Jump to content

Josh Rogers Another Great Start


NelsonCruuuuuz

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, jabba72 said:

I agree with this. Yaz will be 31 next year. His age is getting dangerously close to the end of his everyday career. He does have hall of fame bloodlines though, so you never know how long his career will last. 

His grandpa retired at 43 and had some pretty damned good seasons in his mid to late 30’s.   Of course, he also won a batting title at 23, the age at which Mike reached AA for the first time.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If this is true, this is dumb.  I can't imagine anyone who'd be this dumb.

It’s not amazing how often people in positions of power have blind spots. It is amazing how often they refuse to admit that they have blind spots.

Arrogance is almost the worst of the human flaws, Because it makes it impossible to admit any kind of mistakes and therefore it is impossible to improve.

So, yes, it is easy to imagine someone in a position of power doing dumb things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Let's just say I am highly suspect of the Sig's system to evaluate pitchers and the Orioles ability to develop pitching.

Thanks for the detail in your post. Very helpful information.

Do you have a feeling, one way or the other, about whether these 2 things, Sig's system and the O's development style, are things that are reviewed year to year to adjust and correct or are they things where the organization is set in stone and convinced this is THE way?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 7Mo said:

Thanks for the detail in your post. Very helpful information.

Do you have a feeling, one way or the other, about whether these 2 things, Sig's system and the O's development style, are things that are reviewed year to year to adjust and correct or are they things where the organization is set in stone and convinced this is THE way?

I think we need more data before making a judgement. We have to see if any of the Peek, Brnovich, Stallings kinds of guys take a step forward or if they can take an arm like Greene and Burdi and have them focus on their best two offerings and make them a decent consistent bullpen option? 

I get a feeling that the org tries to take guys that may not have the kind of stuff and shoe horn them into their pitching style. Hanifee and Baumann may be two examples but I want to get another year of data under the belt before being too critical.

I do like what I've seen for the most part from the hitting side of development.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think we need more data before making a judgement. We have to see if any of the Peek, Brnovich, Stallings kinds of guys take a step forward or if they can take an arm like Greene and Burdi and have them focus on their best two offerings and make them a decent consistent bullpen option? 

I get a feeling that the org tries to take guys that may not have the kind of stuff and shoe horn them into their pitching style. Hanifee and Baumann may be two examples but I want to get another year of data under the belt before being too critical.

I do like what I've seen for the most part from the hitting side of development.

Thanks. I appreciate the comments.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I think we need more data before making a judgement. We have to see if any of the Peek, Brnovich, Stallings kinds of guys take a step forward or if they can take an arm like Greene and Burdi and have them focus on their best two offerings and make them a decent consistent bullpen option? 

I get a feeling that the org tries to take guys that may not have the kind of stuff and shoe horn them into their pitching style. Hanifee and Baumann may be two examples but I want to get another year of data under the belt before being too critical.

I do like what I've seen for the most part from the hitting side of development.

I agree with you here Tony.  If you were to ask me about my biggest disappointment and concern from 2021, it’s that our pitching development suddenly doesn’t look very good.   And I wouldn’t have said that at the end of 2019 or 2020, when there were a lot of positive stories.   Add in the fact that we’ve drafted virtually no pitchers in the high rounds of the draft for three years in a row, and that we have almost no good veteran pitchers, and it just looks like a hot mess.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree with you here Tony.  If you were to ask me about my biggest disappointment and concern from 2021, it’s that our pitching development suddenly doesn’t look very good.   And I wouldn’t have said that at the end of 2019 or 2020, when there were a lot of positive stories.   Add in the fact that we’ve drafted virtually no pitchers in the high rounds of the draft for three years in a row, and that we have almost no good veteran pitchers, and it just looks like a hot mess.   

“Grow the bats, trade for arms?”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought the OH  was big on pitchers throwing strike outs.  Rogers hasn't been a strikeout pitcher in the past and  is not one now.  In his last four starts the has faced the Mets, Pirates, and the Marlins twice.  Not exactly like facing Tampa, Boston, Yankees and Jays which is what he would be doing if he was with the O's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

I thought the OH  was big on pitchers throwing strike outs.  Rogers hasn't been a strikeout pitcher in the past and  is not one now.  In his last four starts the has faced the Mets, Pirates, and the Marlins twice.  Not exactly like facing Tampa, Boston, Yankees and Jays which is what he would be doing if he was with the O's.

The quality of opponents is certainly something to consider. However, as I showed in my earlier post, the changeup especially looks better than Wells and Lowther and overall his stuff is pretty comparable though I like Lowther's stuff better overall. 

I'm not convinced Rogers is going to have long term success, but I could see him be a Wade LeBlanc-type who can be used in several roles, but is more suited for long relief.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Isn’t this old news? Good or bad, he’s gone. We need to learn from the experience, if there’s any significant lessons to be learned at all. Is Mike bad at evaluating pitching? Is whoever in charge of evaluating pitching bad at it?

Mike is not drafting Pitching, and he’s not acquiring any good pitching, except the occasional waiver pick up who turns out not to be immediately horrible. The free agent acquisitions have been bad, but they were cheap, so it’s OK.

Rather than whine about Rogers being good, it will be more productive to consider whether he is good at all, and if so, what lessons do we need to learn so as not to let another one get away.

It should be obvious that one marginal guy doesn’t matter. Zack Pop doesn’t matter, Rogers doesn’t matter. 
What matters is the logic behind the decision. If that logic is flawed, that matters, and it matters a lot. And the character of the person making the decision matters a lot too. Is he willing to acknowledge mistakes and learn from them? That we don’t know and possibly never will, But the very process of acquiring a position like this requires a supreme confidence that easily breeds the arrogance That makes meaningful learning impossible.

Edited by Philip
Addendum
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
On 9/23/2021 at 12:28 AM, wildcard said:

I thought the OH  was big on pitchers throwing strike outs.  Rogers hasn't been a strikeout pitcher in the past and  is not one now.  In his last four starts the has faced the Mets, Pirates, and the Marlins twice.  Not exactly like facing Tampa, Boston, Yankees and Jays which is what he would be doing if he was with the O's.

He’s shutting out the Red Sox tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Posts

    • Great post.  I like your optimism, and I'll try to believe this team can turn things around just in the nick of time like some classic Hollywood baseball movie.
    • I think Elias has mostly done an excellent job with one exception -- he seems like he treats the bullpen like an afterthought.  I doubt that will happen again this coming offseason. I don't really blame him for the current offensive struggles overall.  Just too many injuries late in the season.  That said I don't understand how we went from dealing Austin Hays, Connor Norby and Ryan McKenna just so we could land the right handed bat of, gulp, Austin Slater.  
    • Man this team has no shot. Right now they may not even make it. 
    • Most of these guys are only playing because of injuries to starters.  But Austin Slater I'm guessing was brought in to replace the traded Austin Hays.  The problem is that Slater has shown little ability to hit lefties this year, after hitting them pretty well up to this season.  This must be why two teams dropped him before the O's picked him up.  I know he was let go much earlier in the season, but is Ryan McKenna actually worse than this guy?  I don't understand how the front office went from releasing McKenna to later trading Hays and Norby -- thinking their right handed bats could adequately be replaced by someone like Slater.  
    • I'm willing to give Elias some rope because of the strict limitations he was under with JA but he better not be so damn conservative again this year and let every serviceable FA out there sign with other teams while he's busy picking up reclamation projects again. Minus Burns of course.  
    • I agree completely that it’s irrelevant whether it worked.  But I don’t agree that bunting is clearly the right decision in either scenario, and I think that decision gets worse if it’s intended to be a straight sacrifice rather than a bunt for a hit. To be clear, the outcome you’re seeking in tonight’s situation, for example — sacrifice the runners over to 2nd/3rd — lowers both your run expectancy for the inning (from 1.44 to 1.39) and your win expectancy for the game (from 38.8% to 37.1%). It increases the likelihood of scoring one run, but it decreases the likelihood of scoring two runs (which you needed to tie) and certainly of scoring three or more runs (which you needed to take the lead).  And that’s if you succeed in getting them to 2nd/3rd. Research indicates that 15-30% of sacrifice bunt attempts fail, so you have to bake in a pretty significant percentage of the time that you’d just be giving up a free out (or even just two free strikes, as on Sunday). The bunt attempt in the 3rd inning on Sunday (which my gut hates more than if they’d done it today) actually is less damaging to the win probability — decreasing it only very slightly from 60.2% to 59.8%. More time left in the game to make up for giving up outs, I guess, and the scoreboard payoff is a bit better (in the sense that at least you’d have a better chance to take the lead).   At the bottom of it, these things mostly come down to gut and pure chance. The percentages are rarely overwhelming in either direction, and so sometimes even a “lower-percentage” play may work better under some circumstances. You would have bunted both times. I wouldn’t have bunted either time. Hyde bunted one time but not the other. I don’t know that anyone is an idiot (or even clearly “wrong”) for their preference. Either approach could have worked. Sadly, none of them actually did.
    • Wasn't Hyde always thought of more or less as a caretaker? I'm on the fence about him coming back. I totally get the injuries and that needs to be taking into consideration but man this collapse some heads have to roll who's I'm  mot sure 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...