What is Elias' plan to contend and what should it be?

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Certainly.  So what good is crying about it doing?

IMO, Elias appears to be at a crossroads where he has to step up and show he can swing a trade or sign a big time free agent.  And he's shown neither for years now.

So either he can't do one or the other (or both) or he's just biding his time.  I think he is what he is...a really smart guy who can set up a farm system and bring in analytics but probably falls short in the wheeling and dealing category.  Remains to be seen if he's got enough to get this team where it needs to be while only using his strengths but it's probably not enough. 

I do think Elias needs to show he can start improving the team to win, but I still think next offseason will be the real test. I think we're one season more season of evaluating some top talent at upper portions of the minor league system to see what they've got, then they can start wheeling and dealing and signing.

While I would be surprised and happy if they signed Correa, i just don't think they will since i think they will save that money for starting pitching. Afterall, their entire drafting philosophy has been to draft bats in those first ten rounds outside a few picks. 

I think the idea is they are better at identifying good positional talent out of college and high school that can be moved for more mature pitching that is easier to evaluate through either their performance in upper minors or the majors.

I understand why SG and some others are upset, I just think it's premature. If we're having the same kind of offseason next year, I'll be on board with their concerns.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

My point in this thread isn't to question what's known, it's to question the unknown part, which is at what pace is Elias going to do this stuff?

There seems to be a walk before you jog. Jog before you run. Then, maybe, run approach. That will take quite a while.

 

 

And hope they don't pull something in the meantime! 

I keed, I keed... Kinda

[John Gibson]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not premature to make the right long term commitments.  That’s a fallacy.  

Is it though?  Any examples of the kind of moves you want the Orioles to make having been done by other 100+ loss teams that worked out?  Where that commitment ended up being a key cog on a team that went on to win a championship or at the very least had sustained success?

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I do think Elias needs to show he can start improving the team to win, but I still think next offseason will be the real test. I think we're one season more season of evaluating some top talent at upper portions of the minor league system to see what they've got, then they can start wheeling and dealing and signing.

While I would be surprised and happy if they signed Correa, i just don't think they will since i think they will save that money for starting pitching. Afterall, their entire drafting philosophy has been to draft bats in those first ten rounds outside a few picks. 

I think the idea is they are better at identifying good positional talent out of college and high school that can be moved for more mature pitching that is easier to evaluate through either their performance in upper minors or the majors.

I understand why SG and some others are upset, I just think it's premature. If we're having the same kind of offseason next year, I'll be on board with their concerns.

I side with SG, just not as vociferously.  I mean, I think if you see an opening to make your team better you probably should no matter where you are.  Evaluating talent is great but some of that talent can be traded to make your 40 man roster and 25 man roster better.  And that's not taking into account that they won't sign a good free agent...it's nothing but scrap heap talent.

Now where I agree with YOU is that not every move can be a game changing move.  The Owings move was what it was, just some organizational filler and he'll probably see some time in Baltimore.  A move like that shouldn't prohibit us from going after a real legit 3 or 4 win middle infielder in free agency or acquiring one via trade in theory.  IN THEORY.  But it's the Orioles and we know they're not going to spend big bucks.  So it's easy to get pissed off at a move like that because people tend to think it's a one or the other type of move.  Yesterday, the Braves made a trade for Matt Olson that signaled that the Freddie Freeman era is over, that is obvious.  But signing a guy like Owings shouldn't signal to anyone that they won't sign a good middle infielder or a star like Correa....again, in theory.  But we know they're not going to spend because history shows us that they won't.  

Now where I differ with SG is that I'm not really upset about it...I'm pretty close not to caring.  I'll still watch, I'll still mix it up on here and stuff but they're going to do what they're going to do and banging away on here won't change that.  It's just not a good constructive use of time to rehash the same points over and over again, speaking strictly for myself.  

Even though I just railed against rehashing the same points over and over again, I'll say again what I said yesterday...I'm taking a Buddhist like approach to all of this.  Quite frankly, being an Orioles fan is a lesson in suffering and any little good thing is a surprise.  I can't think of any other way to approach it these days.  

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, John Gibson said:

Is it though?  Any examples of the kind of moves you want the Orioles to make having been done by other 100+ loss teams that worked out?  Where that commitment ended up being a key cog on a team that went on to win a championship or at the very least had sustained success?

Yea it is and I don’t really care what other teams have done.  Other teams aren’t in our division.  Other teams haven’t been a joke for most of the last 25 years.  
 

And yes, it’s an overall philosophy with rebuilding but it’s a dumb one.  Fans buy into it and it’s foolish.  Owners want to save the money.  That’s all it is.

The Nats signing Werth is probably an example.  We will see with Texas this year.  Texas is saying, we aren’t going to lose on purpose for years because why?  It doesn’t help you.  Not saying what they did is right but the thought process is correct.

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I do think Elias needs to show he can start improving the team to win, but I still think next offseason will be the real test. I think we're one season more season of evaluating some top talent at upper portions of the minor league system to see what they've got, then they can start wheeling and dealing and signing.

While I would be surprised and happy if they signed Correa, i just don't think they will since i think they will save that money for starting pitching. Afterall, their entire drafting philosophy has been to draft bats in those first ten rounds outside a few picks. 

I think the idea is they are better at identifying good positional talent out of college and high school that can be moved for more mature pitching that is easier to evaluate through either their performance in upper minors or the majors.

I understand why SG and some others are upset, I just think it's premature. If we're having the same kind of offseason next year, I'll be on board with their concerns.

I don’t see why waiting until next year is needed.  I have yet to see good reasoning for that.

Adley, GRod, Stowers and Hall are all likely here by June or so.  Others could follow too.  Mountcastle, means, Mullins and Hays are solid productive players that you have right now.

No reason not to start bringing in better players and surrounding these guys with actual MLers that can help them learn to win games.

And btw, what are you spending your money in next year?  The FA list sucks.  Going to make trades?  Ok, will you be ready to do that?  What if guys struggle or get hurt and don’t carry enough value to trade them?  Then what?  Still just going through the process?  
 

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t see why waiting until next year is needed.  I have yet to see good reasoning for that.

Adley, GRod, Stowers and Hall are all likely here by June or so.  Others could follow too.  Mountcastle, means, Mullins and Hays are solid productive players that you have right now.

No reason not to start bringing in better players and surrounding these guys with actual MLers that can help them learn to win games.

And btw, what are you spending your money in next year?  The FA list sucks.  Going to make trades?  Ok, will you be ready to do that?  What if guys struggle or get hurt and don’t carry enough value to trade them?  Then what?  Still just going through the process?  
 

I'm not against going after someone like Correa this year, I just don't see the Orioles doing it for lots of reasons, to include an ownership that has shown no interest in spending.

Other than Correa, I don't see a player I'd spend big bucks on because the system is strong with positional prospects. 

Should they consider trades for players like Mullins, Hays, Means, Mancini and any reliever, sure, but it has to be the right return. 

This has been short offseason because of the lockout and if they can get a deal done with Correa then great, because that shores up the SS position for some time, but outside of him, I don't see a guy you break the bank for.

i know you have some trades in mind that you would do, but we have no idea if those trades are available so you can't blame Elias for not making them. 

In the end, I just think next offseason will be a big offseason for the club to shape the team into a contender.

I do think that will be made more through trades than free agency though because the talent in the farm system will have more value if they do well at higher levels.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not against going after someone like Correa this year, I just don't see the Orioles doing it for lots of reasons, to include an ownership that has shown no interest in spending.

Other than Correa, I don't see a player I'd spend big bucks on because the system is strong with positional prospects. 

Should they consider trades for players like Mullins, Hays, Means, Mancini and any reliever, sure, but it has to be the right return. 

This has been short offseason because of the lockout and if they can get a deal done with Correa then great, because that shores up the SS position for some time, but outside of him, I don't see a guy you break the bank for.

i know you have some trades in mind that you would do, but we have no idea if those trades are available so you can't blame Elias for not making them. 

In the end, I just think next offseason will be a big offseason for the club to shape the team into a contender.

I do think that will be made more through trades than free agency though because the talent in the farm system will have more value if they do well at higher levels.

 

 

First of all, it’s all on ownership.  I know they are truly the ones who don’t care about the product or the fans.

But still, I don’t think ownership is stopping them from getting Paul DeJong or Brian Anderson Or trading with some team that has a blocked SS or 3rd baseman or something along those lines.

 

[forphase1]

43 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

My point in this thread isn't to question what's known, it's to question the unknown part, which is at what pace is Elias going to do this stuff?

There seems to be a walk before you jog. Jog before you run. Then, maybe, run approach. That will take quite a while.

 

 

As I said, I don't quite think we are at the point where signing expensive, long term contracts makes a ton of sense, nor is the farm system deep enough yet to start building the MLB team by trading assets in the minors.  In my opinion, IF some of these young guys who should be making their MLB debuts this year (AR, GRod, Hall, etc etc) perform well, and we get another year of fleshing out who else we have in the minors almost MLB ready (Gunnar, Cowser, Westburg, Kjerstad, etc) then we will know better where our holes are that need supplemented by free agency and what depth we have that can be traded to help the MLB team.  Let's break it down a bit by position:

Catcher - the near future should be held down by AR, so no real help should be needed there

1B - Mountcastle for the foreseeable future likely.  This shouldn't need help as some of the others could be shifted to here if needed.

2nd - some questions here.  Norby and Vavra may be options, but Norby is too new to know what we've got, and I don't think Vavra is the answer myself.  This is a clear need IMO that will need filled by FA or trades.

SS - A combination of Gunnar and Westburg are in play here, though some question if Gunnar can stick at SS or move to 3rd.  Like 2nd base this one may need filled by FA or trades, depending on how they pan out.

3rd - I think Gunnar ends up here, but between him and Mayo I think this one gets solved.  Mayo is still a few years away, so we may need to sign or trade for someone under team control for a few years until he's ready, if Gunnar doesn't do it.

OF - With what we already have in the MLB and Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers, and others I THINK this along with catcher is a position we don't need to acquire anyone outside of the organization to help, and could maybe later trade some of the surplus, though I'd want at least this year results to determine which we want to keep and which are surplus to move.

P - not even going to dive into it, as clearly we need help both in FA and trades to fill in some of the pitching gaps.  We have lots of arms, but other than Rodriguez and Hall, I'm not sure any of them are long term starting answers, and of course Hall has health issues.  

 

All that to say I don't think this is the year to add as we still have too many question marks.  But I expect, and hope, for some of those question marks to be answered this year, especially exactly what holes we need to fill with FA and trades in the middle infield positions.  As to the walking, to jogging to running metaphor, I think you are right.  Currently I see us as walking the past few years, this year really get to seriously jogging with next year beginning to run a bit.  Though I like a crawl before you walk before you run idea.  If you try to run before you know how to walk, accidents and injuries occur.  Trying to force movement when we aren't yet ready could hurt more than help, especially when it comes to trading our young talent until we've been able to determine what we've really got. 

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, it’s all on ownership.  I know they are truly the ones who don’t care about the product or the fans.

But still, I don’t think ownership is stopping them from getting Paul DeJong or Brian Anderson Or trading with some team that has a blocked SS or 3rd baseman or something along those lines.

 

Not sure what you see in DeJong. Seems like he's going to make a decent chunk of change for a guy who is going to give you decent defense but a below average stick at SS. Anderson would be better than Gutierrez at 3b, but he's not part of the future here so who are you giving up for him?

You act like teams have blocked major league SS and 3B and I would just say, then who are they? I don't have an issue with upgrading the defense at SS and overall at 3B, but 3B is a place where the Orioles have a lot of potential candidates that should start being ready by 2023.

[John Gibson]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And yes, it’s an overall philosophy with rebuilding but it’s a dumb one.  Fans buy into it and it’s foolish.  Owners want to save the money.  That’s all it is.

The Nats signing Werth is probably an example.  We will see with Texas this year.  Texas is saying, we aren’t going to lose on purpose for years because why?  It doesn’t help you.  Not saying what they did is right but the thought process is correct.

It seems silly to call a philosophy that has been proven to work a dumb one.  The Orioles went out and hired a front office that implemented that philosophy successfully to bring it to Baltimore. We shouldn't be surprised that they aren't deviating from that philosophy and getting aggressive bringing in established players.

While losing on purpose is a lot less valuable under the new CBA it is indisputable that it was worthwhile.  It is indisputable that the Orioles pipeline is better today than it could have otherwise been if they had tried to win and got to 75-80 wins the past few years.  Same with the Astros and same with the Nats - losing 100+ in 2008/9 was crucial to the sustained success they would have a few years later.  It wasn't until they got to ~70 wins and then went out and signed Werth - consistent with the timeline Tony talks about and maybe a year quicker than what Houston did.  Still premature for where Baltimore is at.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Even though I just railed against rehashing the same points over and over again, I'll say again what I said yesterday...I'm taking a Buddhist like approach to all of this.  Quite frankly, being an Orioles fan is a lesson in suffering and any little good thing is a surprise.  I can't think of any other way to approach it these days.  

Isn't that sports in general?  Are there people who root for teams that win all the time, and if so do those people have a soul?

(I say this less than a week after Virginia Tech wins the ACC basketball tournament.  I almost didn't know how to deal with that, my teams are always supposed to come up short, often light years short.)

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not sure what you see in DeJong. Seems like he's going to make a decent chunk of change for a guy who is going to give you decent defense but a below average stick at SS. Anderson would be better than Gutierrez at 3b, but he's not part of the future here so who are you giving up for him?

You act like teams have blocked major league SS and 3B and I would just say, then who are they? I don't have an issue with upgrading the defense at SS and overall at 3B, but 3B is a place where the Orioles have a lot of potential candidates that should start being ready by 2023.

DeJong is almost exactly what Hardy was before we got him.  He’s excellent defensively and has a solid upside with the bat for a SS.  He is signed to a very cheap, team friendly deal.

Anderson could be here for a few years if needs be.  Another very good defense, high OBP guy. 
 

We don’t have to acquire guys that only help long term.  Being better and supporting the young players now is a good thing. 

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, John Gibson said:

It seems silly to call a philosophy that has been proven to work a dumb one.  The Orioles went out and hired a front office that implemented that philosophy successfully to bring it to Baltimore. We shouldn't be surprised that they aren't deviating from that philosophy and getting aggressive bringing in established players.

While losing on purpose is a lot less valuable under the new CBA it is indisputable that it was worthwhile.  It is indisputable that the Orioles pipeline is better today than it could have otherwise been if they had tried to win and got to 75-80 wins the past few years.  Same with the Astros and same with the Nats - losing 100+ in 2008/9 was crucial to the sustained success they would have a few years later.  It wasn't until they got to ~70 wins and then went out and signed Werth - consistent with the timeline Tony talks about and maybe a year quicker than what Houston did.  Still premature for where Baltimore is at.

How has losing on purpose helped the farm system outside of maybe the draft (and btw, with how the orioles have drafted, the last few drafts could have happened the exact same way)?

And to say that losing on purpose is a strategy that has worked is the fallacy.  You don’t have to lose on purpose to draft and develop well or have a good intl pipeline or have a top farm system.  None of that is done because of losing on purpose.  Plenty of teams win a lot and build their farm systems well.  It is not a pre-req to lose 100 games to do those things.  
 

The Dodgers draft near the bottom of the league every year and accomplish the same stuff.  The Rays are doing it.  The Cardinals…just to name a few.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Isn't that sports in general?  Are there people who root for teams that win all the time, and if so do those people have a soul?

(I say this less than a week after Virginia Tech wins the ACC basketball tournament.  I almost didn't know how to deal with that, my teams are always supposed to come up short, often light years short.)

Eh, I suppose it is.  I'm just not getting angry at the Orioles anymore for being stupid, not willing to spend money, etc.  Like I said, you can't get mad at water for being wet.