Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[DocJJ]

Honest question.

 

For me, I'd take Johnson and use the $1.5 M on the competitive balance picks and 2nd rounder.

I have no idea if this is actually a possible scenario.  I have no idea who's salary demands are going to be what.   I just thought I'd pose the hypothetical question and see what people think....

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DocJJ said:

Honest question.

 

For me, I'd take Johnson and use the $1.5 M on the competitive balance picks and 2nd rounder.

I have no idea if this is actually a possible scenario.  I have no idea who's salary demands are going to be what.   I just thought I'd pose the hypothetical question and see what people think....

I'd take the BPA at full slot over a lesser player for less money.

In this particular draft.

I don't have the data needed to say if Jones is that person.

Everything I've seen about this draft has indicated that it isn't a good year to go underslot at 1-1.

[DocJJ]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd take the BPA at full slot over a lesser player for less money.

In this particular draft.

I don't have the data needed to say if Jones is that person.

Everything I've seen about this draft has indicated that it isn't a good year to go underslot at 1-1.

I have heard the opposite.   Mayo and Law both think the spread from 1 through 5 isn't that big and you can get nearly equivalent level talent, just at different positions.   They both said this would be a good year to think about taking someone with lesser monetary demands and loading up on your next picks.

[DocJJ]

Rats... I used the wrong form of "who's"- it should have said "whose"...   apologies to the grammar police.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I have heard the opposite.   Mayo and Law both think the spread from 1 through 5 isn't that big and you can get nearly equivalent level talent, just at different positions.   They both said this would be a good year to think about taking someone with lesser monetary demands and loading up on your next picks.

I've been hearing that there is a lack of good targets down the line in the draft to spend the savings on.

Also, Mets.

[DocJJ]

As far as will there be First round type talent available with our competitive balance picks and 2nd rounder?  I don't know... 

 

If the answer is 'no', then I guess the savings won't matter.  But I have to believe there will be some studly HS guys thinking about college offers who could be plucked away for enough money.   I never heard of Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler when they were taken with some saved up money- my guess is there will be a few Coby Mayo types this year as well....

 

[btdart20]

I came across this article this morning:  Examining Orioles General Manager Mike Elias’ draft history - AZ Snake Pit

Here's the reason the author believes that Elias will go with the under/over-slot approach:

Elias’ history with top five picks in the draft would suggest if there isn’t a clear-cut player they have in mind (Rutschmann, Tucker, Whitley), that Baltimore will elect to take the portfolio approach and go for savings with the first overall selection. I have no idea how the Orioles see the top of the draft board, what they’ll sign for, and if they think there are a larger pool of candidates to go over-slot with the 33rd and 42nd picks.

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

As far as will there be First round type talent available with our competitive balance picks and 2nd rounder?  I don't know... 

 

If the answer is 'no', then I guess the savings won't matter.  But I have to believe there will be some studly HS guys thinking about college offers who could be plucked away for enough money.   I never heard of Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler when they were taken with some saved up money- my guess is there will be a few Coby Mayo types this year as well....

 

We're still a while away from finding out if Mayo and Baumler were inspired choices or money that could have been better spent elsewhere.

[geschinger]

Personally I think there is some separation between Jones and the others and therefore he'd be my pick.  But if they are considered close, maximize the use of the draft pool capital.  

If hypothetically on a scale of 1 to 100 their analysis is that Jones is 100 and Johnson is a 99 and going 1.5m over slot with a competetive balance pick allows the team to get someone who they rate as a 70 instead of an expected 55 if they were limited to slot then it's a no brainer.  The 99 player and the 70 player is a better use of draft pool resources than using the same for a 100 player and the 50 player. 

[DocJJ]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We're still a while away from finding out if Mayo and Baumler were inspired choices or money that could have been better spent elsewhere.

Very true.   But I was merely pointing out that every year there are guys I never heard of who had "first round level talent and ability".   I'd never heard of Mountcastle when he was picked.  Obviously some will succeed and others won't ever see the MLB...

[Frobby]

If the O’s have a clear preference for Jones, I don’t think $1.5 mm is enough to justify going underslot.   Do they have a clear preference for Jones?   I have no idea.   

[RZNJ]

46 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've been hearing that there is a lack of good targets down the line in the draft to spend the savings on.

Also, Mets.

Where have you been hearing that?   Legitimate question.  Not meant to be snarky.   I've been reading the same sources as DocJJ.   There will be HS pitching and the injured college pitchers that will be good overslot targets with the compensation picks and maybe even the 2nd and 3rd round depending on the money available.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Where have you been hearing that?   Legitimate question.  Not meant to be snarky.   I've been reading the same sources as DocJJ.   There will be HS pitching and the injured college pitchers that will be good overslot targets with the compensation picks and maybe even the 2nd and 3rd round depending on the money available.

Here, a couple of days ago.

There are always some targets, that's a given.  But will there be targets that require a larger than BPA savings at 1-1?  Elias went BPA in 2019 and still had the money to give Gunnar a little extra sumthin sumthin at 2-1.

Also as I've said before Cohen seems eager to try and blow up the draft this year with the Mets.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Here, a couple of days ago.

There are always some targets, that's a given.  But will there be targets that require a larger than BPA savings at 1-1?  Elias went BPA in 2019 and still had the money to give Gunnar a little extra sumthin sumthin at 2-1.

Also as I've said before Cohen seems eager to try and blow up the draft this year with the Mets.

Cohen can do whatever he wants but how many picks besides his two first rounders does he have between 33 and 67 (the Orioles have 3 there)?

One HS pitcher (Andrew can'tspellit) already withdrew from the draft to attend college.   Others will post a number and tell teams if they match it they'll sign.  Otherwise going to college.  Some HS position players do the same.   There are an inordinate amount of top college pitches either rehabbing or just back from TJ surgery that would be overslot targets as well.    There has to be at least 5 of those guys if not 10.  Some will be gone in the first round and that doesn't even include Kumar.     Some of those guys might go be willing to go back to school.   And then there are your sophomore eligible types like Jud Fabian (turned down $2M to go back to school) was last year, not to mention our own John Rhodes, who have some leverage.

[btdart20]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If the O’s have a clear preference for Jones, I don’t think $1.5 mm is enough to justify going underslot.   Do they have a clear preference for Jones?   I have no idea.   

Agreed.  In another thread I mentioned that it would essentially buy us a fifth $2m draft signing (assuming pick 33 is slot) if we maxed everything else.  The odds of that guy being available at pick 81 is slim.  But having trouble finding it since we’ve started another thread on a similar topic.