Cease vs everyone else

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Kremer in Arb 3 probably makes 60-70% of what he’d make annually as a free agent, without any multi-year commitment.  So how does that constitute an overpayment?

Because Sports Guy has decided he wants to trade Kremer, so now logic will be contorted, and facts will be either ignored or promoted, all based on the idea that Kremer MUST be traded.

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because the established market value of a product is clearly an 100% overpay.

 

Sounds like you undervalue pitching.

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Someone has probably looked into this already but does a guy that is hot/cold/hot/cold produce less value than someone who has a consistent level of performance?

If not than your issue with Mountcastle is cosmetic.

His ice cold stretches are too long for my taste. When he’s cold he can’t even hit a sac fly.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

His ice cold stretches are too long for my taste. When he’s cold he can’t even hit a sac fly.

So, you don't like watching him play.

Cosmetic.

You are of course entitled to that opinion but I don't think it is a problem with Mountcastle.

 

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Sounds like you undervalue pitching.

Whoosh!

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So, you don't like watching him play.

Cosmetic.

You are of course entitled to that opinion but I don't think it is a problem with Mountcastle.

 

I don’t think there’s any statistical evidence that a less streaky player is more valuable than a more streaky player if they end up with the same stats.  It’s certainly more aesthetically pleasing when a player is somewhat consistent.  

[Pickles]

49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Whoosh!

I got it.  I was responding in kind.

[Pickles]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

That’s a tough one but ultimately I think it comes down to how you view Cease.   I would roll the dice on that trade but I think Elias would not.   

That's crazy to me.  So you're willing to trade two top sixty prospects for a minor upgrade in the starting rotation for two years?

It doesn't make sense on any level, unless you've convinced yourself the O's MUST do SOMETHING, and that something must be Dylan Cease.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That's crazy to me.  So you're willing to trade two top sixty prospects for a minor upgrade in the starting rotation for two years?

It doesn't make sense on any level, unless you've convinced yourself the O's MUST do SOMETHING, and that something must be Dylan Cease.

If you think Cease will rebound it makes more sense.  That would be a significant upgrade.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you think Cease will rebound it makes more sense.  That would be a significant upgrade.

None of us know the future, so the best you can do is play the odds.

The odds are that Cease is a moderate upgrade over Kremer for the next two years.

It's highly debatable if two years of Cease is worth 4 years of Kremer.

Throwing in to top 60 prospects on top is pure madness.

[Jagwar]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Wayyyyy toooo much 

 

There is no way Elias gets close to this. IMO Kremer has too much value to our own team. Plus the White Sox are at least 3 years from being any good. Why would they want to use what’s left of his control on losing teams. And you don’t subtract from your roster when you are competing. You give them prospects! I don’t believe anyone is giving them 2 top 100 prospects. 
 

 

I suppose my next question would be... would you rather give up Kremer in a trade or both of Povich/McDermott?

[dystopia]

5 hours ago, Jagwar said:

What if it was Cease for Cowser, Ortiz and Kremer?

Late to the party but I'll add my 2 cents and say that Cease is not enough of an upgrade over Kremer to justify trading those two prospects in addition. In fact I'd go further and say that if you even consider this trade you need to have your head examined. 

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Again, overpaying mediocrity isn’t something you should be happy to do.

This is coming from the guy who said $10 mil a year for Lance Lynn was fair market value. 

[Roll Tide]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you think Cease will rebound it makes more sense.  That would be a significant upgrade.

I don’t think the difference between Cease and Kremer is worth 2 top 50 prospects. Plus you’d then need to replace Kremer. Neither of the other starting option has proven he can give you 160-200 innings 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t think the difference between Cease and Kremer is worth 2 top 50 prospects. Plus you’d then need to replace Kremer. Neither of the other starting option has proven he can give you 160-200 innings 

I'm not saying I do either, just that would be the rational.  If the O's looked at Cease and thought they could get him back to that level.