Suggested Deal w/Marlins

[HakunaSakata]

15 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Re Arraez - I think you're undervaluing not getting out as a team value-add.  It doesn't show up quite as well on the fantasy pages, but IRL not getting out means more PAs for everyone on the team.  This comp is going to sound extravagant (and it is for many reasons), but a scaled down version of Tony Gwynn.  Similar BB%, Babip, OBP.

I'm just not sure how well that batting profiles plays specifically at the DH position in this day and age. I think the floor I would tolerate at the DH position is someone like Alejandro Kirk, who does everything Arraez does, but also hits for at least some semblance of power (14 homeruns versus Arraez's 8 homeruns last season). My point is in the modern era you shouldn't have to sacrifice counting stats for hits and OBP.  They should go hand and hand. 

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

If we're willing to trade players like Westberg, Cowser, etc. we can compete with any of those offers. We have to offer quality to get quality and we have to stop viewing mediocre players like Mateo and Urias through orange colored glasses and expecting them to land us any significant pieces. 

Mediocre?  Mateo won the fielding bible award for defense at SS. Urias won the GG at 3B. Mateo led the AL in steals. Urias popped 16 HR after missing some time being hurt. Mateo was worth 3.4 WAR. Urias was worth 3.6 WAR. Arreaz was worth 4.4 WAR. 
 

My post pointed out that there value is not high now, but I think they are both on the verge of putting it together offensively and their value being high at the deadline, or next offseason. 
 

If these guys are batting 7th and 9th in your lineup, then your lineup is good and your defense is great.

Also, kudos to the Marlins for the Rojas-Amaya deal. Lopez- Arreaz would be big for them too. If they can trade another SP and Wendle for Casas, that’s a when as well. 

Overall, my point is I’d rather do stop gap measures for the Rotation, or go with what we have, all while letting All of our infielders continue to build value. 
 

Just win baby, and get to the deadline and Means. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Ripken said:

We can't keep them all, Mike.  Gonna have to move some prospects eventually...

Yes, hopefully we can move Westburg to 1B. Norby to LF. Then shop Mateo and Urias next offseason. 

[btdart20]

53 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm just not sure how well that batting profiles plays specifically at the DH position in this day and age. I think the floor I would tolerate at the DH position is someone like Alejandro Kirk, who does everything Arraez does, but also hits for at least some semblance of power (14 homeruns versus Arraez's 8 homeruns last season). My point is in the modern era you shouldn't have to sacrifice counting stats for hits and OBP.  They should go hand and hand. 

If we're comparing Arraez to Kirk, then I completely agree that Kirk is better as a DH.  And even with the modern era goal of counting stats + OBP.

But in the context of what the O's would have to give up in order to compete with that quality countered with MIA's goal of receiving an MLB-level bat?  Arraez has a better bat than Urias/Mateo/Hays.  I doubt the O's are trading Mullins (for a player not named Alcantara/Perez at MIA).  Mounty?  Santander?  How does that impact the O's 2023 offense?  If MIA is open to receiving non-MLB talent, then the conversation starts to get real.  But that's not their stated goal.  (They did state 'near ready' as well, but any definition we put out there is speculation of what that means to MIA.)

[OriolesMagic83]

18 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Mediocre?  Mateo won the fielding bible award for defense at SS. Urias won the GG at 3B. Mateo led the AL in steals. Urias popped 16 HR after missing some time being hurt. Mateo was worth 3.4 WAR. Urias was worth 3.6 WAR. Arreaz was worth 4.4 WAR. 
 

My post pointed out that there value is not high now, but I think they are both on the verge of putting it together offensively and their value being high at the deadline, or next offseason. 
 

If these guys are batting 7th and 9th in your lineup, then your lineup is good and your defense is great.

Also, kudos to the Marlins for the Rojas-Amaya deal. Lopez- Arreaz would be big for them too. If they can trade another SP and Wendle for Casas, that’s a when as well. 

Overall, my point is I’d rather do stop gap measures for the Rotation, or go with what we have, all while letting All of our infielders continue to build value. 
 

Just win baby, and get to the deadline and Means. 

I agree.  I think the O's will have a lot of players near peak value at the trade deadline and should have replacements for Hays, Santander, Mateo, Urias, and maybe even Mountcastle.  I would like the O's to upgrade the rotation, but trading our MLB position players now would leave big holes in our lineup.

[HakunaSakata]

24 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Mediocre?  Mateo won the fielding bible award for defense at SS. Urias won the GG at 3B. Mateo led the AL in steals. Urias popped 16 HR after missing some time being hurt. Mateo was worth 3.4 WAR. Urias was worth 3.6 WAR. Arreaz was worth 4.4 WAR. 
 

My post pointed out that there value is not high now, but I think they are both on the verge of putting it together offensively and their value being high at the deadline, or next offseason. 
 

If these guys are batting 7th and 9th in your lineup, then your lineup is good and your defense is great.

Also, kudos to the Marlins for the Rojas-Amaya deal. Lopez- Arreaz would be big for them too. If they can trade another SP and Wendle for Casas, that’s a when as well. 

Overall, my point is I’d rather do stop gap measures for the Rotation, or go with what we have, all while letting All of our infielders continue to build value. 
 

Just win baby, and get to the deadline and Means. 

Teams don't covet soon to be 29 year old players (Urias) just on the verge of putting it together. Mateo batted .221 last season and the primary offensive category that he contributes in (SBs) is about to become devalued with the increase in base size and pickoff limitations. I'm not saying they're worthless, but they are significantly flawed players and expecting either of them to potentially land us a top of the rotation starting pitcher is ludicrous. 

[HakunaSakata]

9 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

If we're comparing Arraez to Kirk, then I completely agree that Kirk is better as a DH.  And even with the modern era goal of counting stats + OBP.

But in the context of what the O's would have to give up in order to compete with that quality countered with MIA's goal of receiving an MLB-level bat?  Arraez has a better bat than Urias/Mateo/Hays.  I doubt the O's are trading Mullins (for a player not named Alcantara/Perez at MIA).  Mounty?  Santander?  How does that impact the O's 2023 offense?  If MIA is open to receiving non-MLB talent, then the conversation starts to get real.  But that's not their stated goal.  (They did state 'near ready' as well, but any definition we put out there is speculation of what that means to MIA.)

If I were the Marlins I would value some of our higher level prospects more than a 25 year old Luis Arraez who potentially peaked last season. I think what they're apparently focusing on is misguided based on the where the team is in terms of possible contention. That's really the point I was trying to make. 

[sportsfan8703]

12 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

If I were the Marlins I would value some of our higher level prospects more than a 25 year old Luis Arraez who potentially peaked last season. I think what they're apparently focusing on is misguided based on the where the team is in terms of possible contention. That's really the point I was trying to make. 

The Marlins seem to be targeting pretty high level players as is. The already got Amaya that they can plug in for the next 5+ years. It’s looking like they’ll bring in the reigning AL batting champ for 3 years. Then they’re asking for Casas for whatever pitcher Boston wanted. We just can’t touch those deals or we shouldn’t. 
 

Time to move onto Lauer or Wacha. 

[Number5]

38 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

the primary offensive category that he contributes in (SBs) is about to become devalued with the increase in base size and pickoff limitations.

I couldn't disagree with this statement more.  

[Just Regular]

14 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I couldn't disagree with this statement more.  

I agree.    @HakunaSakata, I don't know how it'll play out but I think the rules changes help Mateo relative to other ballplayers.      Mountcastle might go from 2 steals to 10, but the tease (and the fun "action" MLB wants) will be if guys like Mateo and Mullins can go from 30 to 75.

They have to keep stealing efficiently and not hurt themselves with the wear and tear, but Game Theory wise I don't blame Elias if he is putting some premium on his basestealers until we see if MLB overcooked the adjustment.     Its a lot of why between the two I am more keen for Ramon Urias to find a match.      His baseball life is already pretty far along to have to give another proof of quality in a reserve role.     Urias and Mateo had similar years in overall quality, but are very different on foot speed.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

My point is in the modern era you shouldn't have to sacrifice counting stats for hits and OBP.  They should go hand and hand. 

Hits are a counting stat, so I’m not sure what you’re saying.  I think you’re staying that a DH should have some power in addition to producing a good OBP.

So far as I’m concerned, there are stats like wOBA and wRC+ that are designed to weight OBP and power appropriately and reflect the best overall hitter in one number.  Last year, the average DH had a wOBA of .320 and wRC+ of 107.   Arraez was at .350 and 131.   I’d take that from my DH in a heartbeat.  The O’s by the way were at .315 and 106; the Marlins were at .312 and 103.   Only 5 teams beat Arraez’s numbers.  

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

I couldn't disagree with this statement more.  

Devalued in the senses that every player who steals any bases at all is about to get an up tick in stolen bases. Which means that just to maintain his current value a player like Mateo will have to steal 10 to 15 more bases this season. If he doesn’t then he could repeat his 2022 season and actually have less value.

I won’t cite numbers, but there are articles out there about how those  specific rule changes effected SBs in MiLB last season. While it’s not a perfect apples to apples prediction of how the changes will effect the MLB (I.e., MiLB teams are more concerned with player development then winning), there are plenty of takeaways, which should apply to both. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Hits are a counting stat, so I’m not sure what you’re saying.  I think you’re staying that a DH should have some power in addition to producing a good OBP.

So far as I’m concerned, there are stats like wOBA and wRC+ that are designed to weight OBP and power appropriately and reflect the best overall hitter in one number.  Last year, the average DH had a wOBA of .320 and wRC+ of 107.   Arraez was at .350 and 131.   I’d take that from my DH in a heartbeat.  The O’s by the way were at .315 and 106; the Marlins were at .312 and 103.   Only 5 teams beat Arraez’s numbers.  

I’m saying that a DH only player should be an above average contributor in more categories than hits and OBP. I can’t think of a single DH in the last 20 years or so who routinely hit less than 10 HRs and drove in less than 50 RBIs who was considered an all star caliber contributor. In fact, other than Ichiro I can’t think of a single player, and Ichiro was batting .350 + is his hey day not in the low .300’s like Arraez.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Devalued in the senses that every player who steals any bases at all is about to get an up tick in stolen bases. Which means that just to maintain his current value a player like Mateo will have to steal 10 to 15 more bases this season. If he doesn’t then he could repeat his 2022 season and actually have less value.

I won’t cite numbers, but there are articles out there about how those  specific rule changes effected SBs in MiLB last season. While it’s not a perfect apples to apples prediction of how the changes will effect the MLB (I.e., MiLB teams are more concerned with player development then winning), there are plenty of takeaways, which should apply to both. 

Did totals go up that much in the minors?

 

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Devalued in the senses that every player who steals any bases at all is about to get an up tick in stolen bases. Which means that just to maintain his current value a player like Mateo will have to steal 10 to 15 more bases this season. If he doesn’t then he could repeat his 2022 season and actually have less value.

I won’t cite numbers, but there are articles out there about how those  specific rule changes effected SBs in MiLB last season. While it’s not a perfect apples to apples prediction of how the changes will effect the MLB (I.e., MiLB teams are more concerned with player development then winning), there are plenty of takeaways, which should apply to both. 

For it to devalue Mateo, it would have to help everyone else more than it helps Mateo, which makes no sense at all.  The players most helped will almost surely be the better base-stealers.  Guys that weren't really stolen base threats still aren't.  Those extra inches won't help them.  Those inches are big to guys like Mateo, though, as is the new pick-off rule.  Again, non-base-stealers aren't going to be getting bigger leads.  They just aren't.  As I said, I couldn't disagree more than I do with your take on this.  180 degrees apart.