Drafting Philosophy

[RZNJ]

This has nothing to do with Ciolek leaving but I wonder if the Orioles might have a shift in drafting philosophy this year.  They’ve been pretty successful going with mostly college position players in the first 5 rounds of the draft though most of that success is 1st and 2nd round.  Too early to call on last years draft when they started to sprinkle in some college pitching, but rounds 3-10 haven’t been that successful with the exception of Joey Ortiz (4th in 2019).   On the other hand the Orioles have hit, to some extent on every HS hitter they’ve drafted.  Henderson (2nd) and Hernaiz (5th) in 2019, Mayo (4th - overslot), in 2020, Creed Willems (8th - overslot) in 2021, and making the right choice on Holliday at 1:1) in 2022.   They did not draft a HS player within the first 10 rounds or sign either of the two in the later rounds last year.

Who are and who have been our Uber prospects?  Henderson, Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo.   All players scouted and signed no older than 18.   The Orioles have said there is much more data available on college hitters and that has been their comfort zone but one could argue high picks on Watson, Servideo, Rhodes, Haskin, Trimble, Donta Williams, would have been better spent trying to find a HS hitter.  Almost all of our hits on college hitters have been 1st round and 1st round supplemental and Norby in the 2nd.  The success rate, understandably goes way down after that.  So why not, a little like 2023, go for pitching and HS talent a little sooner?

The drafting success in the early rounds has produced good depth but now we need as many Uber prospects as possible.  Koby Perez helping out on that end with Basallo, and hopefully a few more amongst Tavera, Soto, Arias, Almeyda, and Liranzo.   Now, let’s find the next Henderson or Mayo in the 2024 draft.   With our lower drafting position this is the perfect time to employ a different strategy.

[Just Regular]

Teddy Sharkey was I think Elias' first clean shot at a fast-moving reliever.     I feel before the end of this Adley-Basallo run there may be some lean towards the Gregg Olson-Chris Ray-Garrett Crochet kind of guy where in July we get the novelty fun of choosing someone who might join the mix in 8 weeks.

'24 Sharkey will I think be somewhat like '23 Holliday - go somewhere a month and if you dominate the competition, go to the next one.

Garner Rodriguez, Class of 2026, and Ethan Holliday, Class of 2025 will be fun to follow their years.     Elias might need a 2024 RoY to have a representative pool in case Ethan pulls a reverse John Elway and wants the Baltimore organization.

[Bird Lady]

6 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Garner Rodriguez, Class of 2026, and Ethan Holliday, Class of 2025 will be fun to follow their years.     

Don't forget about 16 year old Cade Henderson!

[Rbiggs2525]

If Elias is true to his word, the player personnel department is a big collaboration. My bigger concern when people like Ciolek leave is that our philosophy is migrating around the league. I will be in a wait and see mode over next couple drafts.

[btdart20]

I think we've seen some shifting of risk-measures over the last few years.  

Here's the draft trend as I see it:

1st round - BPA meaning lowest risk with the highest ceiling.  SigBot places a "near universal" risk factor on pitchers that will knock most out of the first round.  That said, we would have probably taken Skenes at 1.17 had a series of unfortunate events taken place in spots 1.1-1.16.  

Comp/2nd round - BPA toolsy guys - This is the Gunnar, Mayo, Beavers, Wagner, Westburg, realm.  This is the over-slotters.  We may see some SPs in here occasionally.  Moving forward, there's not much difference from a 1.24 pick and a Comp pick (or even a 2.25 pick).  So, yeah, we might see more HS picks.

Rounds 3-5 - This is where team needs have more influence than the risk factor.  Previously, the need was about replenishing a thin system so bats were the focus.  2023 was about pitching.  2024 may still be pitching.  It may always be pitching at this point because TINSTAAPP.  "Lift off"

FWIW - I've seen that the 2024 draft class is pitching heavy.  And the Ohtani Effect is in play as there is much more two-way chatter for players too.

[LookinUp]

It seems like we finally are beginning to see the fruits of the international program too. With better depth now pretty well established (though not perfect), you have to wonder if that makes us slightly more likely to go for upside over safe.

Given the state of our system and major league team now, I figure think they'll continue to build pitching depth for another year or two, or at least be more balanced in that direction than they used to be. I'd personally love to see our top 3 picks be upside pitchers.

[Rbiggs2525]

6 hours ago, LookinUp said:

It seems like we finally are beginning to see the fruits of the international program too. With better depth now pretty well established (though not perfect), you have to wonder if that makes us slightly more likely to go for upside over safe.

Given the state of our system and major league team now, I figure think they'll continue to build pitching depth for another year or two, or at least be more balanced in that direction than they used to be. I'd personally love to see our top 3 picks be upside pitchers.

I like the idea of high school arms given the success of Grayson and Hall. I guess you could say Showalter was trending in the right direction as well. I like the idea of being able to mold the kids myself. Instead of some college college coach that is fighting for his job. 
 

Then again do you deviate from the success you’ve had. The price may cost 2 hitting prospects for 1 pitching prospect but what is the probability of the brain trust hitting that prospect. 

[now]

On 10/26/2023 at 6:38 AM, btdart20 said:

SigBot places a "near universal" risk factor on pitchers that will knock most out of the first round....

It may always be pitching at this point because TINSTAAPP.  "Lift off"

I can see the logic of too much risk for a pitcher in the all-important first round. But doesn't it hold throughout?

Yes, 2023 seemed to signal a new trend (for Elias) of pitching depth in the lower rounds. But with any given pick, the injury risk factor is still going to favor the position player. 

We should see soon if the theory of trading hitting prospects for established pitchers becomes a reality. Perhaps... On the other hand, the FA route, cheaper analytical pickups, and trading position vets (Hays, Mullins, Santander) for high pitching prospects (a la Johnson, McDermott, Povich) might remain the preferred, lower-risk route to acquiring pitchers.

Edited November 18, 2023 by now