What is Elias' plan to contend and what should it be?

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

OOOOOOO offers out?  I wonder what AAAA types we're bringing in?

Correa 

[geschinger]

I would like to see them target any FA who are aren't getting the kind of deals they want - the overlooked and undervalued. Let them establish value and then flip for more prospects in July.

[SteveA]

25 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So I was listening to the radio and they played a clip from Elias saying he had a few offers out.

See the pinned spring training thread at the top of this board for the big Beau Taylor news.

[Sports Guy]

Who?

[hutchead]

Sports Guy, I love your passion. I really do. But there's one thing I just don't get with your insistence that you're right in everything that you are advocating that the Orioles should be doing. What you are describing in what you think management should be doing is EXACTLY what management did from 1998 - 2011! What was the result of that? I'll tell you. It was 14 consecutive years of losing records. We tried that approach. It didn't work. Why on earth do you want to go back to a proven failed approach?? We never won enough games to have a winning record, yet we never lost enough games to get good enough draft picks to draft guys that could move the needle. That's because we kept doing what you are advocating now - sign guys who would help us win 10 more games a season but we were still just spinning our wheels year after year. 

Now do I know for a fact that this "losing approach" is going to be any better? No. But I do know that we have a much better farm system because of it which greatly increases our odds of that happening. And I also know that your approach didn't work in those 14 years. So why not let this play out to see if it will work? I'm like many others here. I'll be as frustrated as you if we don't start seeing results real soon but I don't think it's unreasonable to give Elias one more year.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, hutchead said:

Sports Guy, I love your passion. I really do. But there's one thing I just don't get with your insistence that you're right in everything that you are advocating that the Orioles should be doing. What you are describing in what you think management should be doing is EXACTLY what management did from 1998 - 2011! What was the result of that? I'll tell you. It was 14 consecutive years of losing records. We tried that approach. It didn't work. Why on earth do you want to go back to a proven failed approach?? We never won enough games to have a winning record, yet we never lost enough games to get good enough draft picks to draft guys that could move the needle. That's because we kept doing what you are advocating now - sign guys who would help us win 10 more games a season but we were still just spinning our wheels year after year. 

Now do I know for a fact that this "losing approach" is going to be any better? No. But I do know that we have a much better farm system because of it which greatly increases our odds of that happening. And I also know that your approach didn't work in those 14 years. So why not let this play out to see if it will work? I'm like many others here. I'll be as frustrated as you if we don't start seeing results real soon but I don't think it's unreasonable to give Elias one more year.

So Markakis (2003),  Wieters (2007) and Machado (2010) didn't move your needle?

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol..this is a terrible analogy.

 

No it's not. You're just being obtuse.

All things being equal, it's better to have more assets with which to purchase other assets than less assets with which to purchase other assets.

That doesn't mean the poor guy can't purchase Mike Trout 28th overall, or whatever he was. But the richer guy also had that opportunity, plus others that the poor guy never gets.

It doesn't excuse the poor guy stinking at his job, but it helps the same person in the richer circumstance. To deny that is asinine.

[btdart20]

I think the main piece of the plan is controlling what we can control.  Almost all of the minor league interviews posted focused on that to a great degree.  The players focus on what they can control.  Not what the team decisions are, not what the resulting stats are. 

The same with Elias.  He doesn’t have complete control over the budget.  So, he’s focused on “stacking bodies” and developing talent.  Stacking bodies will always be a thing just like it is in any industry (lower costs/increase production). 

·         Amateur, international, and rule 5 drafts.  We’re getting toward the end of the pit of despair.  But we started behind the curve internationally.

·         Developing talent is adding the software, hardware, facilities, techniques, scouting data, etc. to the tool belt of managers and players.  They aren’t just looking at the hard data to help with getting the most velocity or ideal LA.  But the soft data like mental approach to injury recovery (and maybe even draft selection).  Sounds like we started behind the curve on this too.

Stacking bodies is the gas that drives the engine.  Elias is delivering on this piece.  It’s not just us on the O’s chat board in our own echo chambers saying it either…  But this will always be a focus.  Not focusing on drafting/developing is why we had to go through this crappy rebuild the last few years.  That’s the plan.

Now, at some point we’ll need other ways to fill in the gaps and improvement.  When?  How? 

·         Free agent spending is a high-cost way of doing business because these players have a history.  Even large market teams get gun shy and realize they can’t win it all unless they get production through lower cost ways (i.e. the Yanks aren’t bidding on Correa because they are hoping on Volpe).  Obviously this is a fan favorite and gets a ton of headlines because you see immediate results.  But there’s also the aging and motivation factors at play too.

o   Elias has been targeting bottom tier talent.

§  I would have liked to see them do a bit more ‘reclamation’ (sign and trade) type signings.  But maybe this is where the home field and AL East opponents come into play (not “whining”, just looking for an underlying reason) and rebounding players would weigh those ‘risks’ with pitching in SF (pitcher park and no DH in the past).  Those they've tried haven't worked out well.

§  Whether not going for mid/top tier talent part of the plan or part of the budget now/going forward isn’t known.  A case can be made either way at this point.  But not before now.  We haven’t seen evidence of it.  But it could just be that Elias is still reading the talent tea leaves.

o   At some point, mid/top FA signings should at least be a consideration.  As others have said, we should have the revenue space to warrant an increase in payroll.  But we can’t expect them to sign a Albert Pujols type deal every year. (Correa would be a great way to fill in a gap and give some flexibility to use the body count in other ways.)

·         Trading requires a body count of marketable talent.  The O’s haven’t had that in a while.  And when they did, they failed to capitalize on it thinking they were competitive.  Teams like the M’s and Rays have done this well over the years.  But they started with the body count of talent to trade away.  And they timed the market (buy low/sell high).

o   The M’s current roster has 8 of the 9 bats were acquired through a trade since 2018.  The ninth (Haniger) was from a trade in 2016.  They are just now at a spot where they are adding a lot to payroll (Eugenio through trade, Ray via FA). 

o   Tampa’s current roster has 6 of 9 from a trade.  3 were draft/international.  3 SPs were from a trade, 1 drafted, and 1 FA (Kluber).  Bullpen has only 3 not from a trade.

o   Mullins and Means are our most marketable talent.  And both have question marks from a market perspective.  And it’s hard to lose your best hitter/pitcher from a team/fan perspective.  Mancini and Santander are the most tradeable from an O’s perspective. 

But again, stacking bodies drives the machine.

 

·         Assuming there is a ‘next phase’ to building a winner (i.e. more spending, FA signings), what would be the things Elias would be looking for?  Or maybe put another way, what type of data would Elias pitch to Angelos to increase payroll?

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

No it's not. You're just being obtuse.

All things being equal, it's better to have more assets with which to purchase other assets than less assets with which to purchase other assets.

That doesn't mean the poor guy can't purchase Mike Trout 28th overall, or whatever he was. But the richer guy also had that opportunity, plus others that the poor guy never gets.

It doesn't excuse the poor guy stinking at his job, but it helps the same person in the richer circumstance. To deny that is asinine.

And yet many of the “poor guys” are routinely putting together really good farm systems and routinely bringing up or trading good prospects to help their big league roster, all the while doing it not trying to win 60 games.

Its amazing.  Impossible!!

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, hutchead said:

Sports Guy, I love your passion. I really do. But there's one thing I just don't get with your insistence that you're right in everything that you are advocating that the Orioles should be doing. What you are describing in what you think management should be doing is EXACTLY what management did from 1998 - 2011! What was the result of that? I'll tell you. It was 14 consecutive years of losing records. We tried that approach. It didn't work. Why on earth do you want to go back to a proven failed approach?? We never won enough games to have a winning record, yet we never lost enough games to get good enough draft picks to draft guys that could move the needle. That's because we kept doing what you are advocating now - sign guys who would help us win 10 more games a season but we were still just spinning our wheels year after year. 

Now do I know for a fact that this "losing approach" is going to be any better? No. But I do know that we have a much better farm system because of it which greatly increases our odds of that happening. And I also know that your approach didn't work in those 14 years. So why not let this play out to see if it will work? I'm like many others here. I'll be as frustrated as you if we don't start seeing results real soon but I don't think it's unreasonable to give Elias one more year.

I stopped when you said what I’m asking for is what they did in those years.

That is a complete misrepresentation of anything I have said. 
 

Once I read that lie, it wasn’t worth it to keep reading.

[TonySoprano]

7 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Now where I differ with SG is that I'm not really upset about it...I'm pretty close not to caring.  I'll still watch, I'll still mix it up on here and stuff but they're going to do what they're going to do and banging away on here won't change that.  It's just not a good constructive use of time to rehash the same points over and over again, speaking strictly for myself.  

So says the guy with 27K posts.  Here's some buddhist wisdom for you 

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well if I engaged in normal talk, that'd make me like everyone else.  I'm sorry I don't treat sports message board warfare like it's a real job.  I know this is serious business for you.

Sure we're crazy for supporting this franchise.  But you could stop caring as much like Drungo and me.  It's pretty nice.

Well, sorta.  You don't lose your mind over the Orioles as much but something fills that gap.  I'm a big fan of the U14 St. Mary's Strikers and U15 St. Mary's Sting, and if it's tough watching John Means lose a tight game try it with your own kids.

Also, I've filled the TV sports gap with a lot of soccer, mostly teams that are more like the Orioles than not.  So I won't pretend not caring about the Orioles has brought me to a state of enlightenment.  Maybe if I just filled the spare time with tinkering on cars or going to the opera or something...

[hutchead]

57 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So Markakis (2003),  Wieters (2007) and Machado (2010) didn't move your needle?

It sure didn't move the team's needle. 14 consecutive losing seasons. 'Nuff said.

[hutchead]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I stopped when you said what I’m asking for is what they did in those years.

That is a complete misrepresentation of anything I have said. 
 

Once I read that lie, it wasn’t worth it to keep reading.

It's not a misrepresentation at all. That's simply your comeback every time you lose an argument with anyone on here.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, hutchead said:

It sure didn't move the team's needle. 14 consecutive losing seasons. 'Nuff said.

So those three players weren't on the 2012 team?