Top Ten Prospects-Positions

[Bahama O's Fan]

Here are the positions of the top ten prospects:

OF-3

SS/3B-3

P-2

2B-1

C-1

I'm really concerned about the lack of pitching. How will we be competitive in two to three years? Are we buying the arms?

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Here are the positions of the top ten prospects:

OF-3

SS/3B-3

P-2

2B-1

C-1

I'm really concerned about the lack of pitching. How will we be competitive in two to three years? Are we buying the arms?

Trading for arms from the surplus of position players.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Trading for arms from the surplus of position players.

Which teams would you say have a surplus of quality pitching?

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Here are the positions of the top ten prospects:

OF-3

SS/3B-3

P-2

2B-1

C-1

I'm really concerned about the lack of pitching. How will we be competitive in two to three years? Are we buying the arms?

Mike seems to be taking the logic that young pitching is risky:let other teams take the risk, while we collect a vast surplus of less risky players who are full of upside, and then trade for the excellent survivors from other teams.

that’s valid logic, and I don’t necessarily disagree, I wonder if part of his focus on position players was because when he took over we had a lot of pitching in the pipeline that was close to being ready and might be successful.

None of them has been successful yet, but maybe the expectation that one or two of them would be allowed him to focus on other things?

[jamalshw]

11 minutes ago, Philip said:

Mike seems to be taking the logic that young pitching is risky:let other teams take the risk, while we collect a vast surplus of less risky players who are full of upside, and then trade for the excellent survivors from other teams.

that’s valid logic, and I don’t necessarily disagree, I wonder if part of his focus on position players was because when he took over we had a lot of pitching in the pipeline that was close to being ready and might be successful.

None of them has been successful yet, but maybe the expectation that one or two of them would be allowed him to focus on other things?

I think some of it is the depth we had and some of it is a cost/benefit analysis. Elias isn't against taking pitching in a draft, but he is against taking them high. He likes taking college pitching late. The guys that are more developed, but appear to have less upside. I think the idea is to fill in the top end of the pitching spectrum with trade (and Rodriguez and Hall), but to collect enough of those mid/low end guys that he can fill in the SP depth and some bullpen arms. Its a bit of a quantity over quality approach which is fine as long as you have some staples in the rotation and a couple key bullpen pieces. So far, we haven't had that, but hopefully Rodriguez and Hall (along with Means) help get us a bit closer in the next couple years. From there, if we add a free agent arm or two in the pen and one in the rotation (or someone via trade) the rest can be filled in with which of the quantity show to be good enough and with other finds like the Sulsers and Ellis's of the world. 

[oriole]

In addition to Hall and Rodriguez there are a ton of pitchers that could be good already in the organization. Obviously they won’t all work out and most will find a home in the bullpen when all is said and done but Bradish,  Kremer, Smith, Baumann, Lowther, Akin, Rom and Baulmer are all examples of players that you can’t quite write off yet. Even if only one of those guys is successful at being a mid-rotation piece along with Hall and Rodriguez then you’ve got most of the rotation covered and that’s not even mentioning Means (assuming he sticks around). Add in a savvy FA signing or trade for surplus position players then I would say there’s plenty of opportunity to get a good, cheap, controllable rotation set up for contention in a couple years. 

[jamalshw]

47 minutes ago, oriole said:

In addition to Hall and Rodriguez there are a ton of pitchers that could be good already in the organization. Obviously they won’t all work out and most will find a home in the bullpen when all is said and done but Bradish,  Kremer, Smith, Baumann, Lowther, Akin, Rom and Baulmer are all examples of players that you can’t quite write off yet. Even if only one of those guys is successful at being a mid-rotation piece along with Hall and Rodriguez then you’ve got most of the rotation covered and that’s not even mentioning Means (assuming he sticks around). Add in a savvy FA signing or trade for surplus position players then I would say there’s plenty of opportunity to get a good, cheap, controllable rotation set up for contention in a couple years. 

I appreciate the optimism and there's certainly truth here, but to get through a season we need to realistically go 8 starters deep due to injuries, potential double-headers, etc. We are also in a position where we more or less NEED both Rodriguez and Hall to develop into what we expect them to become. I agree that things on the mound aren't as dire as some make it seem, but I still think we are going to be in a position where a single addition from outside the organization is likely to fall short. 

[SteveA]

50 minutes ago, oriole said:

In addition to Hall and Rodriguez there are a ton of pitchers that could be good already in the organization. Obviously they won’t all work out and most will find a home in the bullpen when all is said and done but Bradish,  Kremer, Smith, Baumann, Lowther, Akin, Rom and Baulmer are all examples of players that you can’t quite write off yet. Even if only one of those guys is successful at being a mid-rotation piece along with Hall and Rodriguez then you’ve got most of the rotation covered and that’s not even mentioning Means (assuming he sticks around). Add in a savvy FA signing or trade for surplus position players then I would say there’s plenty of opportunity to get a good, cheap, controllable rotation set up for contention in a couple years. 

1) Pretty much every team in baseball has a similar list of guys who might amount to something.   Throwing the names of 8 guys who may or may not amount to anything out doesn't seem to be any indication that we are on the right track in terms of developing a good major league pitching staff for the bulk of the 2020s.  

2) Seeing the first of those guys make the majors this year and suck is a serious gut punch to the hopes that Elias and Holt are introducing superior pitching development techniques to our organization to get the most  out of non top 100 prospect pitchers.  Maybe it's just a small sample size and we'll look back and laugh someday as our system turns mediocre prospects into servicable major league pitchers year after year thanks to the brilliant, innovative front office.   But let's just say we aren't off to a good start in that department.

[Aristotelian]

Trades, free agency, and/or guys who are not currently in the Top 10. Also Rule 5 and waiver claims. 

[interloper]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which teams would you say have a surplus of quality pitching?

This is not on us to figure out, honestly. It's also a really difficult question to pose to a fan because it requires knowledge of other minor league systems. But the theory is sound, you can acquire players through a surplus of other players. 

[interloper]

4 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Here are the positions of the top ten prospects:

OF-3

SS/3B-3

P-2

2B-1

C-1

I'm really concerned about the lack of pitching. How will we be competitive in two to three years? Are we buying the arms?

Honestly, it's just a top 10. I'd be more concerned if it was 2 pitchers in the top 30 or something like that. 

[oriole]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

I appreciate the optimism and there's certainly truth here, but to get through a season we need to realistically go 8 starters deep due to injuries, potential double-headers, etc. We are also in a position where we more or less NEED both Rodriguez and Hall to develop into what we expect them to become. I agree that things on the mound aren't as dire as some make it seem, but I still think we are going to be in a position where a single addition from outside the organization is likely to fall short. 

Was Means ever on a prospect list? I’m trying to balance hopefulness and reality…but I listed 10 starters and only need 2 or 3 to be any good. I’m not exactly betting on Kremer or Akin but I’m not gonna suggest they’re hopeless or anything either. 
Plus, I’m sure whoever shows themselves capable will be supplemented by one or two free agents. Elias isn’t going to leave his pen at home every off season. I just don’t think we’re in as a bad position as the OP suggests. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

This is not on us to figure out, honestly. It's also a really difficult question to pose to a fan because it requires knowledge of other minor league systems. But the theory is sound, you can acquire players through a surplus of other players. 

Yea, you can.

But pitching isn't generally easy to acquire and if you do it is often attached to significant payroll obligations.

I'd much rather be in the position to trade pitching for bats than the reverse.

Here is a fun example that I will admit doesn't mean much at all.  MLB.com lists the biggest need of all 30 teams.

https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-needs-mlb-2021-offseason

They picked starting pitching for 13 of the 30 teams, relief pitching accounts for another six.

[RZNJ]

Again, how easy is it to draft a #1 or #2 pitcher?   We all know the answer to that one.   It's really difficult even at the top of the draft.

 

Trading for established ML pitchers will be very costly.   Right now, it's obvious that the plan so far has been to trade from non-established, non-elite pitching prospects and hope you get a little lucky.   That has gotten us Bradish and Pinto among others.    They are hoping to get lucky with the Latin American program but that will take years as well.    Elias was lucky enough to inherit Hall and Rodriguez so there was less urgency to try and draft a pitcher with a top 5 pick UNLESS they really loved a pitcher on one of those spots.   The complete failure of Kremer, Akin, and others who would hopefully, fill in the back of a rotation has created more urgency.    If Akin and Kremer had followed up on their 2020 season and looked like a solid #4 and #5 combination of some sort, along with Means as a #2, we would not be quite as worried.

[Sports Guy]

I’m not overly concerned with this.  I like that we have a lot of positional talent.

And while everyone is focused on starters, my concern may be greater in terms of a bullpen.