If the Orioles are to be contenders in 2023…

[tabletop]

46 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Any interest in Cody Bellinger? Still only 27 with some big years and playoff experience. Had two bad years but huge upside. Low risk high reward candidate who can play center, corner OF, 1B, or DH. What type of contract will he get?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/dodgers-to-non-tender-cody-bellinger.html

Sure, if they think the know what's wrong with him and can help get back close to 2017/2018 form he would be a great addition. I highly doubt he's coming to Baltimore though. Other teams will have interest in him and be able to offer more money, guaranteed playing time, etc..

[Camden Yards]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

As a short leash bench/4th OF, sure

That is what I was thinking. Is he better than McKenna? He has a lot more upside that McKenna. Our right field short porch and change of scenery might help him. One year deal with a team option for year 2 is what I would be looking at. 

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

And you could sign those 3 things and still have a ton of reliance on rookies and very young players.

No doubt

[tabletop]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Let me be clear here: I’m playing devil’s advocate and nitpicking on the word “glaring.”

Grayson is obviously a big factor.  If he’s what we hope he can be, that dramatically strengthens our rotation over 2021.   Hall’s a big factor too, though I’m less confident of how he’ll pan out as a starter.   Could be a big asset, or could warrant a change of roles to the BP.  In an oprimistic but not crazy scenario, those two guys are enough to dramatically change the numbers you cited.  

So, I could argue that getting another good pitcher is the safest course, but the need isn’t “glaring.”   

Personally, I would like to sign the best pitcher we possibly can sign, whoever we decide that is.   And maybe a second guy too.  

 

Rodriguez, Hall, Bradish, Wells, Kremer, and Voth. Unless I am forgetting someone those are the current candidates to start next season in the rotation. The only two who have ever thrown over 130ip in a season in their careers are Kremer and Voth and Voth's was back in 2016. Where is that group going to cover enough innings over a full season to keep the bullpen fresh? I know Lyles wasn't anything special but at least you could rely on him to get you some innings and give the bullpen a breather. The current group they have has never proven they can handle a full season in the majors.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Rodriguez, Hall, Bradish, Wells, Kremer, and Voth. Unless I am forgetting someone those are the current candidates to start next season in the rotation. The only two who have ever thrown over 130ip in a season in their careers are Kremer and Voth and Voth's was back in 2016. Where is that group going to cover enough innings over a full season to keep the bullpen fresh? I know Lyles wasn't anything special but at least you could rely on him to get you some innings and give the bullpen a breather. The current group they have has never proven they can handle a full season in the majors.

The operative word here is “proven.”   Doesn’t mean they won’t in 2023.   It’s funny that Lyles is now viewed as some perennial innings eater.   He’d never thrown more than 141.1 innings before 2021.

[tabletop]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The operative word here is “proven.”   Doesn’t mean they won’t in 2023.   It’s funny that Lyles is now viewed as some perennial innings eater.   He’d never thrown more than 141.1 innings before 2021.

How is saying "at least you could rely on him to get you some innings" the same as saying he's a "perennial innings eater"? He threw 180ip in 2021 before signing with the O's, was brought in to be a mentor who would hopefully be able to eat innings, and he did that. Nobody else on the roster did that last year. Nobody else on the roster has ever done that in their careers. Either way, I don't really care about Lyles I was just mentioning his innings last year because they'll need to be replaced. I'm not saying that all of them can't throw 150ip next season. I asked how that group is going to cover enough innings to not wear down the bullpen. If the answer is to just hope they all do something they've never done before that's fine. I don't think it makes sense to hope that a bunch of guys who have never done something before all come together and do it next year though. It's certainly possible they could sign three proven starters and they all get injured in spring training and never pitch an inning. It's certainly possible some of the current starters throw 150+ip next season. It just doesn't seem likely is all and that's the main reason I think that they need to sign/trade for at least one, preferably two, and in a perfect world three starters.

[pdiddy]

9 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Is it fair for the organization to want to build on all of these prospects accepting that might mean 2023 is another growing pains year and 2024 is the goal for contention?

Yes - at least for the first half.  See what is real and what isn’t. Hopefully they spend $ in the off-season. The opportunity will be there to spend prospects at the deadline.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

13 hours ago, IPlayGM said:

And to me the great unknown is payroll. I think that really factors into this scenario. If we truly knew what the payroll outlook would be, we would be in a better place to make conjectures about this.

 The Angelos family drama isn't helping. Plus if the team does get sold over the winter, that is likely going to tie Elias' hands when it comes to adding substantially to the payroll. I don't think a sale is going to happen this offseason, but it's coming soon (or at least that's what I think).  

Also on Elias' own timeline, I don't think he's ready to go all in yet on contending. I  believe Elias when he says he wants to add talent and payroll, but not to the degree where it's World Series or bust. I don't see any younger players getting bumped from playing time for veteran talent at this time.  

That is subject to change by next season's trade deadline if the Orioles look like a legit pennant contender. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, tabletop said:

Rodriguez, Hall, Bradish, Wells, Kremer, and Voth. Unless I am forgetting someone those are the current candidates to start next season in the rotation. The only two who have ever thrown over 130ip in a season in their careers are Kremer and Voth and Voth's was back in 2016. Where is that group going to cover enough innings over a full season to keep the bullpen fresh? I know Lyles wasn't anything special but at least you could rely on him to get you some innings and give the bullpen a breather. The current group they have has never proven they can handle a full season in the majors.

So Lyles had 13 quality starts if you are using the 6 innings-<3 runs stat. Another 5 starts where he pitched into the 6th and left without giving up 3 runs. In only 5 of his 32 starts did he allow 5 runs or more. I think that’s pretty valuable. 
 

I’m hoping that we can get a better version of Lyles. But, I honestly think we can use 2 guys if we are serious about contending. I only currently consider Kremer and Bradish guys who are definitely in. Yeah, I know Bradish’s numbers weren’t great but I think his second half was where it needs to be. I know they are planning to pencil in Gray-Rod into a slot as they should. He’d be my 5th starter out of the gate. I’d move Hall (longman role or starting at AAA to get some consistent control and length to his starts), Voth , and Wells to the pen. I’d trade Tate and Krehbiel (Not sure if Joey has value but I just don’t think he’s a long term. Akin also moves into a better role). 
 

I had previously advocated for Senga but he’d have to be the second guy as he’s only pitched 148 innings this year and 118 the prior season.  He did pitch 180 in 2019 so perhaps he can be counted on for an uptick of 20 innings or so.

Im hoping we somehow end up with Rodon but just don’t see the Orioles going 130-150 million over 5 years that it’s going to take to sign him. He replace Lyles innings wise while upping the quality. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by Roll Tide

[OriolesMagic83]

I think for the O's rebuild and return to the playoffs to work, most of the value has to come from pre arbitration and arbitration players.  The O's can sign a free agent or two or three, but can't afford to build a team around free agents like the Mets and Dodgers.  One of those free agents has to be a starting pitcher, imo.  The O's need a horse who can anchor a rotation and put the O's into the 6th, 7th, or even 8th inning w/ a chance to win.  Someone the O's can expect to win if they get 3 or 4 runs.  And someone who can go head to head w/ another team's ace in a game 1 of a playoff.