Suggested Deal w/Marlins

[RZNJ]

The Marlins have what teams want.  They can sit back and wait for the best offer.  I think they have leverage here, which is why I don’t think the Orioles will wind up getting Lopez, which is the pitcher on the Marlins who makes the most sense as the #1-#3 starter Elias talked about.

Elias won’t part with Mullins.   That is the best fit for the Marlins.   If Segura plays SS, they might have some interest in Urias for 3B.   
 

Santander + for Lopez?

Edited January 13, 2023 by RZNJ

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Number5 said:

 I also believe that Baltimore has been active in the trade market, but are also holding off for top dollar on their trade chips.  I have little to no doubt that the two teams have talked.  

I don't believe this.  

I'd like to know why you're so confident that they've talked.  @Sports Guyis coming up on almost 3 years of a Mullins to Marlins trade that just doesn't seem to wanna happen.  

Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if they have talked and could work out a trade, but as I've noted several times before, the only time Elias really gets aggressive on trading is in-season at the deadline.  I'd love to be wrong and see him pull off a trade that's not revolving around "cash considerations" or other spare parts and do something of significance but history tells us he doesn't operate that way in the cold months.

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

He shouldn't have to. Cowser + a lower level prospect for one of their SPs should be enough. 

If the Orioles think highly of Cowser that will be hard to do. Position player with less risk. 

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The Marlins have what teams want.  They can sit back and wait for the best offer.  I think they have leverage here, which is why I don’t think the Orioles will wind up getting Lopez, which is the pitcher on the Marlins who makes the most sense as the #1-#3 starter Elias talked about.

Elias won’t part with Mullins.   That is the best fit for the Marlins.   If Segura plays SS, they might have some interest in Urias for 3B.   
 

Santander + for Lopez?

I agree. They do have the leverage. 
 

Issue I see with dealing Santander is timing. They deal him before FA they can replace him. Harder to do that now. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't believe this.  

I'd like to know why you're so confident that they've talked.  @Sports Guyis coming up on almost 3 years of a Mullins to Marlins trade that just doesn't seem to wanna happen.  

Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if they have talked and could work out a trade, but as I've noted several times before, the only time Elias really gets aggressive on trading is in-season at the deadline.  I'd love to be wrong and see him pull off a trade that's not revolving around "cash considerations" or other spare parts and do something of significance but history tells us he doesn't operate that way in the cold months.

First of all, they were always in sell mode.  Things have changed a bit.  Also, when we’re Buddy and Iglesias traded?   Wasn’t the deadline.

[HakunaSakata]

21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Urias just won a Gold Glove.  Mateo probably should have.  Urias had a 3.6 rWAR season, Mateo had a 3.4 rWAR season.

Explain how they don't have any trade value?  

Do the Marlin's seem like they're a defensive minded player away from contention? Urias and Mateo are also old by baseball standards so there's really no reason to believe they have much more room for growth either. I'm not saying they're worthless players, I'm just saying that I can't imagine that two older players who basically came out of no where last season to have solid season largely driven by their defense really have much trade appeal outside of our organization. 

[HakunaSakata]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They aren’t leading a trade for a top guy but they absolutely can be part of a package for a top guy. 
 

They are young, cheap and play premium positions at varying levels of above average. 

Respectfully disagree. Cowser + should be enough everyone except for Lopez and Alcantara. It might even be enough for Lopez, depending on how concerned the Marlins are about his second half collapse last season. 

[Number5]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If Segura plays SS, they might have some interest in Urias for 3B.   

Seems to me that I read that they've said that they plan on playing Segura at third.

[LTO's]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't believe this.  

I'd like to know why you're so confident that they've talked.  @Sports Guyis coming up on almost 3 years of a Mullins to Marlins trade that just doesn't seem to wanna happen.  

Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if they have talked and could work out a trade, but as I've noted several times before, the only time Elias really gets aggressive on trading is in-season at the deadline.  I'd love to be wrong and see him pull off a trade that's not revolving around "cash considerations" or other spare parts and do something of significance but history tells us he doesn't operate that way in the cold months.

I know people don't think he breaks any news but Roch literally wrote in his blog from yesterday that they have talked. If they really wanted Mateo or Urias I'm sure this would be done already. They probably (correctly) think they can hold out for better hitters than either of those two. If for some reason, no one else bites, it could happen. 

 

The Marlins are loaded with starters in the majors and minors, and the Orioles have been in contact with them. There’s motivation to stay in touch. Miami's player asking price might not be a match, though trading Miguel Rojas could help.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I agree. They do have the leverage. 
 

Issue I see with dealing Santander is timing. They deal him before FA they can replace him. Harder to do that now. 

Who is more valuable to the Orioles?   A good starter who can pitch 180 innings or a RF/DH who can hit 30 homers.  We can argue but I think that’s a no brainer for me.   I think that makes the rotation and bullpen stronger at the same time.  Stowers to RF, Cowser at Norfolk.  Revolving door at DH.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Respectfully disagree. Cowser + should be enough everyone except for Lopez and Alcantara. It might even be enough for Lopez, depending on how concerned the Marlins are about his second half collapse last season. 

Second half collapse?  That’s funny.

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

What's significant?  They aren't worthless.

Worthless no, but not much more than a secondary piece in a trade. I also don't see how either would have any appeal to the Marlins. Kim Ng has already said that she anticipates the prospect they just traded Rojas for to be in the mix at some point this season and she's hinted that they might move Chisolm back to SS. Wendle and/or Berti are good enough fill ins for a month or so until Amaya is ready. 

[HakunaSakata]

43 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Wouldn't it be great if someone came up with a stat that measures relative player value?  Maybe weigh the player's overall value to some type of constant such as, say, replacement player value?

I'm going to ignore your sarcasm and point out that WAR doesn't take into account age and repeatability. Both of which devalue Mateo and Ortiz significantly since they're older and basically came out of nowhere last season and have never even sniffed the same level of success before. Not to mention the fact that the Marlins don't need them. Segura's penciled in at 3B and there's talk of of them considering moving Chisolm back to SS until the player they just traded for his ready. 

[Number5]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

Kim Ng has already said that she anticipates the prospect they just traded Rojas for to be in the mix at some point this season and she's hinted that they might move Chisolm back to SS. Wendle and/or Berti are good enough fill ins for a month or so until Amaya is ready. 

Of course she said that.  LOL.  I guess she convince one person, anyway.  Me?  I'll continue to think MIA has obvious needs and wants to trade from their logjam at SP for help at SS and/or OF.

[Number5]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm going to ignore your sarcasm and point out that WAR doesn't take into account age and repeatability. Both of which devalue Mateo and Ortiz significantly since they're older and basically came out of nowhere last season and have never even sniffed the same level of success before. Not to mention the fact that the Marlins don't need them. Segura's penciled in at 3B and there's talk of of them considering moving Chisolm back to SS until the player they just traded for his ready. 

Look, if you want to believe MIA is all set and ready to go into the season as is, I'm not going to argue with you.