Which of the remaining Free Agents are the best fit for the O's?

[sportsfan8703]

Michael Pineda seems interesting. AL East experience. 
 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/looking-at-the-remaining-free-agent-starters-beyond-rodon-kershaw.html

[Ruzious]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

The current cap is calculated using AAV, I'm positive any future floor would be as well.  

I'm surprised, since that's not the case in the NBA.  But it can still be useful as far as budgeting and doing something to overcome the difficulty we'll have in attracting a good free agent.  I'm willing to listen to better alternatives - rather than continuing to set futility records - which is likely going to happen.    

[Ruzious]

Good take by Steve Adams of MLBTraderumors.com:

 

Steve Adams

11:36

Correa and Scott Boras don't know the answer to that question, nor does the GM/president/owner of the team that's eventually going to sign him. I have a hard time seeing the Cubs go to such great lengths. Admittedly, I didn't think Chicago would do much of anything of note in free agency this winter, so the Stroman deal surprised me. That said, it felt like more of an opportunistic "Well, if we can get him and keep the term to three years, let's do this" approach. Correa is going to want 10+ and $340MM+ ... I can't see the Cubs committing it.

I picked the Phillies in our Top 50 free agent predictions, and because of the lack of clarity on his market, I've just been stubbornly sticking to them.

 

11:37

I wrote about this awhile back for Front Office subscribers, but the team that *should* sign Correa (and won't) is the Orioles. Completely blank payroll slate once Davis is off the books after this season. Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall all up and contributing this season (maybe 2023 for Hall). Correa's only 27, so he'll have plenty of prime years that coincide with the rebuild, etc.

[Ruzious]

The question was - Where will Correa play next season?  

[Sports Guy]

It’s sound logic as to why we should sign him but the contract will be atrocious.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s sound logic as to why we should sign him but the contract will be atrocious.

I'm not so sure- as far as FA contracts go- it will be atrocious.

He's as good a bet as Manny was imo, and Manny's contract is working out pretty well for the Padres- with the obvious caveat that there's a ways to go.

My issue with it would be that I don't think we're one year away from legitimately competing, and the opportunity cost.

Paying Correa 30 million a year for 5 WAR is well enough.  Paying 1:1 500 K a year for 5 WAR is how you win in this division.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm not so sure- as far as FA contracts go- it will be atrocious.

He's as good a bet as Manny was imo, and Manny's contract is working out pretty well for the Padres- with the obvious caveat that there's a ways to go.

My issue with it would be that I don't think we're one year away from legitimately competing, and the opportunity cost.

Paying Correa 30 million a year for 5 WAR is well enough.  Paying 1:1 500 K a year for 5 WAR is how you win in this division.

The year away stuff is the worst reasoning out there.  I really hate reading it.

As for the contract itself…I’m not concerned about the first 4-6 years..it’s the 4-6 years after that.

If we could sign him to a 7 year deal for about 250M(if an opt out has to be in, make it after year 4), I would do that knowing the last year or 2 will probably suck but that would be ok.

But it will probably be more like 10/350 and that’s a no go for me.

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

The year away stuff is the worst reasoning out there.  I really hate reading it.

As for the contract itself…I’m not concerned about the first 4-6 years..it’s the 4-6 years after that.

If we could sign him to a 7 year deal for about 250M(if an opt out has to be in, make it after year 4), I would do that knowing the last year or 2 will probably suck but that would be ok.

But it will probably be more like 10/350 and that’s a no go for me.

You  might not like reading it, but you immediately appeal to the logic of it.

If you're worried about the backend of the contract, and not the frontend, then you want the frontend to be as impactful as possible on Ws and Ls that lead to playoff appearances.

If you sign a guy to a 7 year contract you think is going to be rough the last year or two, and you aren't really going to compete in the first two years of the contract anyway, what have you gained?  And more importantly, what have you gained that wouldn't be available later with less risk?

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You  might not like reading it, but you immediately appeal to the logic of it.

If you're worried about the backend of the contract, and not the frontend, then you want the frontend to be as impactful as possible on Ws and Ls that lead to playoff appearances.

If you sign a guy to a 7 year contract you think is going to be rough the last year or two, and you aren't really going to compete in the first two years of the contract anyway, what have you gained?  And more importantly, what have you gained that wouldn't be available later with less risk?

Well I don’t think this should be a tough year and I think you should contend in 2023 and if you signed Correa, that should be the thought process for everyone.

Also, there isn’t much in free agency next year.

[Pickles]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I don’t think this should be a tough year and I think you should contend in 2023 and if you signed Correa, that should be the thought process for everyone.

Also, there isn’t much in free agency next year.

I mean, I guess opinions vary on how good this team will be this year.  I don't think anyone can make a good argument though that adding Carlos Correa to this team next year somehow makes them competitive.  Maybe if you squint and EVERYTHING goes right you could see it come together in 23.

I think it's fair to point out I've been one of the more pessimistic predictors of the O's the last few years.

I think it's also fair to point out I've been one of the more accurate.

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I mean, I guess opinions vary on how good this team will be this year.  I don't think anyone can make a good argument though that adding Carlos Correa to this team next year somehow makes them competitive.  Maybe if you squint and EVERYTHING goes right you could see it come together in 23.

I think it's fair to point out I've been one of the more pessimistic predictors of the O's the last few years.

I think it's also fair to point out I've been one of the more accurate.

Well, Correa shouldn’t be the only move but you certainly should be able to field a 70-75 win team with Correa, Adley, et al.  If you can’t, Elias should be let go because that’s not exactly difficult to do.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, Correa shouldn’t be the only move but you certainly should be able to field a 70-75 win team with Correa, Adley, et al.  If you can’t, Elias should be let go because that’s not exactly difficult to do.

Yeah, signing Correa could and maybe should lead to 72 wins next year.

Guess what?

You're still finishing in last place in this division.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

Yeah, signing Correa could and maybe should lead to 72 wins next year.

Guess what?

You're still finishing in last place in this division.

So what?  Do you think every FA signed by a team plays in the playoffs every year?  It’s just a poor way of looking at it.

This team should and could contend in 2023.  Landing elite talent now is fine.  They aren’t going from 60 Wins to 95.  It’s just dumb to think that will happen.  There needs to be real improvement first.

Should they keep Adley and GRod in the minors until 2023?  Why waste a year of service time for a last place team?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Yeah, signing Correa could and maybe should lead to 72 wins next year.

Guess what?

You're still finishing in last place in this division.

Correa would be a move that would theoretically payoff in 2023 and beyond.

Me I don't want to block Druw Jones, the Shortstop of the future. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Should they keep Adley and GRod in the minors until 2023?  Why waste a year of service time for a last place team?

Just FYI folks don't respond well to that argument.