Analyzing Grayson's First Start in the Bigs

[nvpacchi]

another good thread on Twitter about Grayson's debut.

 

[nvpacchi]

55 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

The two sliders that Semien didn't bite on to start the game had 36 and 35 VBreak and 4 and 5 HBreak. The one that struck out Duran had 42 VBreak and 16 HBreak. They were so different that I wondered whether they were two different pitches that were conflated.

Looking after the game, it looks like it was probably the same pitch but with a lot of variance. Of the 11 sliders with lower VBreak, 29-36, 8 were taken for balls, 1 foul, and 2 put in play softly. Of the 8 with 37+ VBreak, there were 3 swinging strikes, 2 fouls, and 3 balls.

nice stuff thanks! so maybe his desired slider movement is more v break and less horizontal?  As long as it doesnt mirror the curve too much,  I guess. just want his next start to get here to get more sample size! 

[byrdz]

I’m sure I’m reading the data wrong but does he need to be throwing his curveball more?

Btw, think the “blobs” are referred to as heatmaps. 

[nvpacchi]

10 hours ago, byrdz said:

I’m sure I’m reading the data wrong but does he need to be throwing his curveball more?

Btw, think the “blobs” are referred to as heatmaps. 

Tough to tell when he threw 5 curves, but it seemed like a good pitch when watching the game, especially if it can become something he relies on to get a called strike early in the count.

[btdart20]

It is interesting that his changeup was commonly thought of as his best pitch.  Then seeing how little it was used and the lack of movement is a concern.  Does anyone know what changed that caused it to regress?  Different grip?  Pronation?  Arm slot?  Related to his injury?

[btdart20]

12 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

The two sliders that Semien didn't bite on to start the game had 36 and 35 VBreak and 4 and 5 HBreak. The one that struck out Duran had 42 VBreak and 16 HBreak. They were so different that I wondered whether they were two different pitches that were conflated.

Looking after the game, it looks like it was probably the same pitch but with a lot of variance. Of the 11 sliders with lower VBreak, 29-36, 8 were taken for balls, 1 foul, and 2 put in play softly. Of the 8 with 37+ VBreak, there were 3 swinging strikes, 2 fouls, and 3 balls.

Was there a difference in velo for the sliders to Semien vs. to Duran?  Could be the traditional hard slider vs. the sweeper.

[nvpacchi]

36 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Was there a difference in velo for the sliders to Semien vs. to Duran?  Could be the traditional hard slider vs. the sweeper.

his sliders to Duran were 82.3 and 81 and his first sliders of the game to Semien were both 83.4 and 82.8.  The strikeout slider to Duran is probably where he wants to get it consistently I'm guessing? As hat one had the most horizontal movement and vertical drop

[Sports Guy]

12 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

another good thread on Twitter about Grayson's debut.

 

Was just about to come here to post this.

GRod didn’t even have his best stuff the other day, at least in terms of command (although the fastball command was good I thought) and Texas wasn’t able to do much and has a lot of swing and misses.

He pretty much went toe to toe with the best pitcher in the sport, on the road, in his ML debut and he isn’t even close to where he needs to be.  That’s impressive stuff.

[nvpacchi]

55 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

It is interesting that his changeup was commonly thought of as his best pitch.  Then seeing how little it was used and the lack of movement is a concern.  Does anyone know what changed that caused it to regress?  Different grip?  Pronation?  Arm slot?  Related to his injury?

back to Eli Ben Porat, who demonstrated the movement synergy between his 4seam and change.  I'm not sure what makes a changeup good or elite, but it makes sense to me that it should look like a fastball for as long as possible on its trajectory, thus making the velo difference incredibly important.

His changeup had a bit more drop in spring training than it did in Texas, so the shape of the change-up will be interesting to monitor in his next start.  Given that he only threw on slider to lefties (but all five curves were to lefties), having the change be a swing and miss to lefties seems vital.

 

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Was just about to come here to post this.

GRod didn’t even have his best stuff the other day, at least in terms of command (although the fastball command was good I thought) and Texas wasn’t able to do much and has a lot of swing and misses.

He pretty much went toe to toe with the best pitcher in the sport, on the road, in his ML debut and he isn’t even close to where he needs to be.  That’s impressive stuff.

That’s how I saw it too, but I think he’s much closer than he was when I saw him in ST, so much so that I think he’ll make it very hard to send him down .  Man, GRod has played with me the last few weeks.  I’m seriously considering going on Tuesday to see his home debut.  

[Can_of_corn]

And this, all of this, is why it was stupid to think he wasn't one of the best six options coming out of ST even with his struggles. 

Shame it took an injury.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And this, all of this, is why it was stupid to think he wasn't one of the best six options coming out of ST even with his struggles. 

Shame it took an injury.

6 options.  5 starters.   Everyone thought he was one of the 6 best options.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

6 options.  5 starters.   Everyone thought he was one of the 6 best options.

Right.  Typo.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And this, all of this, is why it was stupid to think he wasn't one of the best six options coming out of ST even with his struggles. 

Shame it took an injury.

Yea. Ultimately I was ok with the decision but felt he should be here. I never was concerned with anything outside of some mechanical changes.

That said, if there was somewhat of an attitude check in this decision, I don’t mind it at all. Maybe that’s all that was needed.

Hes going to be up and down for a while but having him here is still what’s likely best for him and the team.

[Tony-OH]

If Grayson keeps pitching the way he did against Texas, he's not going back down. 

We know this team needs another right-handed reliever so moving Wells to the pen, probably makes the most sense. Wells would immediately be a high leverage guy they need in the 8th inning. While he may want to start, and ultimately may get a chance to start again in the future, he fills a need for this team right now.