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I dont know how far this team goes in 2023....but I know this..


Roy Firestone

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I will analyze this at the end of the year when I have time in the offseason.  The one thing I’ll say now is, the way I think of things, the Means injury is not “bad luck” in 2023.   He got hurt in 2022 and we knew all offseason that he wouldn’t return until sometime in the second half.  You can anticipate and prepare for that.  

Sure, but there was the back strain this year that delayed his return by a month or so.

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14 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

They're both me. But in game threads, I'm often in a fetal position and get aggravated easily . Sometimes I'm trying to use my "reverse jinx" in my negativity. But it's not REALLY a negative 'hate'...its frustration. Look, I was an Oriole batboy as a kid. Players on those great teams are still my lifetime friends. Brooks Robinson is still my childhood hero and he never let me down as a person...The Orioles organization is like family to me. It's not enough to say I bleed orange and black..for whatever people think of my cynicism on threads...there is DEEP love in a way I cant describe. My house is an Oriole shrine with memorabilia and momentos..It's my number one passion in sports. I dont want to change. Women in my life have either been disgusted and leave...and the ones who stay are or become Oriole fans with me.I cant help it. And I dont want anyone to "fix" it.

Haha, I wdn't even try to fix it! Brooks is also one of my childhood heros--someday I'll write about it. For me as well, the 1966 team has always been the most beloved one, but this year is my favorite of the 21st century.

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8 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

Holliday, and Mayo, and Ortiz are coming...and Means at full strength next year, this team is going to be very good for a long time...if they stay healthy...

....And if Johnny realizes he has to do what Atlanta has done and lock up some of these young guys (Adley, Gunnar...) long term.  Enjoy this as long as we can, especially all the young guys.  

Payroll was over $100M 2014-18; 2016 - $147.9M, 2017 - $161.6M, 2018 - $143.6M...

We've been bankrolling the payroll cuts the last 3 years., 2021 - $59.4M 2022 $44.9M, 2023 $70.4M  .

Get to the WS.  I still have a bad taste in my mouth from 2014, and had a ticket to a game 5 that was never played. 

This looks like Atlanta's year.  Eye of the Tiger to take the WS.
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/3a84c905-f677-4030-99f3-691fde75f7a0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

....And if Johnny realizes he has to do what Atlanta has done and lock up some of these young guys (Adley, Gunnar...) long term.  Enjoy this as long as we can, especially all the young guys.  

Payroll was over $100M 2014-18; 2016 - $147.9M, 2017 - $161.6M, 2018 - $143.6M...

We've been bankrolling the payroll cuts the last 3 years., 2021 - $59.4M 2022 $44.9M, 2023 $70.4M  .

Get to the WS.  I still have a bad taste in my mouth from 2014, and had a ticket to a game 5 that was never played. 

This looks like Atlanta's year.  Eye of the Tiger to take the WS.
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/3a84c905-f677-4030-99f3-691fde75f7a0

 

 

I wish we could go 100% Atlanta model, but we probably can’t.  Their payroll is at $213 mm this year, and per BB-ref, looks to be at $247 mm, $277 mm, $273 mm, $216 mm, $174 mm over the next 5 years if they exercise the options in all those very favorable contracts they’ve signed.  The O’s obviously can spend a lot more than they’ve spent the last 3 years, and should.  But we’re not going to see multiple years of $200 mm payrolls here, much less the $250+ mm that Atlanta may be running a couple of years from now.  

More realistically, we can probably choose 2-3 key guys to lock up long term, and the remaining players will be traded as they near free agency.  
 

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11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wish we could go 100% Atlanta model, but we probably can’t.  Their payroll is at $213 mm this year, and per BB-ref, looks to be at $247 mm, $277 mm, $273 mm, $216 mm, $174 mm over the next 5 years if they exercise the options in all those very favorable contracts they’ve signed.  The O’s obviously can spend a lot more than they’ve spent the last 3 years, and should.  But we’re not going to see multiple years of $200 mm payrolls here, much less the $250+ mm that Atlanta may be running a couple of years from now.  

More realistically, we can probably choose 2-3 key guys to lock up long term, and the remaining players will be traded as they near free agency.  
 

I agree that are not going there with the payroll.  I will be surprised if they extend Gunnar or Adley.

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I share every positive sentiment expressed here about this team, also as a longtime fan (attended first O's game in '58). Still it seems worth casting some perspective here, re. recency bias and hometown bias.

1966 was notable, among other reasons, for its influx of youth: Etchebarren, Davey Johnson, Blefary, Palmer, Bowens... Now you're correct if you say these were not all blue-chip prospects of the caliber we now enjoy. But at the time their contributions were equally electric (at least to a young fan). Jump ahead to 1973-74 and you have Bumbry, Coggins, Baylor, Grich... another pennant-winning youth movement and late-season heroics. And so on... which gets to the next point, about season success vs. playoff success.

As we know all too well from Oriole history, there are other "magic" and meteoric teams out there to contend with too, every season, to put an October damper on our fondest summer dreams. As for long-term success, look at the Braves dynasty of the 1990s for season dominance and hardly anything to show for it. They finished first 14 out of 15 years from 1991, went to the World Series only 3 of those years, and won once. Playoff odds have gone downhill for every team dramatically by now, where we have to contend with 11 other hot or division winning teams. 

Is this year's Orioles Magic any more potent than 1966, 1969-71, 1973-74, 1979-80, 1983, 1989, 1997, 2012 or 2014? We can try to judge with stats or charts, or just how it feels at the time. Each time feels like the best. Is 2023 the best ever? Hard to say for sure, but I'll circle back to say Why Not? It's what's happening now, and that's the best there is. 

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57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wish we could go 100% Atlanta model, but we probably can’t.  Their payroll is at $213 mm this year, and per BB-ref, looks to be at $247 mm, $277 mm, $273 mm, $216 mm, $174 mm over the next 5 years if they exercise the options in all those very favorable contracts they’ve signed.  The O’s obviously can spend a lot more than they’ve spent the last 3 years, and should.  But we’re not going to see multiple years of $200 mm payrolls here, much less the $250+ mm that Atlanta may be running a couple of years from now.  

More realistically, we can probably choose 2-3 key guys to lock up long term, and the remaining players will be traded as they near free agency.  
 

Give Elias $160M and he'll make it work.  I didn't hear any phony talk of having to raise ticket prices in 2017.  I have to believe baseball as a whole if much more profitable than it was then.

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3 minutes ago, now said:

I share every positive sentiment expressed here about this team, also as a longtime fan (attended first O's game in '58). Still it seems worth casting some perspective here, re. recency bias and hometown bias.

1966 was notable, among other reasons, for its influx of youth: Etchebarren, Davey Johnson, Blefary, Palmer, Bowens... Now you're correct if you say these were not all blue-chip prospects of the caliber we now enjoy. But at the time their contributions were equally electric (at least to a young fan). Jump ahead to 1973-74 and you have Bumbry, Coggins, Baylor, Grich... another pennant-winning youth movement and late-season heroics. And so on... which gets to the next point, about season success vs. playoff success.

As we know all too well from Oriole history, there are other "magic" and meteoric teams out there to contend with too, every season, to put an October damper on our fondest summer dreams. As for long-term success, look at the Braves dynasty of the 1990s for season dominance and hardly anything to show for it. They finished first 14 out of 15 years from 1991, went to the World Series only 3 of those years, and won once. Playoff odds have gone downhill for every team dramatically by now, where we have to contend with 11 other hot or division winning teams. 

Is this year's Orioles Magic any more potent than 1966, 1969-71, 1973-74, 1979-80, 1983, 1989, 1997, 2012 or 2014? We can try to judge with stats or charts, or just how it feels at the time. Each time feels like the best. Is 2023 the best ever? Hard to say for sure, but I'll circle back to say Why Not? It's what's happening now, and that's the best there is. 

Your memory is better than mine - thanks for the recap - the memories that came flooding back.. You are right on. I always appreciate Roy's perspective and thank you for yours. Today's beer does taste the coldest but who is to say. Let's just root that tomorrow is even colder. With this team, I wouldn't bet otherwise.

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2 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

They're both me. But in game threads, I'm often in a fetal position and get aggravated easily . Sometimes I'm trying to use my "reverse jinx" in my negativity. But it's not REALLY a negative 'hate'...its frustration. Look, I was an Oriole batboy as a kid. Players on those great teams are still my lifetime friends. Brooks Robinson is still my childhood hero and he never let me down as a person...The Orioles organization is like family to me. It's not enough to say I bleed orange and black..for whatever people think of my cynicism on threads...there is DEEP love in a way I cant describe. My house is an Oriole shrine with memorabilia and momentos..It's my number one passion in sports. I dont want to change. Women in my life have either been disgusted and leave...and the ones who stay are or become Oriole fans with me.I cant help it. And I dont want anyone to "fix" it.

Roy our ribbing of you in the game threads is our love for you. Nothing more. It's not often you get to tease a mega star.

Edited by Malike
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I've been following the Birds since I moved to the area in 1996, so I was here for Peak Alomar, Buck/Duquette and lots of losing in between.  The 1997 team was loaded with proven veteran talent.  There wasn't a lot of "magic" to them--they were just better than everyone else, and it felt like a fluke when they didn't win the WS.  The 2012 team had a lot of magic and excitement about them because they were built around young talent and because the team had been so bad for so long.  The 2023 team is also young and exciting; the differences between this team and 2012 are (1) this team is exceptionally resilient--every time they take a body blow they come back stronger; (2) this team has a wave of young talent behind it, while in 2012-14 there was more of a sense that Duquette had to sacrifice the farm system to bolster the major league team.   

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11 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

I think this has been the most thrilling Oriole season since the glory years of Frank and Brooks and Boog and Palmer. A more charismatic team than the Cal, Eddie, Singleton teams...The Orioles of 2023 have had more electrifying  highlights, more compelling games, more surprises, and more young talent than any I can remember any time recently. This team just never gives up, is almost never out of any game, has an uncanny ability to come through and win those comebacks games.... and this team also seems to really be made up of a bunch of guys who really like each other and are happy when the other teammates do well. It's the easiest team to love in my 60 years of being an Oriole fan. Bless these guys...no matter what happens, this is my favourite Oriole team in 50 years. I've loved every moment of this season.This is a ride that never ends...but if and when it does...what a hell of a ride these guys gave us.

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