought I'd share this. Mullins ranked second in OF defense. 

And first in bunting! Wow gotta love it.

That’s actually a very undervalued skill. I wish they would coach that more, mounting when the third baseman is playing back, or is slow, or doesn’t react well, and there’s a pitcher with an awkward delivery who doesn’t react well. Maybe practice those squeeze plays?

[HowAboutThat]

59 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

 I realize that you are referring to defensive prowess, and that's certainly part of it, but a large(r) component is positional value w/r/t different offensive production levels, something you consistently refuse to acknowledge when it comes to the catcher position. Just like Urias's bat plays better as an IF than the same OPS would at 1B/DH, a particular OPS from a catcher is much more valuable than it would be from any other position.

Yes exactly, of course I understand that, but that just reinforces Garcia’s claim. He excels at a premium position, and Mountcastle neither excels nor plays a premium position, although he’s getting better at first.

I just checked, and baseball savant Mountcastle is ranked 31st out of 37 first baseman at -2 outs above average. So his defense at first is also bad. Oh well, however I also checked Vlad Junior, who is at -4 hours above average, and he’s not even the worst, although he’s really close. But he also has 37 home runs.

Edited September 1, 2021 by Philip

[SilverRocket]

4 hours ago, interloper said:

Fair point, but the eye test and the metrics line up in this case for me. I watch every single game and he just isn't making the plays he should make out there in my opinion.

Who are you comparing him to? I've seen a ton of catches from him this year that I don't think Adam Jones or any O's CFer in recent memory would've ever come close to. He's not great at balls off the wall and of course his arm is weak, so he might give up the occasional extra base. But I have a hard time seeing him as anything other than above-average based on his range. He turns a few singles into doubles, but also turns a lot of hits into outs which is way more important.

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Who are you comparing him to? I've seen a ton of catches from him this year that I don't think Adam Jones or any O's CFer in recent memory would've ever come close to. He's not great at balls off the wall and of course his arm is weak, so he might give up the occasional extra base. But I have a hard time seeing him as anything other than above-average based on his range. He turns a few singles into doubles, but also turns a lot of hits into outs which is way more important.

I'm not really comparing him to anyone, I just offered my thoughts on what I see, which is a lot of balls that get over his head, a lot of balls that pop out of his glove or get trapped on dives, and in the last series, a few that dropped in front of him that I thought maybe he'd have a diving chance to catch. But it sounds like statcast really likes his OAA, so that's good to know. Like you said, maybe he's just missing balls that no one else would have come close to.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm not really comparing him to anyone, I just offered my thoughts on what I see, which is a lot of balls that get over his head, a lot of balls that pop out of his glove or get trapped on dives, and in the last series, a few that dropped in front of him that I thought maybe he'd have a diving chance to catch. But it sounds like statcast really likes his OAA, so that's good to know. Like you said, maybe he's just missing balls that no one else would have come close to.

I have watched less in the last couple of months, but based on my periodic observations, I think he was better in the earlier part of the year.   That’s not too surprising, since he’s probably a bit worn down by now.    +7 OAA obviously is very good, but I think he was as high as +8 a couple of months ago, so he’s kind of stagnated/regressed a little if my memory of his earlier numbers is correct.   

Edit - from looking at earlier posts, Mullins was +7 as of June 10 and +8 on August 5.    
 

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

And first in bunting! Wow gotta love it.

That’s actually a very undervalued skill. I wish they would coach that more, mounting when the third baseman is playing back, or is slow, or doesn’t react well, and there’s a pitcher with an awkward delivery who doesn’t react well. Maybe practice those squeeze plays?

Bunting could help Mateo a lot. Haven't seen him try one yet.

[SteveA]

Just purely on the eye test, it sure feels like he is getting to a lot more balls than previous center fielders.

Watching games on TV, that initial "uh-oh" feeling when there's a shot off the bat, then that great relief when it shifts to the outfield cam and you see Cedric positioning to make the catch.   I think I've felt that good relief feeling more this year than in the last four years combined.

Seems like lately he's been playing deep and a LOT of bloops have fallen in front of him.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Just purely on the eye test, it sure feels like he is getting to a lot more balls than previous center fielders.

Watching games on TV, that initial "uh-oh" feeling when there's a shot off the bat, then that great relief when it shifts to the outfield cam and you see Cedric positioning to make the catch.   I think I've felt that good relief feeling more this year than in the last four years combined.

Seems like lately he's been playing deep and a LOT of bloops have fallen in front of him.

I hate using the eye test because it's hard to backup with evidence, but Mullins does seem to get to a lot of baseballs that other centerfielders in the last 5 years could not get to. 

Adam Jones was good at getting to the balls within his range, but there seemed to be a lot of hits that fell for extra bases in the last few years of his Orioles career.