Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

He had a massive BABIP outlier during the first half of 2021.

It was a fluke and it passed. That's it.

I agree that expecting his 2021 performance to re-emerge is unrealistic. Some bounce back is reasonable.  Not to that extent.   

I like the fact that Frazier can play OF.   I don’t want a guy with a likely sub-.700 OPS and and sub-.100 ISO in the OF on any kind of regular basis.   If he starts more than 25 games in the OF, that’s trouble.  
 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Why do the odds seem long?   I don’t think they’re that long.   It’s just that I question why we need him with all the other alternatives we have at 2B and OF.

Do me this just smells of a bounce back trade at the deadline signing. I just don’t understand why we are doing it at this point.

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He wants to be surrounded by a bunch of ivy leaguers and I question if any of them understand baseball stat analysis and if they have ever seen a baseball game.

 

You make a lot of good points but when you say stuff like this you sound like a buffoon.

[Aristotelian]

The only way this makes sense is if the plan is to make some trades. Frazier gives us the flexibility to move any of Hays, Santander, Urias, Mateo, and even Mountcastle off the MLB roster, replace most of their production, and allow the prospects to develop according to their timeline. 

The addition of Frazier to me indicates Urias to 2B is ruled out. So Urias would seem to be at the top of the list to be traded, although it could be Mateo. Just have to see where it goes. It does seem like a slight overpay for a guy they like for some reason (similar to Lyles last year).

 

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tell Sig.  You must be way ahead of him.

You're assuming, without any evidence, that they signed him because they believe they can reliably replicate an obvious outlier and turn him into an elite hitter at 31 years old just because he got hot for a couple of months two seasons ago.

It's much more likely that they signed him because they believe he can be a roughly replacement level hitter with decent defense until they finally decide Westburg or Ortiz is ready.

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree that expecting his 2021 performance to re-emerge is unrealistic. Some bounce back is reasonable.  Not to that extent.   

I like the fact that Frazier can play OF.   I don’t want a guy with a likely sub-.700 OPS and and sub-.100 ISO in the OF on any kind of regular basis.   If he starts more than 25 games in the OF, that’s trouble.  
 

I think he is just an early decliner, but I agree that he will likely be at least a bit better than he was last year.

My fear is that, even if he doesn't bounce back, they will continue playing him because "he turns the double play well" or some other silly reason like they did with Odor.

[tabletop]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So what I am reading is that many fans and sports writers think Elias and Co are a bunch of fools.   I look at it another way.

I think most on the OH will think that the O's are Analytics oriented.   So lets say that Sig did his analysis and thinks he knows why Frazier had a 799 OPS in 2021 and a 612 OPS in 2022.  And Elias, Sig, Hyde and Fuller think they can fix him.

In that case his 305/368/411/779  may be able to be duplicated and is worth 8M.  It probably makes him a #2 hitter  hitting in front of run producers Adley, Gunnar, Santander etc.  

I think in general fans and media are too hung up on Frazier being a 2nd baseman.  I read he plays LF and RF well.  That conflicts with the idea that he is slow.  I don't know what to think about that.

But what are the odds that Hays come out of ST healthy.   I would put it at 50/50.   That's been his history.  He is 100% healthy and performing well about half the time.

In 2021 Frazier hit 317/378/412/790 vs righthanded pitching.  Hays career average vs righties is 252/306/421/727 vs right-handed pitching.   Hays career average vs lefty is 268/317/460/777.   Sounds like there might be a platoon there.

All this happening might not be likely but it might be more likely than thinking Elias and Co are fools. 

Based on WAR if he just does what he did last year he will be worth $8m. 

[tabletop]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So what I am reading is that many fans and sports writers think Elias and Co are a bunch of fools.   I look at it another way.

I think most on the OH will think that the O's are Analytics oriented.   So lets say that Sig did his analysis and thinks he knows why Frazier had a 799 OPS in 2021 and a 612 OPS in 2022.  And Elias, Sig, Hyde and Fuller think they can fix him.

In that case his 305/368/411/779  may be able to be duplicated and is worth 8M.  It probably makes him a #2 hitter  hitting in front of run producers Adley, Gunnar, Santander etc.  

I think in general fans and media are too hung up on Frazier being a 2nd baseman.  I read he plays LF and RF well.  That conflicts with the idea that he is slow.  I don't know what to think about that.

But what are the odds that Hays come out of ST healthy.   I would put it at 50/50.   That's been his history.  He is 100% healthy and performing well about half the time.

In 2021 Frazier hit 317/378/412/790 vs righthanded pitching.  Hays career average vs righties is 252/306/421/727 vs right-handed pitching.   Hays career average vs lefty is 268/317/460/777.   Sounds like there might be a platoon there.

All this happening might not be likely but it might be more likely than thinking Elias and Co are fools. 

Based on WAR if he just does what he did last year he will be worth $8m. 

[Orioles0615]

10 hours ago, Slight Upward Arc said:

That Szymborski piece is spot on. 

Those of us who have been less patient have been told the past couple years to wait til the kids arrive, it’s going to turn around. 

The kids are here, with more knocking down the door. And now we have to watch Adam Frazier instead. 

It doesn't match up with some magical timeline Elias has in his head. Then again no matter what happens this season, my guess is they do the same crap next offseason as well

[Ripken]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The only way this makes sense is if the plan is to make some trades. Frazier gives us the flexibility to move any of Hays, Santander, Urias, Mateo, and even Mountcastle off the MLB roster, replace most of their production, and allow the prospects to develop according to their timeline. 

The addition of Frazier to me indicates Urias to 2B is ruled out. So Urias would seem to be at the top of the list to be traded, although it could be Mateo. Just have to see where it goes. It does seem like a slight overpay for a guy they like for some reason (similar to Lyles last year).

I appreciate everyone looking for a bright side and discussing the trade idea... but we can/could have made those trades without signing Frazier.  We did not need a middle infielder at all, even if one was traded, and he's not a good OF.  All Elias added here was a LH bat, which we needed, but this one isn't good and nothing really indicates he could be.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I think he is just an early decliner, but I agree that he will likely be at least a bit better than he was last year.

My fear is that, even if he doesn't bounce back, they will continue playing him because "he turns the double play well" or some other silly reason like they did with Odor.

I think those are very legitimate concerns.  He should be better than Odor almost no matter what (and a completely different style of player), but that doesn’t mean he’ll be good enough to warrant playing him over the younger guys.   

When the O’s make a move that on the surface doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, I generally assume that there’s something they know or think, that I’m unaware of.  I don’t assume it’s because they can’t read or understand the publicly available information that any fan can read and understand.   We’ll see about this one.  
 

 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You make a lot of good points but when you say stuff like this you sound like a buffoon.

Well I have read and seen the job descriptions, what they are looking for in candidates and stuff like that.

I have a basis for what I’m saying. 
 

 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Based on WAR if he just does what he did last year he will be worth $8m. 

Any GM playing 8M for 1 WAR should be fired.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think those are very legitimate concerns.  He should be better than Odor almost no matter what (and a completely different style of player), but that doesn’t mean he’ll be good enough to warrant playing him over the younger guys.   

When the O’s make a move that on the surface doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, I generally assume that there’s something they know or think, that I’m unaware of.  I don’t assume it’s because they can’t read or understand the publicly available information that any fan can read and understand.   We’ll see about this one.  
 

 

It also occurs to me that one benefit that he provides no matter how he plays is that he gives the team an excuse to keep Westburg and Ortiz at Norfolk for at least a month or two so they can't earn a full year of service time.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I have read and seen the job descriptions, what they are looking for in candidates and stuff like that.

I have a basis for what I’m saying. 
 

 

Ok, but you know that these guys are smart and that statistical analysis is their bread and butter.   I'm not saying they can't make stupid decisions or make mistakes.  But to say that they "don't understand baseball stat analysis" is just silly.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok, but you know that these guys are smart and that statistical analysis is their bread and butter.   I'm not saying they can't make stupid decisions or make mistakes.  But to say that they "don't understand baseball stat analysis" is just silly.

To be clear, I’m talking about the peons in the baseball ops side..not Sig, Elias, etc…(although this signing makes me wonder wtf they are looking at)

And those kids may know stats but there is a difference between understanding stats and math and understanding baseball stats, what they mean and how you apply them.