Chayce McDermott 2023

[emmett16]

McDermott is quietly having a really nice year.  I’d like to see him challenged & groomed in Norfolk as a reliever to help out down the stretch.  

[jabba72]

On 5/25/2023 at 9:59 AM, btdart20 said:

Is that our Juan Nunez too?  And I see Povich listed on the key, but can't figure out where he is on the chart.

Yes I think it is. Doing a search on MILB.com there's only one other Juan Nunez under 24 and he's in the DSL.

[Teddy OBP]

On 7/2/2023 at 9:36 PM, emmett16 said:

McDermott is quietly having a really nice year.  I’d like to see him challenged & groomed in Norfolk as a reliever to help out down the stretch.  

Seems like they should be looking at both him and Povich for this. I’ll admit to not having any idea how this potentially impacts them long term as starters but I do believe it was standard practice in the Stone Age to season young guys in the pen.

[emmett16]

10 hours ago, pdiddy said:

Seems like they should be looking at both him and Povich for this. I’ll admit to not having any idea how this potentially impacts them long term as starters but I do believe it was standard practice in the Stone Age to season young guys in the pen.

I’m surprised it’s not done more often.  Lets them learn how to get MLB batters out, allows them a little room for error (can hand pick situations), and you can keep their innings down.  To me it only makes sense.  

[RZNJ]

Chayce with 99k’s in 76 IP on the year.   At Norfolk today, 6 walks and 9 strikeouts in 5 IP and only 1 hit.  He’s a bit of a RH version of D.L. Hall.   He’s a bit of a project as a srtarter but you can dream on him at 1 or 2 innings at a time.    His stuff is electric.  Between the fastball and curve he’s got two swing and miss pitches.  It all comes down to command  (51 walks in 76 innings) and he’s not as scattershot as the numbers look.  He’s had starts where he went 4-5 innings and walked only 1.   
 

What am I getting at?   Before we go looking for the next Fujinami, an acquisition I like, why not take a peek in our own backyard?     McDermott has setup/closer potential and it’s his most likely future role.    The stuff is there now.   Let’s take a look.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Chayce with 99k’s in 76 IP on the year.   At Norfolk today, 6 walks and 9 strikeouts in 5 IP and only 1 hit.  He’s a bit of a RH version of D.L. Hall.   He’s a bit of a project as a srtarter but you can dream on him at 1 or 2 innings at a time.    His stuff is electric.  Between the fastball and curve he’s got two swing and miss pitches.  It all comes down to command  (51 walks in 76 innings) and he’s not as scattershot as the numbers look.  He’s had starts where he went 4-5 innings and walked only 1.   
 

What am I getting at?   Before we go looking for the next Fujinami, an acquisition I like, why not take a peek in our own backyard?     McDermott has setup/closer potential and it’s his most likely future role.    The stuff is there now.   Let’s take a look.

I worry how the walk rate will translate to the majors though I 100% agree with you that he's old enough and has the quality of stuff to get a look in the bullpen. 

I really would like to see if it plays even more up in relief but he is a right handed DL Hall before Hall lost his velocity.

[CHIP]

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Chayce with 99k’s in 76 IP on the year.   At Norfolk today, 6 walks and 9 strikeouts in 5 IP and only 1 hit....  It all comes down to command  (51 walks in 76 innings) and he’s not as scattershot as the numbers look.  He’s had starts where he went 4-5 innings and walked only 1.   

I watched the 2nd game of Norfolk's double header yesterday and Gwinett was throwing mostly sliders and the announcer was quoting the manager talking about keeping the ball away from the Norfolk hitters.  3 of the 4 hits were HRs.  So when the ball didn't miss the zone, it was smashed.

RZNJ I believe did hit the strength and weakness of McDermott pretty well.  Electric stuff but control issues.  6 walks in 5 innings was all the foot traffic by Gwinnett until the bottom of the 9th.  Norfolk was up 2-0 in 4th and Chayce's two walks that inning scored on that bloop single by Park. 

He did seem bothered by the humidity.  I am curious if someone with more time could look at the weather during his high walk games vs. low walk games.  How much do game time conditions impact his control?

 

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Very nice outing today from McDermott (assuming he's done, of course):

5ip (in relief)

7K

2 hits

2BB 

0 runs

[RZNJ]

Very impressive outing but the command isn't consistent start to start.  Maybe it gets better.  He seems to have a dominant 1-2 punch with his fastball/curve which is tempting.    He looks like a potentially more dominant version of Baumann.

[nvpacchi]

Second consecutive outing with 10+ whiffs, so going strong.

Found his fastball pitch shape data and it looks legitimately impressive.  16" - 18" inches of vertical break from a low arm slot sets him up to have the coveted high IVB high VAA fastball.  Even with average velo the FB can play in the way that Cristian Javier has been successful with meh velocity.

But I guess we all know that his command will be what carries him, judging by this heat map he's still figuring it out...

[RZNJ]

Anything on his curve?  It’s one of those 12-6 that breaks about 2 feet straight down. Unhittable at times.

[Jim'sKid26]

@nvpacchi Please say more about the "coveted high IVB high VAA fastball." My interest is piqued! What is it? Where do I read more about it. Thanks in advance.

[CHIP]

2 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Very nice outing today from McDermott (assuming he's done, of course):

5ip (in relief)

7K

2 hits

2BB 

0 runs

It would have been his normal start day.  Voth was doing his rehab and didn't get out of the first (33/21) because of an error by Prieto.  The new (old) guy McFarland finished the 1st and 2nd (22/11) but had 2 BBs.  So then McDermott got his 'start' in the 3rd inning.

Looking at BaseballSavant, McDermott was 93 topping 94.  This seems a tick below last start but last start he walked 6.  So maybe control first velo 2nd is his current recipe for success

[nvpacchi]

38 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

@nvpacchi Please say more about the "coveted high IVB high VAA fastball." My interest is piqued! What is it? Where do I read more about it. Thanks in advance.

I would say this article from Alex Chamberlain is the best place to start on VAA (vertical approach angle). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-visualized-primer-on-vertical-approach-angle-vaa/

In essence, fastballs that have a higher (or closer to 0 since we're dealing with negative numbers) VAA, or approach the plate at a flatter angle are more effective than steeper fastballs.  In contrast, you'd want your sinkers to approach the plate at a steeper angle.

Pitchers can impact their VAAs.  First, a fastball higher in the zone will tend to come in flatter than one thrown below the knees. But the arm slot has to do a lot with how a pitcher's average fastballs crosses the plate.  Lower the arm slot, the flatter (think Paul Sewald) and conversely the higher the fastball the steeper (Felix Bautista).

This chart is all fastballs thrown this year, and there is a noticeable negative relationship between release point and VAA (-0.34 correlation for the numerically curious).

 

And given that there isn't a perfect correlation, that means there's room to exploit the relationship and be on the good side of the equation.  Its purely my hunch, but given that McDermott already has a release point (around 5.75 ft) that favors a flatter fastball, and he also posts above average IVBs on his fastball, it should lend to a fastball with a flatter VAA (independent of location).

Spencer Strider is the poster child of this, and it makes sense seeing how dominant he is with his fastball.

The beauty of this all comes together when seeing what a pitch with above average ride (IVB) and flatness can do.  The chart below measures swinging strike rate.  IVB is on the x-axis and VAA is on the y-axis.  You can see even if your fastball has limited ride, but has insane VAA (like > -4) you can still generate significant swing and miss.  A lot of that has to do with flatter fastballs being higher in the zone and more prone to swinging strikes, but you can still have an effective fastball if its flat with just average ride (kind of like Freddy Peralta).  But when you pair a flat VAA with good ride, it's game over for the hitter.

McDermott's 16-18 IVB, paired with (let's say) a -4.75 to -4.25 VAA (I'll try to pull the real numbers soon) has him close to or in the coveted red spot on the chart below.

Let me know if something isn't clear and I can try to explain further.  Its not the most intuitive thing to think about, but just another reason why velo isn't the primary factor when grading a pitcher's 4-seam.

 

 

 

 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, nvpacchi said:

Second consecutive outing with 10+ whiffs, so going strong.

Found his fastball pitch shape data and it looks legitimately impressive.  16" - 18" inches of vertical break from a low arm slot sets him up to have the coveted high IVB high VAA fastball.  Even with average velo the FB can play in the way that Cristian Javier has been successful with meh velocity.

But I guess we all know that his command will be what carries him, judging by this heat map he's still figuring it out...

That’s quite a scatter chart.