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One key to Orioles success

brucewayne

By brucewayne
in Orioles Talk

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Frobby
Frobby

I don’t know, but in my opinion, WAR based stats don’t determine whether a bullpen is “lockdown.”   For me, lockdown means that once the team has the lead, that game is over.   Last year’s pen was pre

brucewayne
brucewayne

The stats say that Frazier is meh, but actually Frazier is a top level player. He has the clutch gene. He is the leader of the team. Stats cannot measure what is inside. Guys like Frazier have the hea

IPlayGM
IPlayGM

Good post, and got me thinking. Could the Orioles be the team that swings the pendulum back from the current home run or bust mindset of the league? They are certainly bucking the trend in many ways,

Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

But that either has to show up in the stats or the stats are missing something.  I don't see why that is so hard to understand.  We have a very average bullpen as Frobby pointed out earlier. Our pitching is close to league average.  Our OPS is nothing special.  

 

 

The WPA for the back of the pen is huge.

This team built their early record on the backs of Felix and Cano.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You have this on a bumper sticker on your car don’t you?

I think it's almost egotistical for folks to think I pick out posts by individual posters to react to.

I don't care who makes the post.  (Unless maybe it's someone that is clearly circumventing a ban)

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Baltimorecuse Major Leaguer Rising Star

Baltimorecuse

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wasn't calling you a literal Luddite, I was using it in the modern sense.

The modern sense is wrong.  The Luddites to me are sympathetic characters.  But, yeah, I knew what you meant.  No, Iove technology.  Bio-technology saved my wife's life from stage 4-c cancer.  The doctors can hardly believe it.  

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
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3 hours ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Yawn!

You didn't even begin to refute what I said.  This isn't about math.  It's about failed statistical models.  Show my any stat that justifies our record, any.  

 

I don’t agree.  The statistical model of a Pythagorean record absolutely expects that some teams will exceed it.  Just like we know that if you did a series of 100 flips of a coin 100 times, they wouldn’t all come up at 50 heads and 50 tails.  Most would be in that vicinity, very few would be exactly that, and there wouid be several outliers.  That’s how probability works.  Let’s just be glad the Orioles are one of the outliers.  And, there are some reasons they are.  

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Baltimorecuse Major Leaguer Rising Star

Baltimorecuse

Posted
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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t agree.  The statistical model of a Pythagorean record absolutely expects that some teams will exceed it.  Just like we know that if you did a series of 100 flips of a coin 100 times, they wouldn’t all come up at 50 heads and 50 tails.  Most would be in that vicinity, very few would be exactly that, and there wouid be several outliers.  That’s how probability works.  Let’s just be glad the Orioles are one of the outliers.  And, there are some reasons they are.  

What do you think the reasons are?  Of course there are reasons.  I wasn't trolling when I asked what are the reasons.  Part of it is the fallacy of averages.  If a half dozen of us was having a beer then we could if we wished determine an average net worth.  If Bill Gates joins us that will skewer the average PDQ.  

We were outscored by Seattle but we won 2 out of 3 games.  I think that's the key.  Each nine innings is essentially a new toss of the coin.  Moreover, because the game is played in nine inning segments, every night you're a different team.  

 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, Baltimorecuse said:

What do you think the reasons are?  Of course there are reasons.  I wasn't trolling when I asked what are the reasons.  Part of it is the fallacy of averages.  If a half dozen of us was having a beer then we could if we wished determine an average net worth.  If Bill Gates joins us that will skewer the average PDQ.  

We were outscored by Seattle but we won 2 out of 3 games.  I think that's the key.  Each nine innings is essentially a new toss of the coin.  Moreover, because the game is played in nine inning segments, every night you're a different team.  

 

I posted a link to a Fangraphs piece yesterday.

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Baltimorecuse Major Leaguer Rising Star

Baltimorecuse

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25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I posted a link to a Fangraphs piece yesterday.

Interesting article.  Didn't I say something about 1 run games just recently.  

The first place to look is a lopsided record in one-run games; indeed, this year’s Orioles, Marlins, and Brewers all have better records in one-run games than they do overall. 

I've got to think  about WPA.  If it's been back tested and it's predictive, it's very interesting.  

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