Jordan Westburg 2022

[Jagwar]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mateo’s peaks and valleys were very extreme.   32 games of .435 OPS, followed by 50 games of .886, followed by 36 games of .483.   That’s nuts.   

I think the SS position will be the most interesting internal decision Elias will make this offseason. Mateo may have OPSed 646 but still put up a 2.8 WAR season. You know what you get with him. If you give Ortiz a shot, will you get his weak hitting first half or monster hitting second half? If you move Gunnar to SS, who plays 3B? And in each of those last two, what do you do with Mateo... hold on to him for a utility job or include him in a trade package?

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Mateo may have OPSed 646 but still put up a 2.8 WAR season. You know what you get with him. If you give Ortiz a shot, will you get his weak hitting first half or monster hitting second half? 

It’s tough to say what kind of offensive season to expect from either player.   One thing is virtually certain: you wouldn’t see Ortiz give away as many at bats as Mateo does.   Ortiz struck out fewer than once every six PA, Mateo more than once every four PA.   Even when Mateo was in AAA, he was striking out 25% of the time.  So you won’t watch as many at bats where you wonder what the hell the guy was thinking.  Then it’s a matter of whether Ortiz can translate better contact skills into better overall results.   I think it’s pretty likely that he can.  But that’s for Elias to ponder.  

[Jagwar]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

It’s tough to say what kind of offensive season to expect from either player.   One thing is virtually certain: you wouldn’t see Ortiz give away as many at bats as Mateo does.   Ortiz struck out fewer than once every six PA, Mateo more than once every four PA.   Even when Mateo was in AAA, he was striking out 25% of the time.  So you won’t watch as many at bats where you wonder what the hell the guy was thinking.  Then it’s a matter of whether Ortiz can translate better contact skills into better overall results.   I think it’s pretty likely that he can.  But that’s for Elias to ponder.  

I suppose I'm not yet sold on Ortiz figuring things out at the plate. His second half was really encouraging, but I'm not sure it is a large enough sample to suggest his hitting is for real. 

At the very least would you expect his defense to be as good as Mateo's?

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I suppose I'm not yet sold on Ortiz figuring things out at the plate. His second half was really encouraging, but I'm not sure it is a large enough sample to suggest his hitting is for real. 

At the very least would you expect his defense to be as good as Mateo's?

My point was solely that Ortiz doesn’t strike out nearly as often as Mateo, no matter what part of the year we are talking about.  Even in the first half when he was struggling, he only struck out about once every five at bats.   

As to overall performance, I’m not weighing Ortiz’s 73 games of 1.026 OPS any more than I’m weighing Mateo’s 50 games of .886 OPS.   They’re both just part of their overall seasons.   But Mateo’s overall .646 was pretty far below Ortiz’s overall .826.   And Ortiz finished with three straight hot months, whereas Mateo finished looking clueless.  

Personally, for me the offensive question isn’t whether Ortiz can top the .646 that Mateo put up this year.  It’s whether Mateo can top it.    

 

[Jagwar]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

My point was solely that Ortiz doesn’t strike out nearly as often as Mateo, no matter what part of the year we are talking about.  Even in the first half when he was struggling, he only struck out about once every five at bats.   

As to overall performance, I’m not weighing Ortiz’s 73 games of 1.026 OPS any more than I’m weighing Mateo’s 50 games of .886 OPS.   They’re both just part of their overall seasons.   But Mateo’s overall .646 was pretty far below Ortiz’s overall .826.   And Ortiz finished with three straight hot months, whereas Mateo finished looking clueless.  

Personally, for me the offensive question isn’t whether Ortiz can top the .646 that Mateo put up this year.  It’s whether Mateo can top it.    

 

And perhaps one obvious difference that does not make this comparison apples to apples. Mateo faced major league pitching while Ortiz faced minor league pitching. I want to be excited about Ortiz and numbers he put up, but the transition from AAA to ML does not automatically translate. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

And perhaps one obvious difference that does not make this comparison apples to apples. Mateo faced major league pitching while Ortiz faced minor league pitching. I want to be excited about Ortiz and numbers he put up, but the transition from AAA to ML does not automatically translate. 

Well yes, that is quite obvious.  I have no reason to think Ortiz would put up an .826 OPS in the majors, this year or perhaps ever.   But .646 with a 27.6% K rate is a very low bar, and there’s a lot of room between .826 and .646.   

Like I said, for me the biggest question in this equation is whether Mateo can improve his offense.   He was great for a 50-game stretch last year.  He was really awful most of the rest of the time.  Can he capture more of what made him great for those 50 games?   Can he get to the point where his cold streaks are shorter and not so deep?   The hot streak makes me believe he’s capable of better, but can he actually do it?

[Jagwar]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well yes, that is quite obvious.  I have no reason to think Ortiz would put up an .826 OPS in the majors, this year or perhaps ever.   But .646 with a 27.6% K rate is a very low bar, and there’s a lot of room between .826 and .646.   

Like I said, for me the biggest question in this equation is whether Mateo can improve his offense.   He was great for a 50-game stretch last year.  He was really awful most of the rest of the time.  Can he capture more of what made him great for those 50 games?   Can he get to the point where his cold streaks are shorter and not so deep?   The hot streak makes me believe he’s capable of better, but can he actually do it?

All of those questions are key. Here is one more. Suppose Elias manages to acquire two solid OPS bats (for 1B, 2B or OF but not at SS) for the lineup... would we be satisfied with a 2.8 WAR gold glover at SS in the 9-spot of the lineup?

[RZNJ]

Houston, a WS contentder, gave their SS job to Jeremy Pena, 24 years old entering this season, with 122 AAA AB's with a .946 OPS (in the PCL!).   He was a 3rd round pick and was ranked #72 by Baseball America after the 2021 season.     Players like Westburg and Ortiz compare favorably, IMO.   

[Tony-OH]

On 10/13/2022 at 10:50 PM, Frobby said:

Mateo’s peaks and valleys were very extreme.   32 games of .435 OPS, followed by 50 games of .886, followed by 36 games of .483.   That’s nuts.   

And I think that's the issue. His sustained slumps really hurts his value overall. I really wonder if they will give Ortiz a legitimate shot to be the everyday SS next year. Of course I think they will give Westburg a legitimate shot at playing 2B next year.

 

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Houston, a WS contentder, gave their SS job to Jeremy Pena, 24 years old entering this season, with 122 AAA AB's with a .946 OPS (in the PCL!).   He was a 3rd round pick and was ranked #72 by Baseball America after the 2021 season.     Players like Westburg and Ortiz compare favorably, IMO.   

Good find..

[wildcard]

54 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

And I think that's the issue. His sustained slumps really hurts his value overall. I really wonder if they will give Ortiz a legitimate shot to be the everyday SS next year. Of course I think they will give Westburg a legitimate shot at playing 2B next year.

 

I look at the first three months as Mateo learning the league and making adjustments to his swing.   Then he had two good months.  Then he slumped.  I guess you could call the peaks and valleys but mostly is an inexperience player learning and then getting tired at the end.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

I look at the first three months as Mateo learning the league and making adjustments to his swing.   Then he had two good months.  Then he slumped.  I guess you could call the peaks and valleys but mostly is an inexperience player learning and then getting tired at the end.

That’s a pretty optimistic take.  His approach was pretty terrible before and after his hot streak, and I don’t think getting tired had much to do with it.  Put it this way, was his defense worse the last 5-6 weeks of the season?   

[OriolesMagic83]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

I look at the first three months as Mateo learning the league and making adjustments to his swing.   Then he had two good months.  Then he slumped.  I guess you could call the peaks and valleys but mostly is an inexperience player learning and then getting tired at the end.

Mateo is 28.  He's pretty much who he is going to be.  Just like Jones could never lay off the low and away slider.  I think Elias is in love with Mateo's defense or at least it seems that way by Elias comments.  I'm predicting Mateo starts the year at SS.  

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Mateo is 28.  He's pretty much who he is going to be. 

He’s actually not 28, and won’t be until June 23, 2023.   He has 770 PA in the major leagues.  I think there’s a reasonable chance — by no means a certainty — that Mateo can improve somewhat from here as he gains more experience.  I’m not talking about some quantum leap, just moderate improvement that would make it more palatable to tolerate his offense while enjoying his stellar defense.   

[Frobby]

Let’s get back on topic - Westburg.  He certainly surprised me with his power numbers this year - 27 homers, 39 doubles, .231 ISO vs. 15 homers, 27 doubles, .194 ISO in 2021.   I wonder how well that will carry over to the majors.  

Westburg actually had more PA at Norfolk this year than any other player.  I think he’s about as ready for the majors as he’s going to be.