Os comp balance pick

[Sports Guy]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-competitive-balance-rounds-set-2022
 

#1 comp balance pick.

Os have 3 of the top 40 picks.

[Yossarian]

What is the over-under on career WAR from those three picks?

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

What is the over-under on career WAR from those three picks?

Not as high as you might think.  There have been 56 drafts.   The median picks in those three spots were 12.8 for 1-1, and never played in the majors for 1-31 and 2-1.   

Now, factor in that drafting arguably has gotten better over time; 10-15 of the 1-1’s haven’t finished their careers yet, and the most recently drafted 3-5 at each spot may yet reach the majors.   Maybe that gets you to an adjusted median of 20 WAR.
 

[btdart20]

Keeping stacking talent...  And the extra slot money helps spread the risk too.

[Ruzious]

I'm guessing the Picks after Competitive Balance Round B in

[Ruzious]

Just now, Ruzious said:

I'm guessing the Picks after Competitive Balance Round B in

Lol - not sure what happened there.  Anyway, I'm guessing the Picks after Competitive Balance Round B from the article are grandfathered in from the previous CBA?  I thought comp picks were no longer given for losing free agents in the new CBA.  And because Atlanta signed Kenley Jansen away from the Dodgers, would that take away the pick they were going to get for losing Freeman to the Dodgers.  

[DocJJ]

In 1999 O's had 7 of the top 50 picks and ended up with only Brian Roberts out of it....

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, DocJJ said:

In 1999 O's had 7 of the top 50 picks and ended up with only Brian Roberts out of it....

I’ve been through this a few times over the years, but the O’s did just fine in that draft.   There were 51 players chosen in the first round.   Only 24 (47%) made the majors; for the O’s, it was 4 of 7 (57%}.  The 51 players produced 220.7 rWAR, or 4.33 rWAR per pick; the O’s group produced 30.8, or 4.40 per pick.   That’s not a terrible performance, especially considering they had no pick higher than 13 and their average spot among the 7 picks was 29th.  BRob was the 3rd most valuable player (by rWAR) chosen that year, at 29.5.

Now add in the fact that the O’s chose Erik Bedard (17.4 rWAR) in the 6th round that year, and Willie Harris (2.5 rWAR) in the 24th, and the draft as a whole was one of the best the O’s ever had.   

[DocJJ]

This is situation where numbers don't tell the whole story.   Yes, a significant percentage of those first rounders made the pros but only Roberts had a decent career.    A steroid enhanced Larry Bigbie and cup-of-coffee Keith Reed had no impact at the MLB level.  The O's were hoping 7 picks in the top 50 would restock the farm system and help reshape the franchise and it definitely didn't do that....

 

I did enjoy watching Roberts play.

 

Every draft has it's "lucky finds" and the O's hit the jackpot that year with Bedard.  

[Jammer7]

The historical facts about the draft are irrefutable. Frobby has done great work on that over the years. There are some factors that have changed over the years that make the science of player scouting, evaluation and development a much different world. Especially the technological advances in the past 5-10 years. There are many ways the high school players are evaluated differently now as well. Different showcases and such.

I think it more appropriate to look at who Mike Elias has drafted in that realm. We have drafted since Elias arrived one Comp A pick, Jordan Westburg, two Comp B picks, Kyle Stowers and Reed Trimble. I would also add that, soon to be too 100 prospect, Coby Mayo was a 4th rounder, fast rising power hitting OF John Rhodes 3rd, Carter Baumler 5th, Joey Ortiz 4th, Zach Watson 3rd, Darrell Hernaiz 4th and Anthony Servideo 3rd. Hudson Haskin is the one higher pick that seems riskier than the others to me. 

I’ll also add that Austin Hays and Mike Baumann we’re 3rd round picks, Drew Rom 4th and Rob Neustrom 5th of the previous front office. There are a lot of good talented players available in those picks. No guarantees with any picks, but that list is pretty darn good.

Elias and his staff know what they are best able to develop. They look for specific player profiles that they can sign and develop best. The list of players I cited above drafted in the COMP B realm, and later, is pretty impressive considering how many of them are Top 100 and just outside that realm. Many of those are in the Orioles consensus Top 30 prospect lists. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 4/6/2022 at 2:16 PM, Jammer7 said:

The historical facts about the draft are irrefutable. Frobby has done great work on that over the years. There are some factors that have changed over the years that make the science of player scouting, evaluation and development a much different world. Especially the technological advances in the past 5-10 years. There are many ways the high school players are evaluated differently now as well. Different showcases and such.

I think it more appropriate to look at who Mike Elias has drafted in that realm. We have drafted since Elias arrived one Comp A pick, Jordan Westburg, two Comp B picks, Kyle Stowers and Reed Trimble. I would also add that, soon to be too 100 prospect, Coby Mayo was a 4th rounder, fast rising power hitting OF John Rhodes 3rd, Carter Baumler 5th, Joey Ortiz 4th, Zach Watson 3rd, Darrell Hernaiz 4th and Anthony Servideo 3rd. Hudson Haskin is the one higher pick that seems riskier than the others to me. 

I’ll also add that Austin Hays and Mike Baumann we’re 3rd round picks, Drew Rom 4th and Rob Neustrom 5th of the previous front office. There are a lot of good talented players available in those picks. No guarantees with any picks, but that list is pretty darn good.

Elias and his staff know what they are best able to develop. They look for specific player profiles that they can sign and develop best. The list of players I cited above drafted in the COMP B realm, and later, is pretty impressive considering how many of them are Top 100 and just outside that realm. Many of those are in the Orioles consensus Top 30 prospect lists. 

Isn't Henderson another Comp A pick?

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Isn't Henderson another Comp A pick?

He was our second round pick in 2019, round 2, pick 1.

Teams got one comp pick per year, and in 2019, we got a Comp B. It alternates each year. In 2018, Duquette grabbed Cadyn Grenier for our Comp A pick, .