Mateo's Bottom of the Eighth (Infield in 2023 talk)

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Magic fairy dust!  

Full seasons of Henderson and Rutschman, and no Odor hardly counts a fairy dust.

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Urías certainly isn’t playing 3B with Henderson and Mateo on the team.   His value probably is diminished at 2B.  What is your plan?

Play him at second.  I'm not sure it really diminishes his value.  In what context?

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Play him at second.  I'm not sure it really diminishes his value.  In what context?

In the context that a lot of his value is in his defense at 3B.  You just assume he’ll have the same value defensively at 2B?     

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Play him at second.  I'm not sure it really diminishes his value.  In what context?

His defensive metrics are much better at 3B than 2B. 

[baltfan]

Mateo's value is likely at a high water mark.  If he starts next season and begins to struggle, there are a ton of guys in the minors that will quickly be given a chance.  This kills his value.  I would try to put him in a package this winter to get an impact arm or bat.  Of course, he alone will not get you anyone that will impact the franchise.  

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Bleier took it with him.

Damn him!

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Full seasons of Henderson and Rutschman, and no Odor hardly counts a fairy dust.

It also doesn’t close the talent gap enough.  

[Sports Guy]

Outside of injuries, there should be no scenario where we enter the season starting Mateo and Urias.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

In the context that a lot of his value is in his defense at 3B.  You just assume he’ll have the same value defensively at 2B?     

Do you mean in a trade to other teams?  Or for what he's actually producing on the field?

I think the first is largely irrelevant as it's not like other teams don't know he can play 3rd.

And in the context of what he produces individually, I don't really care.  I don't care about putting individuals in positions which optimize their defensive value.  I care about optimizing the defensive value of the team, and so I want the best team configuration I can get defensively.  And from what I've seen so far, 3b Henderson, SS Mateo, and 2b Urias is that configuration.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

His defensive metrics are much better at 3B than 2B. 

And the team would be much better with him at 2b than 3b.  That's what I care about.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Mateo's value is likely at a high water mark.  If he starts next season and begins to struggle, there are a ton of guys in the minors that will quickly be given a chance.  This kills his value.  I would try to put him in a package this winter to get an impact arm or bat.  Of course, he alone will not get you anyone that will impact the franchise.  

I am not as sure as you about this being Mateo’s high water mark but the part about him getting off to a terrible start next year and being replaced seems very possible.  Almost likely.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Outside of injuries, there should be no scenario where we enter the season starting Mateo and Urias.

How about the scenario where we trade Westburg and/or Ortiz for some pitching?

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Do you mean in a trade to other teams?  Or for what he's actually producing on the field?

I think the first is largely irrelevant as it's not like other teams don't know he can play 3rd.

And in the context of what he produces individually, I don't really care.  I don't care about putting individuals in positions which optimize their defensive value.  I care about optimizing the defensive value of the team, and so I want the best team configuration I can get defensively.  And from what I've seen so far, 3b Henderson, SS Mateo, and 2b Urias is that configuration.

I think you need to optimize your team.  You don’t do that by playing a guy who derives most of his value from defense, out of position, while you force prospects who are likely better offensively and defensively at 2B wait, because you’re scared they won’t be as good as a .700 OPS hitter who plays average defense at 2B.  You trade that player to a team which values him at 3B and get something of value for him.   The idea of creating a talent pipeline wasn’t to stuff old rags in it as soon as it started to flow.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How about the scenario where we trade Westburg and/or Ortiz for some pitching?

Possible but I would bet against that this year.  

[Pickles]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I am not as sure as you about this being Mateo’s high water mark but the part about him getting off to a terrible start next year and being replaced seems very possible.  Almost likely.

Then so be it.  I'm not sure I'd say "likely" but it is definitely possible.  You know what else is possible?  He hits better next year, puts up a 4+ WAR season, and has significant more trade value in 13 months.