Nick Stevens Top 50 Prospects

[dabirds]

For anyone interested:   https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/baltimore-orioles-top-50-prospects-january-2022/

Write-ups on each.  Below is the top 10.

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10) OF Kyle Stowers– Went from an OF prospect who was all over the place on various lists to a consensus Top 10-15 prospect in the game’s top minor league system and someone who could be an everyday starter in the majors by the end of 2022. Led all O’s MiLB hitters with 27 home runs last year and showed he’s more than just a masher. Despite posting strikeout rates between 30-34% at each of his three stops in 2021, Stowers posted walk rates of 16.8/12.3/12.9% and OBPs of .404/.377/.366. The linedrive rate consistently went up and by the time he was AAA, Stowers was spraying the ball all over the field. Defensively, he can play all three spots and has an arm strong enough for RF. Played a good amount of CF early on so should be able to handle a new LF at Camden Yards.

9) RHP Kyle Bradish– Bradish entered 2021 with just 101 pro innings under his belt (all in A+), but the Orioles promoted him to AAA after just 13.2 AA innings last season, speaking volumes of how the Orioles viewed his progress at the Alt Site. Had his good and bad starts (expected of all pitchers) before ending the season as one of the more dominant arms in the league- 5 GS, 25 IP, 5 ER, 6 BB, 30 K. There may be relief risk but with his ability to run his FB up to 95/96 in short stints with two good breaking balls, Bradish could thrive in a short-inning relief role, but there’s still plenty of reasons to believe he can be a valuable rotation piece. Bradish received at least one vote in Baseball America’s recent Top 100 update for 2022.

 OF Heston Kjerstad– The most important thing to mention here is that Kjerstad is healthy again. What a tremendous relief. He was even at a January mini-camp in Sarasota, meaning we’re close to seeing him on the field in a regular season game. Remember, he’s missed a lot of time with a heart issue, so if it takes a while for him to settle in and if he gets more days compared to others, it’s ok.

7) SS Jordan Westburg– Westburg’s first pro season was a gem. Playing across three levels, Westburg slashed a combined .285/.389/.479 with 15 home runs, 27 doubles, 5 triples, and 17 stolen bases. There were questions about how much power we would see out of his bat, the answer is a good amount, with more to tap into. Stayed on the left side of the IF at all three levels where he was arguably the most polished defender on the left side, among those in the upper levels of the system. “Mr. Fundamental” will be a Top 100 prospect before too much longer, yet we have him 7th on our current list. That’s how impressive the top of this class is.

6) 3B Coby Mayo– A strong argument could be made that Mayo should be higher, and you wouldn’t be wrong. We finally saw Mayo make his pro debut after no 2020 season and a minor injury delayed his 2021 campaign. The wait was worth it. Mayo hit .311 in Delmarva with a .416 OBP, 5 HR, a 159 wRC+, and a 12.8% walk rate. His exit velo numbers are elite (max 112 mph last season), his strong/accurate arm at 3B will keep him at the position for the foreseeable future, and he did a solid job of limiting the strikeouts in his first season of work. 2022 will present his first major test, but it’s not just Orioles fans who are quickly boarding the Coby Mayo hype train. His ceiling is enormously high.

5) OF Colton Cowser– Made rookie ball and Low-A look like little league ball. Cowser hit .500 in seven FCL games before ending the year by hitting .347 with a .476 OBP and 158 wRC+ in 25 games at Delmarva. He also walked more times (25) than he struck out (23). Didn’t see much of his power, but his plate awareness is one of the more advanced skill sets in the organization and his ability to pump the brakes and simply go with what pitchers are feeding him was very impressive. If he starts in A+, he won’t be there long. Will be nice to see him really challenged, both at the plate and in center.

4) SS Gunnar Henderson– One could nitpick Henderson’s stats and flaws but let’s not overlook the most important thing here- Henderson played across three levels in his first pro season, reaching AA to end the year where he was 4 years younger than his peers. He won’t turn 21 until late June. Hit 17 home runs, showing impressive opposite-field strength, and the ability to draw a larger number of walks. Made big gains not just physically and statistically, but mentally as well as he learned how to overcome extended struggles. Still a work in progress defensively, but it’s all about harnessing the impressive tools he has, not a lack of ability.

3) LHP DL Hall– Getting just seven starts out of DL Hall was probably the biggest disappointment of the 2021 minor league season, in terms of player development. But we still saw a new DL Hall in 2021. Oozing with confidence, Hall struck out 43.8% of hitters he faced with a 2.33 xFIP, and a 60% groundball rate. The walks were still higher than what you want to see, but he showed improvement. As pointed out by Baseball America, Hall is the only pitcher on their Top 100 list who had a 40%+ whiff rate on four different pitches (we know, small sample size alert). At the end of the day, Hall is one of the more electric pitching prospects in all of baseball and he’s quickly working back to being fully healthy again. Could be a fun 2022.

2) RHP Grayson Rodriguez– Took a big step forward in 2021, firmly entrenching himself as the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. Topped out at 101, literally destroyed Adley Rutschman’s glove at one point, and averaged 97 mph with his fastball. Armed with four plus-pitches and impeccable command, Rodriguez went 9-1 with a 2.36 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, .159 BAA, and 161 K to 27 BB in 103 IP between A+/AA. Per Baseball America, his FB generated the fewest whiffs of all his pitches at 37%. Should note that only two other Top 100 pitchers had a higher whiff rate with their FB. Was the only pitcher in MiLB with a strikeout rate north of 40% (among qualified, full-season pitchers). Very real chance that we get to go to Camden Yards later in the year to watch Grayson Rodriguez pitch to Adley Rutschman. If that doesn’t get your heart racing, baseball might not be your thing.

1) C Adley Rutschman– He’s the top overall prospect in baseball with elite defensive abilities, and he makes everyone around him better. Last season was his first full season of pro ball and all he did was slash .285/.397/.502 with 23 HR, 25 2B, and a 90/79 K/BB mark. What else is there to say that already hasn’t been highlighted by his peers and coaches? The only question is, when will we see him in the majors?

 

[Ridgway22]

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Loved this comment:

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Very real chance that we get to go to Camden Yards later in the year to watch Grayson Rodriguez pitch to Adley Rutschman. If that doesn’t get your heart racing, baseball might not be your thing.

 

[connja]

Anyone have a tip on how to remember who is who between Issac De Leon and Anderson De Los Santos?

[Sports Guy]

17 hours ago, dabirds said:

For anyone interested:   https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/baltimore-orioles-top-50-prospects-january-2022/

Write-ups on each.  Below is the top 10.

 

Really overrated Baumann, Vavra and Bradish.

Very aggressive on the new Intl signings.  Not saying I dislike that but I don’t think you can put any of them ahead of Hernandez and especially Basallo at this time.

[Frobby]

Very different from Tony’s list once you get outside the top 10.   Biggest differences:

- Tony has Bautista 22 and Willems 24.   Stevens doesn’t list either in his top 50.

- Tony has Baumler at 16, Stevens has him at 28.

- Tony has Young at 23, Stevens has him at 35.

- Stevens has Haskin at 19, Tony has him at 29.

- Tony has Lowther at 15 and Baumann at 18, Stevens has Baumann at 11 and Lowther at 24.

There’s some other big discrepancies on the bottom half of the list.   I can’t access Tony’s 31-50 list due to some technical difficulties.   Tony’s list came out before the Jan. 15 international signings, whereas Stevens includes four of the recent signees (Tavera 14, Prieto 20, Arias 36, Amparo 39).

Lots of names to follow.  

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Really overrated Baumann, Vavra and Bradish.

Very aggressive on the new Intl signings.  Not saying I dislike that but I don’t think you can put any of them ahead of Hernandez and especially Basallo at this time.

Where would you put Bradish, Vavra, and Baumann?  I think the rankings for all three are reasonable.  I'm skeptical of Baumann but he was easily a top ten guy before the injury.  I also question describing him as a 4 pitch pitcher.   If you look at the way Bradish dominated in 3 starts in Bowie and his last 5 starts in Norfolk, #9 can be defended.   If you extrapolate Vavra's numbers over a full season they would have been pretty impressive.  He got hurt so we don't know.

 

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Very different from Tony’s list once you get outside the top 10.   Biggest differences:

- Tony has Bautista 22 and Willems 24.   Stevens doesn’t list either in his top 50.

- Tony has Baumler at 16, Stevens has him at 28.

- Tony has Young at 23, Stevens has him at 35.

- Stevens has Haskin at 19, Tony has him at 29.

- Tony has Lowther at 15 and Baumann at 18, Stevens has Baumann at 11 and Lowther at 24.

There’s some other big discrepancies on the bottom half of the list.   I can’t access Tony’s 31-50 list due to some technical difficulties.   Tony’s list came out before the Jan. 15 international signings, whereas Stevens includes four of the recent signees (Tavera 14, Prieto 20, Arias 36, Amparo 39).

Lots of names to follow.  

Good stuff as always.  Looking at like this I tend to agree with Tony a bit more.  Felix Bautista has to be a top 30 guy.  Willems could be a "too early to tell" as we have almost nothing to go on but you could say the same thing about Braylin Tavera.  Certainly more buzz in the scouting community on Tavera versus Willems.   The one where I would tilt towars Stevens over Tony is the more conservative ranking on Baumler.  He's got zero track record, wasn't considered a 1st round talent at draft time, and is coming off of TJ surgery.  He might shoot up the rankings this year but I think 28 is defensible for him.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Where would you put Bradish, Vavra, and Baumann?  I think the rankings for all three are reasonable.  I'm skeptical of Baumann but he was easily a top ten guy before the injury.  I also question describing him as a 4 pitch pitcher.   If you look at the way Bradish dominated in 3 starts in Bowie and his last 5 starts in Norfolk, #9 can be defended.   If you extrapolate Vavra's numbers over a full season they would have been pretty impressive.  He got hurt so we don't know.

 

Baumann would definitely be outside the top 20 for me.

Bradish would probably be in the 14-18 range.

Vavra likely in the high teens/low 20s

 

[Sports Guy]

This would be my top 20:

• Adley
• GRod
• Mayo
• Hall
• Henderson
• Westburg
• Cowser
• Kjerstad
• Stowers
• Norby
• Pinto
• Basallo
• Rom
• Hernandez
• Bradish
• Baumler
• Tavera
• Lowther
• Vavra
• Prieto

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This would be my top 20:

• Adley
• GRod
• Mayo
• Hall
• Henderson
• Westburg
• Cowser
• Kjerstad
• Stowers
• Norby
• Pinto
• Basallo
• Rom
• Hernandez
• Bradish
• Baumler
• Tavera
• Lowther
• Vavra
• Prieto

Trying to remember how voted at the time when Tony did his. The top 4 are still in the same order IIRC.

I had Cowser 5 originally and really, I think you can rank Henderson, Westburg and Cowser in any order.  I think after reading more stuff on Henderson and Westburg, I am giving them the slight advantage in terms of upside, largely because of position.  I am not sure I buy into Cowser being a CFer and that dings him slightly.  Not that he can't end up in CF, just have doubts.  While I still would have preferred Lawlar, I really like the Cowser pick and expect him to be in the majors in 2023.

I believe the rest of the top 15 is in line with how I voted as well.  Possible a few guys are a spot or so different but generally speaking, thats about where I would put them.  Again, many of them are close.  I have said I think Pinto is our 3rd best pitching prospect mainly because of age and upside.  Bradish is probably a guy with a higher floor though.

Obviously Tevara and Prieto are new.  I don't see putting Tevara ahead of Hernandez or Basallo although I don't mind it either.  Can't put Prieto over Vavra when they are close in age and Vavra has done good things in the minors already.

Baumler is there strictly on upside.  I tend to agree with RZ's point that ranking him  that high is aggressive and maybe too aggressive but the upside is huge and the TJ surgery doesn't really bother me. 

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, connja said:

Anyone have a tip on how to remember who is who between Issac De Leon and Anderson De Los Santos?

This won't be hard in a few years as De Los Santos is the much better prospect.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This won't be hard in a few years as De Los Santos is the much better prospect.

Honestly, it’s not that hard now, as neither the names nor the abilities are that similar.  

[wildcard]

The difference on Baumann and Bradish are whether they turn out to be starters or relievers.   Tony placed them as relievers IMO.   And he may turn out to be right.   Several ranking services will have Bradish and Baumann in the 8 to 12 areas because they enter 2022  as starters and  will have a chance to stay there if they do well.

I think the O's may follow Tampa pitching model in 2022  with Bradish and Baumann falling into being starter/bulk guys.  Tampa does not require their starters to go 5 innings and sometimes uses Openers to pitch an inning or two before bringing in bulk guys.    Tampa won 100 game doing this and while the O's don't that the relievers or position players  to win  that number of games, it could be the pitching model the O's follow.

[Sports Guy]

39 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The difference on Baumann and Bradish are whether they turn out to be starters or relievers.   Tony placed them as relievers IMO.   And he may turn out to be right.   Several ranking services will have Bradish and Baumann in the 8 to 12 areas because they enter 2022  as starters and  will have a chance to stay there if they do well.

I think the O's may follow Tampa pitching model in 2022  with Bradish and Baumann falling into being starter/bulk guys.  Tampa does not require their starters to go 5 innings and sometimes uses Openers to pitch an inning or two before bringing in bulk guys.    Tampa won 100 game doing this and while the O's don't that the relievers or position players  to win  that number of games, it could be the pitching model the O's follow.

I heard the Os are also exploring splitting time between 2 cities too.  #weareclearlydoingeverythingtampadoes

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I heard the Os are also exploring splitting time between 2 cities too.  #weareclearlydoingeverythingtampadoes

This may be a case where following what Tampa is doing may be a good approach given our personnel.