Heston Kjerstad 2022

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Fiver6565 said:

If you are comparing two players at the same level, then sure, age is an issue.  But its not an issue to me if a guy comes up a year older than others (ie if Kjerstad is 25 instead of 24 or even 23 when he debuts).  Most of these players are not going to be here past their arb years anyway.  So who cares if they are 29 at that point, or 31?  They'll be moving on and getting a deal somewhere else at that point anyway, in all likelihood.  If anything them coming up at 24 means we get their prime years; someone like Gunnar might be done here just as he's hitting his age 28 season.....

If you compared the careers of players that debuted at various ages I'm reasonably sure that you would find that players that debut earlier tend to have more successful careers.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

6 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

If you are comparing two players at the same level, then sure, age is an issue.  But its not an issue to me if a guy comes up a year older than others (ie if Kjerstad is 25 instead of 24 or even 23 when he debuts).  Most of these players are not going to be here past their arb years anyway.  So who cares if they are 29 at that point, or 31?  They'll be moving on and getting a deal somewhere else at that point anyway, in all likelihood.  If anything them coming up at 24 means we get their prime years; someone like Gunnar might be done here just as he's hitting his age 28 season.....

I think the elite players are usually the only players worth locking up.  I'm thinking Elias will be taking a page from Oakland and Tampa and trading a lot of players after their 1st and 2nd arbitration years.

[DirtyBird]

On 10/14/2022 at 9:14 AM, Tony-OH said:

I'd like that grade back after watching him this year. Remember, that was a grade based off his reports prior to all of his issues. I was basing that off what I saw in videos in college, now I think he's probably a 40/45 runner, but I will time him a few time in videos and get a real value soon.

How does his inside the park HR time today stack up. Looked like low 14 sec to me.

[Paul in Virginia]

 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 10/14/2022 at 9:37 AM, Tony-OH said:

We're kinda talking this is no two different threads, but since this is his thread, I'll try and keep my comments here.

As I said in the other thread his 55 FV on his speed was based on the video I saw of him in college and I'll be honest, I'm a little surprised I went that high. Now, I've had a lot of time to watch him this year and there is no way I think he could effectively play CF unless he has some kind of phenomenal jump and route numbers that I don't know about. 

Again, I haven't timed him yet but he looks slower to me than Stowers who the Orioles gave 58 CF starts to despite his having 43 percentile sprint speed at the major league level upon arrival.

So I guess what I'm saying is don't pay a ton of attention to where the Orioles play their prospects because they have really taken some kind of mad hatter approach to developing position players by rarely only playing them at the position they most likely will play at the major league level. 

I'm not a fan of this approach personally unless you are looking at a player to provide versatility at the major league level. I could see Westburg becoming a right-handed super utility so it makes sense for him to play all over, but I would have preferred that Henderson had played mostly 3B so he could focus on getting better.

If they think Kjerstad is a RF, play him RF. If they think he's a 1B, start playing him there so he gets experience. 

Lastly, the Orioles provide the positions where they want their prospects played in the AFL but they will give additional positions in case there is a need. This might just be a case where they needed a CF and Kjerstad had it down as an alternative position. It's worth noting that he never played one game in CF in the minors or college.

 

He could be gradually regaining his speed and power after a lengthy layoff due to his illness.  This time last year, he still hadn't played on the field for the O's.  Anyway, it's exciting for me that he's regaining his speed and power.  Hopefully his severe Covid will not limit his upside as a player, as I thought was likely.

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you compared the careers of players that debuted at various ages I'm reasonably sure that you would find that players that debut earlier tend to have more successful careers.

 

That is true, because the best players typically race through the minors and get to the majors quickly (e.g. Manny Machado, Gunnar Henderson).   Statisticians would call that a selection bias--if you get to the big leagues at a young age, it's probably because you're a phenom. 

That doesn't mean that getting to the majors at a young age has a causal impact on your subsequent development.  Rushing David Clyde or Harry Chappas to the majors when they were teenagers didn't help them, while a player who gets to the majors at age 25 because he was injured and missed two seasons still has a chance to be a great player--if he has it in him to be a great player.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

He could be gradually regaining his speed and power after a lengthy layoff due to his illness.  This time last year, he still hadn't played on the field for the O's.  Anyway, it's exciting for me that he's regaining his speed and power.  Hopefully his severe Covid will not limit his upside as a player, as I thought was likely.

I'm pretty sure we still don't know if his condition had anything to do with Covid.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

That is true, because the best players typically race through the minors and get to the majors quickly (e.g. Manny Machado, Gunnar Henderson).   Statisticians would call that a selection bias--if you get to the big leagues at a young age, it's probably because you're a phenom. 

That doesn't mean that getting to the majors at a young age has a causal impact on your subsequent development.  Rushing David Clyde or Harry Chappas to the majors when they were teenagers didn't help them, while a player who gets to the majors at age 25 because he was injured and missed two seasons still has a chance to be a great player--if he has it in him to be a great player.

Players who make it later also tend to start declining at a younger age.

I'm not saying he can't be a great player.

I'm saying age matters.

And it does.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm pretty sure we still don't know if his condition had anything to do with Covid.

I thought it was reported that he had viral myocarditis.  Maybe it was just assumed since he had covid and myocarditis, it was from covid.

[Jagwar]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I thought it was reported that he had viral myocarditis.  Maybe it was just assumed since he had covid and myocarditis, it was from covid.

It's possible that he had both and they were completely unrelated, yes?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I thought it was reported that he had viral myocarditis.  Maybe it was just assumed since he had covid and myocarditis, it was from covid.

Folks have been saying it's Covid related since day 1 and I'd rather not just assume that.  We don't know the man's medical history.  The cause isn't relevant.

[Jagwar]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Folks have been saying it's Covid related since day 1 and I'd rather not just assume that.  We don't know the man's medical history.  The cause isn't relevant.

This. He was out, and now he's back. I'm thankful that he is healthy and can pursue what he wants to pursue. 

[HelenaEngineer]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Players who make it later also tend to start declining at a younger age.

I'm not saying he can't be a great player.

I'm saying age matters.

And it does.

 

It matters in context of why the debut is late, and Kjerstad is clearly an outlier. He was a college draftee who lost more than a full season due a non-baseball related illness, which is extremely rare if not unprecedented. If the reason for a late debut is a slow path through the minors or baseball related injuries, that would be one thing and is something that there is a history for with many examples.  Assuming he plays well next year and advances as you might expect a 2021 or 2022 first round pick to do, the fact he will debut 1-2 years later than he would have will be absolutely meaningless in terms of evaluating his likely career success.

Age likely matters a lot more to Kjerstad's career earnings than it does to the Orioles, who should have a player in his prime for the 6 years they have team control. Those lost seasons are going to cost him a lot more in his next contract than they will cost the Orioles with respect to performance.

[DirtyBird]

21 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I think Bowie was going to be his maximum starting point next year and it looks like he will start there.   With a .673 OPS at Aberdeen there was a chance he might return there but I think it was less than 50/50.    I don't think the AFL means a whole lot but you could certainly make the argument that the pitching is about High A level.   I think they would have started him at Bowie with or without the AFL performance but there was never a chance he would have skipped Bowie to start next year.

There was no chance he was going back to Aberdeen after AFL, full healthy offseason and spring training.

[MurphDogg]

Keith Law was not too impressed with what he saw from Kjerstad in the AFL. Not sure when he saw him, since he has been hitting pretty much every day, but in the article he said that he saw every team at least three times.

• Several scouts told me that Baltimore’s Heston Kjerstad looked good in the first week of play, but I saw more of the same rust that I saw from him during the regular season. He was behind good velocity and had some trouble picking up off-speed stuff, even from right-handers. I’m inclined to give him a pass on the entire 2022 season, as he missed all of 2020 after the pandemic began and all of 2021 due to myocarditis, going about 27 months between game at-bats. I’m still rooting for him but also concerned that he had such trouble with average major-league stuff every time I saw him.

I definitely agree that he gets a full pass on this entire season, hopefully he hits the ground running in Spring Training and forces his way up to Norfolk from Bowie by midseason.