2021 Orioles #3 Prospect - Coby Mayo - 3B

[Sports Guy]

This came down to one thing…do You want Mayo over everyone else?  In other words, if Cowser was in another organization and someone offered you Cowser for Mayo, would you do it?  

Tony says no..I agree with him.

Otoh, Mayo carries a higher risk profile and he could be outside the top 10 next year.

But for right now, I like this decision and I think it’s the right one.

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes, bold choice given the player's level of competition.  I do agree that he did as well as anyone could have hoped.

This is kind of what I was thinking, too. We've only got Delmarva to go on. For me, high A is where you can start to really gauge whether a guy might be for real. But I'm certainly excited about Mayo. 

[LookinUp]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This came down to one thing…do You want Mayo over everyone else?  In other words, if Cowser was in another organization and someone offered you Cowser for Mayo, would you do it?  

Tony says no..I agree with him.

Otoh, Mayo carries a higher risk profile and he could be outside the top 10 next year.

But for right now, I like this decision and I think it’s the right one.

All true. I think it came down to Tony's feeling that you can tell when a guy is a next level guy. Put 10 guys out there and who stands out? The answer to Tony was Mayo over everyone except the #1 prospects in baseball at their respective positions. 

[Tony-OH]

29 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

This is more of a gut feeling, but to use some best case scenario comps, Henderson reminds me of Chipper Jones, Mayo reminds me of Mike Stanton (before the first name change). If I had to pick one that I prefer, give me Jones. But I'm ecstatic to have both.

Chipper was a switch hitter who slashed .311/.360/.504/.863 between A+ and AA at 20 years old wit a 42-66 BB-K ratio in 586 PAs. It's of course worth mentioning that Jones was converted to 3B from SS at the major league level. Mayo does have some hitting similarities to Stanton. I like that comp more even though I have not given up on Mayo sticking at 3B yet.

 

[Tony-OH]

34 minutes ago, oriole said:

Wish I would’ve read this before voting in the #4 poll. Now I know I’m wrong lol

Haha. I give lots of easter eggs in my comments.

[Tony-OH]

34 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

One of the things that you probably have to deal with yearly with your write-ups is they're based on the information available at a point in time. People sometimes think you draw conclusions like "Gunnar won't be as good as Mayo." You certainly have you're opinions, but you also don't rule out one player taking a major step while another does not.

Henderson has power and athleticism. That's a great combination. I think he has balance issues in his swing and most likely in his fielding too. I made a point like that in the minors forum when he kept hitting those oppo homeruns and got busted on for it. I don't think people realize what that means about a swing. At the same time, I think a lot of that stuff can be improved upon over time. That's what player development is for, and his athleticism means he has a better chance to become more centered at the plate, which should reduce his platoon issues over time somewhat.

Not saying he'll transform into Tony Gwynn. Just that he's young, athletic and had good success despite some struggles. Very exciting prospect to me.

Sometimes people think I'm down on a guy when I give my reasonings for ranking a guy over another guy. That doesn't mean I don't like the other guy, just that if I could only have one in my system, I'd take the guy I ranked above him.

Henderson has a lot of things to like. He also has a lot of things he needs to improve upon, but that's why he's in the minors. Unlike some others, I want people to know about the things that need to improve so they can have a full and complete picture of player and not the pollyanna approach some other may go with on the prospect scene. 

I think people know by now that I'm a tough grader, but I also hope they know the amount of video scouting and statistical analysis that goes into my opinions. I only wish I had statcast data!

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Hey, if Tony thinks he's a better prospect than Cowser is, that's a good thing, because Cowser is - relatively speaking - a known quantity.  

Honestly, it came down to the fact that Mayo outperformed Cowser at the same level while being two years younger. Also, the game has gone to such a power as premium game now so Cowser will need some swing changes and to get stronger in order to increase his power output, and the question is, how will that affect his ability to get on base?

[Just Regular]

Glad we have lots of talented guys who are coming along well - hopeful Willems will follow well in Gunnar and Cody's footsteps.

I only hope Mayo gives cause for loads of Up Where We Belong references between home runs and team wins as this group comes through.

With Mountcastle mostly inked in and Clubs mostly shunning everyday DH's, imagine Elias etc. super interested on if he could stick at 3B.   Between Mullins, Cowser and whoever out of Hays/Santander/Stowers/Kjerstad grows best the next few years...well, the team could really use a 3B.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Honestly, it came down to the fact that Mayo outperformed Cowser at the same level while being two years younger. 

When you count offense and defense did he?

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

When you count offense and defense did he?

You have to look at the players holistically. In Cowser I see a line drive guy who hits gap to gap but who probably can't stick in center field effectively. In Mayo I see a potential middle of the order impact hitter who has enough athleticism and arm strength that if he does have to move off 3B (and I have not made that call by a long shot especially with him coming off a leg injury) he should have value in RF and definitely 1B if it leads there. 

So yes, taking both sides into consideration, I think Mayo's ceiling is much higher than Cowser's but Cowser's risk is lower.

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You have to look at the players holistically. In Cowser I see a line drive guy who hits gap to gap but who probably can't stick in center field effectively. In Mayo I see a potential middle of the order impact hitter who has enough athleticism and arm strength that if he does have to move off 3B (and I have not made that call by a long shot especially with him coming off a leg injury) he should have value in RF and definitely 1B if it leads there. 

So yes, taking both sides into consideration, I think Mayo's ceiling is much higher than Cowser's but Cowser's risk is lower.

Troy Glaus vs Markakis

I would guess most fans, especially Os fans, would say Markakis was the better player.

But Glaus’ WAR was 5 wins higher than Nick in roughly 600 less games.  
 

Markakis was healthier but Glaus was the bigger threat.  If Mayo is a Troy Glaus type guy and he can be healthier than Glaus was, you are looking at a perennial 3.5-5 WAR guy with spikes in the 6-8 range very possibly.

Cowser should be a consistent 2.5-4 WAR guy if he stays healthy and has to go to a corner spot.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Troy Glaus vs Markakis

I would get most fans, especially Os fans, would say Markakis was the better player.

But Glaus’ WAR was 5 wins higher than Nick in roughly 600 less games.  
 

Markakis was healthier but Glaus was the bigger threat.  If Mayo is a Troy Glaus type guy and he can be healthier than Glaus was, you are looking at a perennial 3.5-5 WAR guy with spikes in the 6-8 range very possibly.

Cowser should be a consistent 2.5-4 WAR guy if he stays healthy and has to go to a corner spot.

That’s a pretty good comp.  And I’m a big Markakis fan but have no trouble saying Glaus was better than Nick and I’d rather have had him in our system than Nick.  It’s a shame Glaus didn’t stay healthier.

[wildcard]

So what you are saying is you trust that Mayo can grow to be a good defensive 3B/RF/1B.  But don't trust  Cowser to develop power?

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Troy Glaus vs Markakis

I would guess most fans, especially Os fans, would say Markakis was the better player.

But Glaus’ WAR was 5 wins higher than Nick in roughly 600 less games.  
 

Markakis was healthier but Glaus was the bigger threat.  If Mayo is a Troy Glaus type guy and he can be healthier than Glaus was, you are looking at a perennial 3.5-5 WAR guy with spikes in the 6-8 range very possibly.

Cowser should be a consistent 2.5-4 WAR guy if he stays healthy and has to go to a corner spot.

Damn. I was just about to comp him to Troy Glaus based on the descriptions I've heard. Nice pull.

[Tony-OH]

42 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So what you are saying is you trust that Mayo can grow to be a good defensive 3B/RF/1B.  But don't trust  Cowser to develop power?

I don't even know how to begin to answer this because it's based in no reality of anything I've said. If you don't understand or agree with why I have Mayo over Cowser at this point, there is nothing more I can add to help you.