Trade Bait 2022

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I really don’t care ….I just don’t buy into the Trumbo comp. Trumbo was a low average OBP player. Sure he was a power hitter so his OPS is pulled up due to his power numbers. I don’t pretend Mancini has as much power as Trumbo and don’t care. Offensively Trumbo was the prototypical Orioles mistake of the old regime. Good power, low average, low OBP, and tons of Ks. I’m hoping they pass on those types guys moving forward. 

Mancini has a career 7.5% BB rate. Trumbo's was 6.8%. Mancini's is better but not by a lot. We're not talking about a .400 OBP. Mancini is hitting slightly higher with slightly higher OBP but I would still consider him pretty similar to Trumbo overall, trading a bit of power for OBP. I would not consider him a categorically different type of hitter or player. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I really don’t care ….I just don’t buy into the Trumbo comp. Trumbo was a low average OBP player. Sure he was a power hitter so his OPS is pulled up due to his power numbers. I don’t pretend Mancini has as much power as Trumbo and don’t care. Offensively Trumbo was the prototypical Orioles mistake of the old regime. Good power, low average, low OBP, and tons of Ks. I’m hoping they pass on those types guys moving forward. 

I do think Mancini is a better player than Trumbo, plus after we signed him to an extension Trumbo had some injuries that hampered him significantly.   

To me though, what’s comparable is not so much the player as the situation.  We had Mancini waiting in the wings to replace Trumbo, but apparently didn’t want to risk that he couldn’t do the job so we spent money on Trumbo that could have been better spent elsewhere.   Now we have Stowers waiting in the wings, and Cowser and Kjerstad coming up through the system, so does it really make sense to pay a lot of money to extend Mancini?
 

[Just Regular]

But if we extend Mancini, maybe in 7 years Kyle Stowers will be his junior best friend and they will train together in the offseason       Also they will both play because Ryan Mountcastle won't live up to his 7/161 extension.

On the Royals trade, I somewhat wonder if Dayton Moore is trading out of a moral hazard.    Before this NCAA season I remember his son being forecast into the mix for the Royals at 1-9, but I believe he has had a bad year as I no longer see him in any mock drafts that high.

He is a polished SEC infielder who I guess now might be down in the comp or 2nd round...

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Mancini has a career 7.5% BB rate. Trumbo's was 6.8%. Mancini's is better but not by a lot. We're not talking about a .400 OBP. Mancini is hitting slightly higher with slightly higher OBP but I would still consider him pretty similar to Trumbo overall, trading a bit of power for OBP. I would not consider him a categorically different type of hitter or player. 

Slightly higher? Mancini is a .350 OBP player in the last 4 calendar years despite the cancer and missing a season in between.  Trumbo’ s 4 seasons with the Orioles he’s .305 +/- …. What would you have if every player on your team had a .45 bump in OBP. The low OBP player like I said was a downfall of the old regime. Seems like .310 ish OBP guys were located up and down the lineup. Those teams constantly relied on a homerun to win. I certainly think a baseball player wouldn’t agree that .45 is a small bump. Plus you guys are hanging on the shot his load 47 homerun season.

[Roll Tide]

15 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

But if we extend Mancini, maybe in 7 years Kyle Stowers will be his junior best friend and they will train together in the offseason       Also they will both play because Ryan Mountcastle won't live up to his 7/161 extension.

On the Royals trade, I somewhat wonder if Dayton Moore is trading out of a moral hazard.    Before this NCAA season I remember his son being forecast into the mix for the Royals at 1-9, but I believe he has had a bad year as I no longer see him in any mock drafts that high.

He is a polished SEC infielder who I guess now might be down in the comp or 2nd round...

Who is suggesting a 7 year extension….Even a 3 year is probably a lot. But, I’m in the trade him for value if you can get it. I don’t think it makes sense just to give guys away. I still they they trade him, Santander, & Lopez at minimum. I think if your listening to Elias , …..Urias, Mateo, and Odor or some combination could be moved in one way or another before years end. He said the infielders at AAA could all come up at anytime and it sounded as if that could be very soon

[Orioles Jim]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Doing the Ponson?

Hopefully it’s more Bordick than Ponson.

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Slightly higher? Mancini is a .350 OBP player in the last 4 calendar years despite the cancer and missing a season in between.  Trumbo’ s 4 seasons with the Orioles he’s .305 +/- …. What would you have if every player on your team had a .45 bump in OBP. The low OBP player like I said was a downfall of the old regime. Seems like .310 ish OBP guys were located up and down the lineup. Those teams constantly relied on a homerun to win. I certainly think a baseball player wouldn’t agree that .45 is a small bump. Plus you guys are hanging on the shot his load 47 homerun season.

You are cherry picking Mancini's best years. He is .357 this year, .326 last year, and .335 for his career. Admittedly, that is better than Trumbo's .302. I just would not say with confidence that Trumbo was a predictably bad contract and Mancini could be a predictably good one.

[Roll Tide]

42 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You are cherry picking Mancini's best years. He is .357 this year, .326 last year, and .335 for his career. Admittedly, that is better than Trumbo's .302. I just would not say with confidence that Trumbo was a predictably bad contract and Mancini could be a predictably good one.

Not arguing the contract for Mancini….Trumbo was an overpay and another stupid Peter Angelos move where he negotiated against himself. As for cherry picking…. Trey’s OBP last year was a year back from missing an entire season due to cancer recovery.  BTW, his OBP I figured was average over the last 3 seasons that he played…..so how in your opinion could recent history be cherry picking? It’s ok to be wrong

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Not arguing the contract for Mancini….Trumbo was an overpay and another stupid Peter Angelos move where he negotiated against himself. As for cherry picking…. Trey’s OBP last year was a year back from missing an entire season due to cancer recovery.  BTW, his OBP I figured was average over the last 3 seasons that he played…..so how in your opinion could recent history be cherry picking? It’s ok to be wrong

Why not just look at his career number? 

[jrobb21613]

Paul Blackburn is having a solid year with the last place A’s era 3.36 so9 7.2 BB9 2.3. He’s arbitration eligible next year and a free agent in 2026. The A’s from what I read are willing to move him.

What do you think we would have to give up?

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Why not just look at his career number? 

That would be like looking at Chris Davis’ numbers before the contract to just his value during the contract being much above 0. 3 or 4 seasons of current play is a much better gauge than looking at a whole career. And you could see decline if it was currently happening. As I said before, I’d like to see Trey extended 2-3 years but I know it’s not happening. I think Trey wanted to be here and it would have been easier last offseason. I’m not so sure he wants to be here beyond this season as he might prefer going somewhere more hitter friendly. From his comments he’s not thrilled about the wall.

[waroriole]

5 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

Paul Blackburn is having a solid year with the last place A’s era 3.36 so9 7.2 BB9 2.3. He’s arbitration eligible next year and a free agent in 2026. The A’s from what I read are willing to move him.

What do you think we would have to give up?

Considering this is a career year, the low K rate, and that he’s never pitched 100 innings in MLB, I don’t think I’d give up what Oakland would accept. Baumann and someone else outside our Top 20-25 prospects. 

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

I do think Mancini is a better player than Trumbo, plus after we signed him to an extension Trumbo had some injuries that hampered him significantly.  

Much of age-related decline is actually injuries that limit the player's availability and cause them to play worse when they're on the field. It would be surprising if Mancini got through his early-to-mid 30s healthy, not even considering his cancer. Even Cal eventually started missing games as he aged.

[DrungoHazewood]

29 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Considering this is a career year, the low K rate, and that he’s never pitched 100 innings in MLB, I don’t think I’d give up what Oakland would accept. Baumann and someone else outside our Top 20-25 prospects. 

7.2 K/9 in 2022 is like 4.0 in 1990.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Much of age-related decline is actually injuries that limit the player's availability and cause them to play worse when they're on the field. It would be surprising if Mancini got through his early-to-mid 30s healthy, not even considering his cancer. Even Cal eventually started missing games as he aged.

Yeah, at age 38.  Wimp.