Proposal: O's spend 40m in FA

[connja]

I think there is a good chance we see that $100M salary floor in the CBA this off season, so it is a realistic sceario that the O’s have to spend $40M or so.  That said, I think they would spend a lot of that, if not most of it, extending guys and buying out arb years.   Mullins, Mountcastle, even Rutschman could get a longer term contract at a decent rate.  But I would love to see them invest $15-20mm per on a starter to ease the burden and dependency on the young guys.  And a decent middle infielder to bridge us to the Henderson and the younger guys.

[7Mo]

Good post Wildcard.

I agree with most. Where I disagree, we've discussed and I'm not arguing that you're wrong, just giving my thoughts. 

I think Mancini is traded this offseason.

I think Severino is DFA'ed. I think the focus at catcher will be to bring in a solid, veteran defensive catcher to help teach Rutschman. And if he hits .172, you live with it for the defensive knowledge and tips. And that won't cost more than $1M.

I don't think $40M is spent, but likely $15M to $20M. More a year later. This is the first step.

I don't really think... I don't really believe...but I hope we sign 4 FA pitchers that are hybrid guys who can go get 9-12 outs. Not starters with the price tag they carry but bulk guys. Not guys who cost $5M but guys that cost $2M. 

Add a SS, maybe even Iglesias at $2M or so. I just don't see this as being a year they sign ANY FA to a high dollar deal. 

If a good package is offered for Santander, I think he's dealt but I think his value today is such that you bring him back with the belief that he can build value by the trade deadline. 

If the idea is you're trying to build assets so you can trade, I like Urias and Mateo. I think you need to give them chances to prove they have value. That would mean you only sign one infielder. Do we believe Mateo can play short or do you sign a SS and let Mateo build value elsewhere?

You've outlined the pitchers coming back. IMO, Lopez can become valuable as a 3 inning guy. Give Ellis time to prove he's valuable or not. 

We'll have a long offseason to discuss back and forth. 

[luismatos4prez]

If Elias offered Severino 3M next year, his agent would assume it was a joke.

I'd sign a veteran glove-first catcher, a shortstop like Iglesias/Simmons, and spend the rest on starting pitchers.

The rotation situation next year is really, really dire. Akin/Zimmermann are a really tragic 2/3 and I don't even know who 4/5 are right now.

Lopez and Scott should clock in at around 1M each next year (like Miguel Castro when he was Arb1)

 

[wildcard]

8 hours ago, connja said:

I think there is a good chance we see that $100M salary floor in the CBA this off season, so it is a realistic sceario that the O’s have to spend $40M or so.  That said, I think they would spend a lot of that, if not most of it, extending guys and buying out arb years.   Mullins, Mountcastle, even Rutschman could get a longer term contract at a decent rate.  But I would love to see them invest $15-20mm per on a starter to ease the burden and dependency on the young guys.  And a decent middle infielder to bridge us to the Henderson and the younger guys.

I can't see how any salary floor would be implemented in 2022.  The CBA will probably not be agreed  on until late in the off season if then.   It would probably start in 2023.

[wildcard]

12 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

One of the dumber things a non-contending team can do is spend real money on relievers, and you want to spend $14 million on two relief pitchers.

2012 Orioles added  SS Darren O'Day (1.4m) and Luis Ayala (625K).  I am fine with spending less if Elias can find good ones cheap.   He needs to add lefties to the pen which might be more expensive.  The 7m is just in the budget if he needs it.

[Sports Guy]

While I agree that the Os could do something like what is proposed, I just think it’s a bad idea that doesn’t really accomplish much.

One of the first things said in this post is that you don’t want to waste any of the Adley/GRod years but then the rest of the post is essentially bringing back the same team while also adding in some mediocre at best FAs (because that’s what you are getting for the money discussed).

I don’t really get this.  If the idea is to not waste those years, why not add actual good players to make the team much better?

Obviously, just like this year, for the team to be much improved in 2022, it means the existing players in the organization improve a lot.  But it’s time to add real talent around them.

[Jagwar]

I think the plan Wildcard suggested still leads to 95-100 losses.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

While I agree that the Os could do something like what is proposed, I just think it’s a bad idea that doesn’t really accomplish much.

One of the first things said in this post is that you don’t want to waste any of the Adley/GRod years but then the rest of the post is essentially bringing back the same team while also adding in some mediocre at best FAs (because that’s what you are getting for the money discussed).

I don’t really get this.  If the idea is to not waste those years, why not add actual good players to make the team much better?

Obviously, just like this year, for the team to be much improved in 2022, it means the existing players in the organization improve a lot.  But it’s time to add real talent around them.

So I guess when Tampa added Charlie Morton 2/30 in 2019 you think they did not add a good starter.

This is why I said outside of your disapproval.   Negative, negative, negative.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So I guess when Tampa added Charlie Morton 2/30 in 2019 you think they did not add a good starter.

This is why I said outside of disapproval.   Negative, negative, negative.

A guy like Charlie Morton isn’t signing here for 2/30.  He can get that deal with good organizations and better parks to pitch in. The guys you are getting here on a 2 year deal are guys who can only get a 1 year deal elsewhere or a 2/20 type deal.

In other words, you are getting a pretty mediocre guy.

Now, I will admit that whoever that pitcher is, will likely be an upgrade over what we have.  But still, they won’t move the needle and it would be spending for the sake of spending.  If we added a really good starter (like say Stroman) and also added a pitcher like that, now we have something. I have talked about trading for Price.  I like him here for a lot of reasons but if all they did was add Price to the pitching staff, that likely isn’t changing much.

But it’s also the rest of the way you want to spend the money.  You just aren’t getting very good players for that.

And I’m sorry you think that’s negative but it’s the truth.  You may not want to hear it but it either shows a lack of knowledge on your part about the market and what you can get or you are going to be over the top optimistic that we can turn a turd into gold.  You can choose to think like that but it’s not very realistic.

[Camden_yardbird]

17 hours ago, wildcard said:

My plan is always not to waste the Adley and Grayson years.

Instead of trading the O's best players,  the O's spend 40m and make the team more competitive in 2022.  Add a starter 2/30,  spend 1/7m each of 2 relievers and a 2B/3B, spend 1/2m on a UIF.

Given current salaries and free agents I think these are your options

$15 million starter:  Grienke, Kikuchi, Duffy, Jon Gray

$7 relievers: Hudson, Yates, Knebel, Givens, Diekman, Kennedy

$7 IF: The free agent pool is surprisingly void of players that meet this profile of mid level talent that won't embarass you.  Its go big or go home this year in the infield. Leury Garcia, Andrelton Simmons?

Uif: This could be literally anyone.

Doesn't really inspire confidence that this is going to "not waste Gray Rod and Adley."

 

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, wildcard said:

Severino:  Weaver always said you don't pick guys for what the can't do, you pick them for what they can do.   Severino can hit lefties.  I have never seem a catcher take more hits to the head and groin than Pedro.  No wonder he does not move well.  He is all banged up and he is a Dominican.  He does not play that well in cold. 

Is there evidence that Dominicans don’t play that well in the cold?   That’s a new one on me.   

As to Severino in particular, there’s certainly evidence that he’s not a good September hitter (.539 career OPS).    Whether that’s due to not doing well in the cold, or just being worn down, or pure coincidence, I couldn’t tell you.   He hits pretty well in March/April (.707 OPS), which around here is usually colder than September.   So, I’m inclined to go with “worn down” as the explanation.   On the other hand, he was awful last September (.438 OPS), in a season that was only 60 games long, so being worn down doesn’t explain that.   
 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Given current salaries and free agents I think these are your options

$15 million starter:  Grienke, Kikuchi, Duffy, Jon Gray

$7 relievers: Hudson, Yates, Knebel, Givens, Diekman, Kennedy

$7 IF: The free agent pool is surprisingly void of players that meet this profile of mid level talent that won't embarass you.  Its go big or go home this year in the infield. Leury Garcia, Andrelton Simmons?

Uif: This could be literally anyone.

Doesn't really inspire confidence that this is going to "not waste Gray Rod and Adley."

 

Well said..and even some of those pitchers, I think they can get 2 or 3 years from a good team.

But your last line is the key here.  If the point of the exercise is to “not waste those years”, then why are you settling for mediocrity?

These exercises have been brought up.  I think instead of saying, add X amount of dollars, it should be, the payroll can’t go above Y dollars.  That gives you some opportunity for movement of players that could make good money this offseason, so now you have more flexibility to make larger moves.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

A guy like Charlie Morton isn’t signing here for 2/30.  He can get that deal with good organizations and better parks to pitch in. The guys you are getting here on a 2 year deal are guys who can only get a 1 year deal elsewhere or a 2/20 type deal.

In other words, you are getting a pretty mediocre guy.

Now, I will admit that whoever that pitcher is, will likely be an upgrade over what we have.  But still, they won’t move the needle and it would be spending for the sake of spending.  If we added a really good starter (like say Stroman) and also added a pitcher like that, now we have something. I have talked about trading for Price.  I like him here for a lot of reasons but if all they did was add Price to the pitching staff, that likely isn’t changing much.

But it’s also the rest of the way you want to spend the money.  You just aren’t getting very good players for that.

And I’m sorry you think that’s negative but it’s the truth.  You may not want to hear it but it either shows a lack of knowledge on your part about the market and what you can get or you are going to be over the top optimistic that we can turn a turd into gold.  You can choose to think like that but it’s not very realistic.

Negative, Negative, Negative BS.   If the Angelos' are ready to spend 40m, Elias can find good players. There are a lot of ways to do that.   

The problem with your signing a player/pitcher to a long term contract is that it is not in the Tampa model and the O's are unlikely to take the risk that goes with those contracts.  If you at least listened to what Elias is saying you would know that.

Signing Stroman for 4 or 5 years is from age 31-34 or 35.  Injury risk gets higher with age.   Elias is so risk adverse he will not even draft a pitcher high in the draft.  There is no reason to believe he would sign a pitcher to a 4 or 5 year contract.

Price is 36 and will make 32m next year. How does that fit into the Tampa model?

There is a path here for the O's to be a winning team next year.  There will be free agents and other moves the O's can make without spend big on risky players.  I feel sure Elias and staff can identify and make  those acquisition if given the green light to spend some money.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Negative, Negative, Negative BS.   If the Angelos' are ready to spend 40m, Elias can find good players. There are a lot of ways to do that.   

The problem with your signing a player/pitcher to a long term contract is that it is not in the Tampa model and the O's are unlikely to take the risk that goes with those contracts.  If you at least listened to what Elias is saying you would know that.

Signing Stroman for 4 or 5 years is from age 31-34 or 35.  Injury risk gets higher with age.   Elias is so risk adverse he will not even draft a pitcher high in the draft.  There is no reason to believe he would sign a pitcher to a 4 or 5 year contract.

Price is 36 and will make 32m next year. How does that fit into the Tampa model?

There is a path here for the O's to be a winning team next year.  There will be free agents and other moves the O's can make without spend big on risky players.  I feel sure Elias and staff can identify and make  those acquisition if given the green light to spend some money.

First of all, Boston is paying half of his contract and you likely can get the Dodgers to eat more.

Secondly, you are taking this Tampa model stuff wrong.  The Orioles aren't going to run their team like they can only have a 60M budget.  The Tampa model refers to the idea of being able to have a strong system, build through that, etc....but the Os can do that and spend a lot more money.

Now, that being said...as I said, I can see the Os doing what you are saying there.  It just doesn't accomplish what you are talking about.  You talk about not wasting those years but yet your plan is to sign mediocrity.  That doesn't help accomplish your goal unless your definition of "not wasting those years" is different than mine and most of the rest of the fan base.

And please stop with the Elias can find bs....Elias has no say in this.  If better teams want to sign players, the Os have to go above those teams.  So, this isn't something in his hands in a lot of ways.  

BTW, you keep saying its negative BS.  Tell me where I am wrong.

[Redskins Rick]

This whole speculation spread is BS, built on wild ass speculation.

We dont really know what this team is willing to spend in the off-season??????