Umpire Scorecard Thread

[ShoelesJoe]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As shown on the chart, that's about an average game for the ump.   Nothing uniquely awful about his performance, just the average amount of umpire awfulness.

An umpire can have an average games by auditor standards and still have an enormous impact on the final score. For example, both Boston batters who were gifted bad calls (#1 and #3) wound up reaching base and scoring in a game decided by two runs. I wish some site would calculate a “butterfly effect” for an umpire’s missed calls to determine the true influence they have on the game’s outcome. 

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

An umpire can have an average games by auditor standards and still have an enormous impact on the final score. For example, both Boston batters who were gifted bad calls (#1 and #3) wound up reaching base and scoring in a game decided by two runs. I wish some site would calculate a “butterfly effect” for an umpire’s missed calls to determine the true influence they have on the game’s outcome. 

I think that would be interesting, but whatever actually happens after a bad umpire call doesn't change how good or bad a game the umpire called.   

[Morgan423]

46 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

An umpire can have an average games by auditor standards and still have an enormous impact on the final score. For example, both Boston batters who were gifted bad calls (#1 and #3) wound up reaching base and scoring in a game decided by two runs. I wish some site would calculate a “butterfly effect” for an umpire’s missed calls to determine the true influence they have on the game’s outcome. 

I completely agree. 

Approaches like Umpire Scorecards' that calculate the average impact of blown calls aren't really the same as measuring the actual impacts of blown calls.  The end result of those things can be wildly different.  It'd be nice to get a real report of the total impact an umpire caused to each team each game.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

I completely agree. 

Approaches like Umpire Scorecards' that calculate the average impact of blown calls aren't really the same as measuring the actual impacts of blown calls.  The end result of those things can be wildly different.  It'd be nice to get a real report of the total impact an umpire caused to each team each game.  

I don’t think you really can do it, except on pitches that would have ended the at bat if called correctly, and even then you really can’t know.   Let’s say a batter is in a 1-1 count, and a strike is called a ball, so it’s 2-1 instead of 1-2.   Next pitch, the batter hits a homer.  Was it due to the more favorable count?  Who knows?

[ShoelesJoe]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think you really can do it, except on pitches that would have ended the at bat if called correctly, and even then you really can’t know.   Let’s say a batter is in a 1-1 count, and a strike is called a ball, so it’s 2-1 instead of 1-2.   Next pitch, the batter hits a homer.  Was it due to the more favorable count?  Who knows?

I don't think you can do it 100% of the time, but there are still obvious and undeniable occasions where an umpire screw up has a measurable impact on the outcome of a game beyond the valuation of that one call. Our May 20 game against the Cardinals, for example. With two men on base Dean Kremer threw an 0-2 fastball right down the middle thigh high. Instead of strike three Laz Diaz called it ball one. Two pitches later the guy hit a 3-run HR. Final score was 6-3 St. Louis. It is a statistical certainty that if Laz Diaz had made the correct call that batter would not have hit that 3-run HR. And yet Umpire Auditor has that game as "only" +1.13 runs for STL even though that one call led to three runs scoring. I understand how the calculations are made, but they clearly understate the influence bad calls can have on a game. When that influence is this obvious it needs to be taken into account. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I don't think you can do it 100% of the time, but there are still obvious and undeniable occasions where an umpire screw up has a measurable impact on the outcome of a game beyond the valuation of that one call. Our May 20 game against the Cardinals, for example. With two men on base Dean Kremer threw an 0-2 fastball right down the middle thigh high. Instead of strike three Laz Diaz called it ball one. Two pitches later the guy hit a 3-run HR. Final score was 6-3 St. Louis. It is a statistical certainty that if Laz Diaz had made the correct call that batter would not have hit that 3-run HR. And yet Umpire Auditor has that game as "only" +1.13 runs for STL even though that one call led to three runs scoring. I understand how the calculations are made, but they clearly understate the influence bad calls can have on a game. When that influence is this obvious it needs to be taken into account. 

I completely agree that the UmpScorecard/UmpireAuditot methodology doesn’t accurately measure the actual effect of bad calls on a game.  I just don’t think it really can be accurately measured.   And, at the end of the day, the pitcher and defense have the opportunity to minimize or maximize the impact of the bad call.

I think it would be interesting to know whether pitchers perform worse following a bad call than they would following a good call, and does it vary by pitcher over a large sample.  In other words, pitcher A walks a batter on a correct 3-2 pitch call.  Pitcher B walks a batter on an incorrect 3-2 pitch call.  Is it more likely that the next hitter will get a hit if the preceding call was correct or incorrect?   Or, is it irrelevant?  I’m guessing that bad calls rattle some pitchers more than others.  

[Frobby]

We are always pointing it out when the umpire calls a terrible game, so I thought  Quinn Wolcott should get his kudos for the excellent job he did yesterday.  Only three missed calls all day, and two of those were on close pitches.  Maybe the best-called game I’ve seen all year.  
 

 

[Can_of_corn]

 

[MCO'sFan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

What do you think his Overall Accuracy % will be? Less than 90%?

[Aristotelian]

43 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

What do you think his Overall Accuracy % will be? Less than 90%?

I would love to see a cumulative inches missed stat. His accuracy % was definitely bad but he was calling some crazy low and outside pitches for strikes. 

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

What do you think his Overall Accuracy % will be? Less than 90%?

Sadly, when it comes to pitches that are not in the strike zone, the average umpire is only correct 88% of the time.  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I would love to see a cumulative inches missed stat. His accuracy % was definitely bad but he was calling some crazy low and outside pitches for strikes. 

That would be very interesting.  

[Big Al]

This is so frustrating when ABS is available. 

[eddie83]

 

 

No way. 

[ShoelesJoe]

This is the kind of game where Umpire Scorecards really drops the ball. You have an umpire who clearly can't see pitches below the zone calling a game where one of the pitchers is a sinkerballer who lives below the zone. Once he calls that outrageous strike on Henderson in the first inning every Oriole batter knows they have to swing at anything down that doesn't bounce in front of the plate. The umpire's incompetence goes beyond a handful of terrible calls to changing the entire approach for every batter on a particular team.