Elias prioritizes player development over winning in the majors

[owknows]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Huh?

If Grayson or Hall gets crushed over and over again at this point a couple months at AAA isn't going to turn them into TOR starters.

On the other hand Roy Halladay put up a 10.64 ERA as a 23 year old, his psyche recovered.

You are aware of course, of the idea of developing a player.

The notion of spending time mastering a level of competition before facing the next level. And yet you behave as if this concept is a complete mystery to you... and that it is incredulous that anyone would suggest there's a reason for it.

This is your standard hyperbolic nonsense, followed by a few anecdotal examples.

You know that the minors exist for a reason. You're aware that every level of competition skipped raises the possibility of adverse performance. And you're aware that some players, if pushed too hard, begin to doubt themselves and their ability. And you're aware that self-doubt can destroy a player from time to time.

Pretending you don't understand these things to bolster a point on the internet is kinda silly.

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And how would it hurt the 2022 O's to have them do their adjusting in the majors?

They going to sabotage the O's chances at the third wildcard?

Nobody said that it would hurt the Orioles’ 2022 chances.   It potentially makes the glide path for the prospect a little smoother, and doesn’t hurt the team.   That’s good enough for me.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, owknows said:

You are aware of course, of the idea of developing a player.

The notion of spending time mastering a level of competition before facing the next level. And yet you behave as if this concept is a complete mystery to you... and that it is incredulous that anyone would suggest there's a reason for it.

This is your standard hyperbolic nonsense, followed by a few anecdotal examples.

You know that the minors exist for a reason. You're aware that every level of competition skipped raises the possibility of adverse performance. And you're aware that some players, if pushed too hard, begin to doubt themselves and their ability. And you're aware that self-doubt can destroy a player from time to time.

Pretending you don't understand these things to bolster a point on the internet is kinda silly.

You are suggesting that they might get crushed over and over  to the point of damage to their psyche while accusing me of hyperbole?

That's rich.

Have you ever seen any interview with DL Hall?

That kid isn't going to doubt himself.  Same with Grayson even if he doesn't come off as cocky as Hall does.

I'm not suggesting they David Clyde some kid.  Hall is on the 40 for goodness sake.  Grayson is the top ranked pitching prospect in baseball, he pitched in AA last year.

Suggesting they don't really need to pitch in AAA isn't an extremist position. 

Worst case scenario (barring injuryof course) they struggle to the point where they have to get sent down.  Like many other pitchers before them.

 

The lengths folks go to carry water for Elias is something.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are suggesting that they might get crushed over and over  to the point of damage to their psyche while accusing me of hyperbole?

That's rich.

Have you ever seen any interview with DL Hall?

That kid isn't going to doubt himself.  Same with Grayson even if he doesn't come off as cocky as Hall does.

I'm not suggesting they David Clyde some kid.  Hall is on the 40 for goodness sake.  Grayson is the top ranked pitching prospect in baseball, he pitched in AA last year.

Suggesting they don't really need to pitch in AAA isn't an extremist position. 

Worst case scenario (barring injuryof course) they struggle to the point where they have to get sent down.  Like many other pitchers before them.

 

The lengths folks go to carry water for Elias is something.

I didn't say your position was extremist.

I said you're engaging in hyperbole in suggesting that self-doubt and significant damage to a player's progression may be a result of advancing a player too fast.

It happens...  Yo know that it happens..  But even now you suggest that "the worst thing that can happen" is that they have to be sent down.

Well... no.... that's not the worst thing that can happen.

They can come up... be overwhelmed by the the level of competition... begin doubting themselves... start over-compensating... tweaking their grip and their delivery... starting a spiral from which they don't recover.

THAT is the worst thing that can happen.

And it does happen... and YOU KNOW that it happens.

Does it happen to every overmatched player? No of course not. Will it happen to these guys? Probably not.

But it is a very real possibility. Developing confidence and mastery are every bit as important as developing physical skills and mechanics.

And there isn't a doubt in my mind that you know this.

You can argue honestly that you don't think there's a risk with these particular players for reason x,y or z... And that would be reasonable.

What you can't do honestly is answer HUH? when someone suggests that a player might be damaged by skipping a year of development.  You can do it. But your credibility suffers for it.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, owknows said:

I didn't say your position was extremist.

I said you're engaging in hyperbole in suggesting that self-doubt and significant damage to a player's progression may be a result of advancing a player too fast.

It happens...  Yo know that it happens..  But even now you suggest that "the worst thing that can happen" is that they have to be sent down.

Well... no.... that's not the worst thing that can happen.

They can come up... be overwhelmed by the the level of competition... begin doubting themselves... start over-compensating... tweaking their grip and their delivery... starting a spiral from which they don't recover.

THAT is the worst thing that can happen.

And it does happen... and YOU KNOW that it happens.

Does it happen to every overmatched player? No of course not. Will it happen to these guys? Probably not.

But it is a very real possibility. Developing confidence and mastery are every bit as important as developing physical skills and mechanics.

And there isn't a doubt in my mind that you know this.

You can argue honestly that you don't think there's a risk with these particular players for reason x,y or z... And that would be reasonable.

What you can't do honestly is answer HUH? when someone suggests that a player might be damaged by skipping a year of development.  You can do it. But your credibility suffers for it.

Huh is a fine response to the idea that a prospect like the two we are talking about are somehow going to get beat down to the point that they are traumatized.

It was a bizarre and bewildering take.  Huh was my actual (cleaned version) reaction.

Can you provide some examples of guys that this happened to?

I mean clear examples, not speculation, not combined with injuries, just guys that suddenly found themselves in a Springsteen song and couldn't get out.

 

And of course, as I've said before, they could be sent down.  It isn't as if once you promote them they are stuck in the majors.

[deward]

15 minutes ago, owknows said:

I didn't say your position was extremist.

I said you're engaging in hyperbole in suggesting that self-doubt and significant damage to a player's progression may be a result of advancing a player too fast.

It happens...  Yo know that it happens..  But even now you suggest that "the worst thing that can happen" is that they have to be sent down.

Well... no.... that's not the worst thing that can happen.

They can come up... be overwhelmed by the the level of competition... begin doubting themselves... start over-compensating... tweaking their grip and their delivery... starting a spiral from which they don't recover.

THAT is the worst thing that can happen.

And it does happen... and YOU KNOW that it happens.

Does it happen to every overmatched player? No of course not. Will it happen to these guys? Probably not.

But it is a very real possibility. Developing confidence and mastery are every bit as important as developing physical skills and mechanics.

And there isn't a doubt in my mind that you know this.

You can argue honestly that you don't think there's a risk with these particular players for reason x,y or z... And that would be reasonable.

What you can't do honestly is answer HUH? when someone suggests that a player might be damaged by skipping a year of development.  You can do it. But your credibility suffers for it.

I would argue that a pitcher who goes into a death spiral because he struggles in his first exposure to the big leagues is not likely to see much long-term success anyway.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, deward said:

I would argue that a pitcher who goes into a death spiral because he struggles in his first exposure to the big leagues is not likely to see much long-term success anyway.

The argument is not whether a pitcher will experience a death spiral in his first year of exposure to the big leagues.

The argument is whether skipping an entire year in the minors increases the likelihood of this spiral.

If it didn't...  there would be no minor leagues.

 

[deward]

Just now, owknows said:

The argument is not whether a pitcher will experience a death spiral in his first year of exposure to the big leagues.

The argument is whether skipping an entire year in the minors increases the likelihood of this spiral.

If it didn't...  there would be no minor leagues.

 

I guess I don't see why skipping AAA, failing their first big league test, then having to go back and work on it in AAA would be the cause of that death spiral either. I would still argue that if that's enough to trigger it, then they weren't long for the job anyway. If anything, I would think getting a sneak preview of what they need to work on to achieve big league success would be an advantage, not a detriment.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

The argument is not whether a pitcher will experience a death spiral in his first year of exposure to the big leagues.

The argument is whether skipping an entire year in the minors increases the likelihood of this spiral.

If it didn't...  there would be no minor leagues.

 

Minor league exist for a multitude of reasons.

I think protecting the psyches of players is pretty far down the list.

Got any examples of irrevocable psychological harm caused by skipping a level?

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are suggesting that they might get crushed over and over  to the point of damage to their psyche while accusing me of hyperbole?

That's rich.

Have you ever seen any interview with DL Hall?

That kid isn't going to doubt himself.  Same with Grayson even if he doesn't come off as cocky as Hall does.

I'm not suggesting they David Clyde some kid.  Hall is on the 40 for goodness sake.  Grayson is the top ranked pitching prospect in baseball, he pitched in AA last year.

Suggesting they don't really need to pitch in AAA isn't an extremist position. 

Worst case scenario (barring injuryof course) they struggle to the point where they have to get sent down.  Like many other pitchers before them.

 

The lengths folks go to carry water for Elias is something.

Oh, BS.   As I said, the majority of successful pitchers spend some time in AAA, and it makes the glide path a little smoother.   So let’s not act as if Elias is some outlier here.  Nobody’s saying it’s impossible for a pitcher to skip AAA and succeed.   Numerous pitchers have done it.   But what’s the compelling reason to do it here?

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Oh, BS.   As I said, the majority of successful pitchers spend some time in AAA, and it makes the glide path a little smoother.   So let’s not act as if Elias is some outlier here.  Nobody’s saying it’s impossible for a pitcher to skip AAA and succeed.   Numerous pitchers have done it.   But what’s the compelling reason to do it here?

Compelling?

Not sure what constitutes compelling.

For me.

1. I like draft picks and Grayson starting the year in Baltimore gives us a decent shot at an extra pick
2. I think it's better for the player's development.
3. I think it's the morally right thing to do for the player.
4. I think teams should attempt to be competitive, except in extreme cases.

Now is any of that compelling for anyone other than me?  No idea.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Compelling?

Not sure what constitutes compelling.

For me.

1. I like draft picks and Grayson starting the year in Baltimore gives us a decent shot at an extra pick
2. I think it's better for the player's development.
3. I think it's the morally right thing to do for the player.
4. I think teams should attempt to be competitive, except in extreme cases.

Now is any of that compelling for anyone other than me?  No idea.

I think point 2 is the fulcrum here.  If you believe giving the player the AAA ramp-up is better for his development, then that becomes the morally right thing for the player, it arguably increased his chances of getting you the pick, and it helps the team be more competitive.  

[Big Mac]

AAA using a different ball changes things, I'm not advocating that pitchers need to spend a full season there but some time getting used to that ball is probably beneficial.  If you are a contender and the pitching prospect is better than what you have in the majors then the calculus in that situation is different, we are obviously not in that situation.  If you think there is any benefit to AAA time  then it's a no-brainer.  The alternate view is merely impatience.  If we were any of the other teams in the AL East then Bradish, Hall and Rodriguez would probably be on the roster, but that's not the case here.  Bradish is a little bit of a different case but leaving him down to start is justifiable IMO. 

I'll also say I don't believe in gaming service time for pitchers, only so many bullets in those arms. 

[Aristotelian]

Here are some recent Cy Young winners and innings pitched in AAA prior to MLB debuts. Only two completely skipped AAA. Of the three with <20 innings in AAA, Porcello was the only one drafted out of high school. Would appear the O's are doing nothing unusual with Grayson and Hall although there is precedent for pitchers to skip AAA and have success.

Robbie Ray 140

Corbin Burnes 78

Bieber 48

Bauer 82 

Verlander 0

Degrom 113

Snell 107

Kluber 160

Porcello 0

Keuchel 128

Arrieta 164

Price 18

Dickey 342

 

[Going Underground]

The problem with DL. Hall is he only threw 31 2 innings last year with 7 starts. Not sure how many innings the Orioles will let him pitch this year.