Voth/Harvey

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Harvey might be the new Rudy Seanez.  Almost 20 years in the majors, but 566 innings, or about 33 a season.  Although I don't know if Harvey ever manages to stay healthy for an entire season; Seanez did a few times in his 30s.

Really good comp there. Seanez had a hell of a fastball but was certainly an IL guy way to much. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

No coaching or analytics department can fix his slow bat. Last night's awful at bat with the bases loaded showed his limitations as a hitter. He ends up getting sawed off on an inner third 93 MPH fastball that he knew was coming because he really just can't get to it effectively.

Now, the rest of your point is spot on. The Orioles have shown the ability to get better performance out of guys, particularly pitchers due to their coaching and analytics department. Besides Voth, Perez, Baker, Krehbiel and even Watkins were all taken of the scrap heap and become valuable pitchers this year for the Orioles. 

I give the Elias/Sig, Holt and the analytics department for being able to make pitchers better if they can command their stuff.

True, there are physical limitations that some of these guys probably can't overcome, McKenna might be that guy.  But even then, if he knows he can't get around on a 93 MPH fastball, wouldn't it be better for him to change his approach to become an opposite field hitter?  It would be a way to perhaps mask his physical limitations.  If his bat is slow, why try to pull anything at all?  

But to your point, I'm assuming it's easier (yet still really hard, none of this is actually easy) to tease out better performances of a physically limited pitcher such as Watkins than a physically limited batter like McKenna.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Nah, if Elias hops out of the DeLorean in '89 and sees that the 27 year old Milligan has struck out 68 times and walked 88 times, he promptly signs him to an extension that takes him through his 33-34 seasons.  Even at an "old 32" in 94 with the Expos his on base percentage was over .100 points higher than his batting average.  Throw in some conditioning and whatever other secret sauce Elias brings with him, I think Milligan is still a wildly productive player into his early to mid 30s.  

Safe bet about the Davis deal and not knowing that Finley would become the player he became, but I was thinking it'd be un-Elias due to giving up Schilling and Harnisch.  I flip flop on who the most surprising player from that deal was between Schilling and Finley.  You could make a good case for both of them depending on the day but I'm assuming Finley had some "help."

This is an interesting conversation because Milligan was such an underrated player for the times because walks and OPS weren't as valued as they are now. From 1988 to 1992, Milligan OPS+ was 130 and he put up 13.5 oWAR (11 oWAR the 4 seasons in BAL). 

Now Randy was not a good defensive player and his mediocre average and home run totals, particularly in the beginning of the steroid era, made him look like a guy who was fairly replaceable. He was also pretty slow on the base paths and his RS%, SB% and XBT% were all well below average.

So he was a complicated player because you had a guy who got on base, but was slow once he got there, who had some pop, but not great pop, and was below average defensive first baseman who really needed to DH. 

Now to Drungo's point, Milligan wasn't eligible to be a free agent until his 31st birthday because of his relatively late start to his career. I'm going to agree with Drungo that Elias would not have tried to sign a 27-year old Milligan to a longterm contract because he didn't have the skill sets that age well. He certainly would not have resigned a 31-year old Milligan.

I do think he was a little underrated because in the 80's all you saw on the TV screen were HR, RBI, and AVG and we didn't have the internet to have more data on players. But sayin that, I also think he was a flawwed player that would not have been valued very highly by Elias because he values versatility in his DH spot and players with good defensive value. 

But I certainly would take a late 80's, early 90s Randy Milligan over Jesus Aguilar.

 

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

True, there are physical limitations that some of these guys probably can't overcome, McKenna might be that guy.  But even then, if he knows he can't get around on a 93 MPH fastball, wouldn't it be better for him to change his approach to become an opposite field hitter?  It would be a way to perhaps mask his physical limitations.  If his bat is slow, why try to pull anything at all?  

But to your point, I'm assuming it's easier (yet still really hard, none of this is actually easy) to tease out better performances of a physically limited pitcher such as Watkins than a physically limited batter like McKenna.

 

I truly believe it is easier to adjust pitchers with all of the analytics, cameras' and systems then it is to teach hitters. That's why we are seeing such a switch to a pitching dominant sport right now and why we're seeing spyder tack and shifts being taken away. 

Hitters still need the eye hand coordination to hit what is coming, even if they know it's coming, but if you don't have the physical ability to do so, no analytics is going to help. On the pitching side, it's all about the ability to uses the systems and analytics to improve your stuff, but most importantly, it's the ability to command that new stuff.

[sportsfan8703]

If healthy, I’d still rather would have Bautista, Khreibel, Tate, Baker, and Voth over Harvey.  

[DrungoHazewood]

33 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Nah, if Elias hops out of the DeLorean in '89 and sees that the 27 year old Milligan has struck out 68 times and walked 88 times, he promptly signs him to an extension that takes him through his 33-34 seasons.  Even at an "old 32" in 94 with the Expos his on base percentage was over .100 points higher than his batting average.  Throw in some conditioning and whatever other secret sauce Elias brings with him, I think Milligan is still a wildly productive player into his early to mid 30s.  

Safe bet about the Davis deal and not knowing that Finley would become the player he became, but I was thinking it'd be un-Elias due to giving up Schilling and Harnisch.  I flip flop on who the most surprising player from that deal was between Schilling and Finley.  You could make a good case for both of them depending on the day but I'm assuming Finley had some "help."

I wouldn't be so sure Schilling didn't, too.  But who knows.

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is an interesting conversation because Milligan was such an underrated player for the times because walks and OPS weren't as valued as they are now. From 1988 to 1993, Milligan OPS+ was 130 and he put up 13.5 oWAR (11 oWAR the 4 seasons in BAL). 

Now Randy was not a good defensive player and his mediocre average and home run totals, particularly in the beginning of the steroid era, made him look like a guy who was fairly replaceable. He was also pretty slow on the base paths and his RS%, SB% and XBT% were all well below average.

So he was a complicated player because you had a guy who got on base, but was slow once he got there, who had some pop, but not great pop, and was below average defensive first baseman who really needed to DH. 

Now to Drungo's point, Milligan wasn't eligible to be a free agent until his 31st birthday because of his relatively late start to his career. I'm going to agree with Drungo that Elias would not have tried to sign a 27-year old Milligan to a longterm contract because he didn't have the skill sets that age well. He certainly would not have resigned a 31-year old Milligan.

I do think he was a little underrated because in the 80's all you saw on the TV screen were HR, RBI, and AVG and we didn't have the internet to have more data on players. But sayin that, I also think he was a flawwed player that would not have been valued very highly by Elias because he values versatility in his DH spot and players with good defensive value. 

But I certainly would take a late 80's, early 90s Randy Milligan over Jesus Aguilar.

Something that almost certainly would be different today is Milligan's promotion schedule and evaluation.  In 1984, at the age of 22, Milligan had an .877 OPS in AA.  In 1984 the Mets sent him back to AA, where he hit .310 with an .870 OPS.  In 1985 the Mets sent him back to AA, where he had a .900 OPS and, finally, by the end of the year he was promoted to AAA.  In 1987, at the age of 25, he spent the whole year in AAA and OPS'd 1.033.  He was rewarded with 2 PAs in the majors, and being traded to the Pirates as part of the Mackey Sasser deal. The Mets simply didn't think he was a major league prospect or major league player.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Something that almost certainly would be different today is Milligan's promotion schedule and evaluation.  In 1984, at the age of 22, Milligan had an .877 OPS in AA.  In 1984 the Mets sent him back to AA, where he hit .310 with an .870 OPS.  In 1985 the Mets sent him back to AA, where he had a .900 OPS and, finally, by the end of the year he was promoted to AAA.  In 1987, at the age of 25, he spent the whole year in AAA and OPS'd 1.033.  He was rewarded with 2 PAs in the majors, and being traded to the Pirates as part of the Mackey Sasser deal. The Mets simply didn't think he was a major league prospect or major league player.

He was also blocked by Keith Hernandez and Darryl Strawberry.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Something that almost certainly would be different today is Milligan's promotion schedule and evaluation.  In 1984, at the age of 22, Milligan had an .877 OPS in AA.  In 1984 the Mets sent him back to AA, where he hit .310 with an .870 OPS.  In 1985 the Mets sent him back to AA, where he had a .900 OPS and, finally, by the end of the year he was promoted to AAA.  In 1987, at the age of 25, he spent the whole year in AAA and OPS'd 1.033.  He was rewarded with 2 PAs in the majors, and being traded to the Pirates as part of the Mackey Sasser deal. The Mets simply didn't think he was a major league prospect or major league player.

The Mets had Keith Hernandez at First and didn't have access to the DH.

They had an excuse not to play him.

Why didn't anyone trade for him?

[Morgan423]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Pretty sure it was posted on here a few weeks ago that Voth was impressed with the Orioles analytics department and figuring out the best method of attack for his pitching.  IIRC, he said that the Nationals didn't have anything like it. 

Interesting to know that Hunter Harvey is going through this same process in reverse.  Now that he's trying to stay healthy and reach his potential, the tools he had access to the last few years are gone. 

[Ripken]

Harvey is (shockingly) healthy for the moment, and can still hit 100... but, man, is that fastball straight.  It doesn't move at all.  No bueno.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Mets had Keith Hernandez at First and didn't have access to the DH.

They had an excuse not to play him.

Why didn't anyone trade for him?

Because everyone knows that minor league performances don't mean anything and the scouts didn't like a stocky first baseman with 15 homer power who won't even expand the strike zone when he needs a GWRBI.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

He was also blocked by Keith Hernandez and Darryl Strawberry.  

1) Hernandez was 34 and almost done by 1988.

2) Might have been nice to have someone on the team who wasn't into nose candy.

[DrungoHazewood]

The Mets also had Dave Magadan, who was part of that now-extinct species of good-glove, 4-homer first baseman who could sometimes hit .300.  The world of 1987 obviously thought more of him than Milligan.

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

1) Hernandez was 34 and almost done by 1988.

2) Might have been nice to have someone on the team who wasn't into nose candy.

1.  Hernandez was an All-Star in '87 and still quite good.  Yes, he fell off a cliff in '88 but vetronosity, team leader, etc.  Two years removed from the '86 team, they still thought they could capture some of that '86 Magic.  Let's also not forget that they went 7 games with the Dodgers in the '88 NLCS

2.  Probably, but Strawberry was Strawberry and he was 30-30 in '87 and lead the league in homers in '88.  Even if the Mets (they probably did) know he was on coke, he was still producing and all the coke stuff didn't surface in the public eye until he went to LA.  

Hindsight is 20-20, Milligan certainly had a case to play but with the way baseball was looked at in the 80s, it's not a surprise he didn't get a shot for the Mets when Hernandez and Strawberry were there.