What are your expectations for Grayson Rodriguez in 2024?

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's a lot of round numbers.

 

You wanted exact?  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

You wanted exact?  

Naw, I just thought it amusing that you went all round numbers and then exact with the W/L.

 

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sounds like you are dismissing Bradish!

Someone’s gotta be runner up. 

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Brain Matusz-

2010 season:

First half- 3-9 4.77 ERA

Second half- 7-3 3.63 ERA.

Hey, he's trending up!  He's looking pretty decent there, finishing strong!

 

2011 season:

1-9 10.69 ERA

 

A young pitcher having a stronger second half isn't a guarantee of future success.

Well, obviously.   But I’d be interested to know if there’s a general trend or not.  Clearly there are no guarantees.   

[AlbNYfan]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

180 IP, 140 H, 50 BB, 200 K.   3.00 ERA.   16-9

Now, he knows he can do it.   

I am not sure "he" knows he can do it. He seems to have all the tools. but sometimes (to me) he still looks like "a deer in the headlights" vs I have this. He still seems to get to high pitch counts early. Good hitters seem to be able to fight off pitches. I hope for the best and respect your projections, but I am not quite there yet.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, AlbNYfan said:

I am not sure "he" knows he can do it. He seems to have all the tools. but sometimes (to me) he still looks like "a deer in the headlights" vs I have this. He still seems to get to high pitch counts early. Good hitters seem to be able to fight off pitches. I hope for the best and respect your projections, but I am not quite there yet.

He did it in the second half.  He averaged slightly under 6 IP per start.  13 starts.  76.2 IP.   I pretty much extrapolated those 13 starts and figured on a few more strikeouts.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Brain Matusz-

2010 season:

First half- 3-9 4.77 ERA

Second half- 7-3 3.63 ERA.

Hey, he's trending up!  He's looking pretty decent there, finishing strong!

 

2011 season:

1-9 10.69 ERA

 

A young pitcher having a stronger second half isn't a guarantee of future success.

You're comparing him to a soft tossing lefty?  There are absolutely no guarantees, but I'll take my chances with a guy who has 3 plus pitches and dominated the opposition with electric stuff.  The big number(s) that sticks out to me in his second half was only allowing 3 HR & 21 walks.  He gave up 13HR and 21 BBs in the first half in just about half the innings pitched as the second half.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

You're comparing him to a soft tossing lefty?  There are absolutely no guarantees, but I'll take my chances with a guy who has 3 plus pitches and dominated the opposition with electric stuff.  The big number(s) that sticks out to me in his second half was only allowing 3 HR & 21 walks.  He gave up 13HR and 21 BBs in the first half in just about half the innings pitched as the second half.  

I'm comparing him with a young pitcher who finished his first season on an up note.

I'll also take exception at calling 2010 Matusz soft tossing.  Wasn't like he was running it up there in the high 80's.

[emmett16]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm comparing him with a young pitcher who finished his first season on an up note.

I'll also take exception at calling 2010 Matusz soft tossing.  Wasn't like he was running it up there in the high 80's.

I don't see any point in comparing him to someone who profiles completely differently. 

The average fastball in 2010 was 93.1 and Brian Matusz was 90.5.  I'll stick with what I said.  

And, in fact, in 2011 he was running it up there in the high 80's.  

Edited December 17, 2023 by emmett16

[dystopia]

27 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I don't see any point in comparing him to someone who profiles completely differently. 

The average fastball in 2010 was 93.1 and Brian Matusz was 90.5.  I'll stick with what I said.  

And, in fact, in 2011 he was running it up there in the high 80's.  

Not to mention the O’s has zero ability to develop pitchers back then. An absurd comparison that didn’t even deserve to be acknowledged. 

[Jagwar]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm comparing him with a young pitcher who finished his first season on an up note.

I'll also take exception at calling 2010 Matusz soft tossing.  Wasn't like he was running it up there in the high 80's.

I thought in his best seasons Matusz was throwing 96-98?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

I don't see any point in comparing him to someone who profiles completely differently. 

The average fastball in 2010 was 93.1 and Brian Matusz was 90.5.  I'll stick with what I said.  

And, in fact, in 2011 he was running it up there in the high 80's.  

I’ll take @Can_of_corn’s side in part.  There’s no evidence that the style of a young  pitcher affects whether a good second half carries over to the next season more than for another style of pitcher.  At least, not yet.  

Where I part with @can_of_corn is that I don’t think giving one example means anything with respect to whether there’s a general tendency for good second half results to carry over for a young pitcher.  It needs to be researched more generally, which I may do sometime soon.  
 

[emmett16]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ll take @Can_of_corn’s side in part.  There’s no evidence that the style of a young  pitcher affects whether a good second half carries over to the next season more than for another style of pitcher.  At least, not yet.  

Where I part with @can_of_corn is that I don’t think giving one example means anything with respect to whether there’s a general tendency for good second half results to carry over for a young pitcher.  It needs to be researched more generally, which I may do sometime soon.  
 

I understand his point.  But I also think that elite velocity and elite movement on that velocity will always outperform, in the aggregate, non-elite velocity and movement.  The simple fact that the batter has less time to make a decision and perform will win out more often than not.  There is a direct correlation between velocity and a batters OBACON.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

I thought in his best seasons Matusz was throwing 96-98?

Maybe he hit 96-98 a couple of times.  His highest avg. fastball was 92.1 in 2009 & 2013.

Also interesting that his worst year was 2011(10.69 era)  when his avg. velocity dropped to lowest in his career @88.7….right after that good 2010 second half.  

Edited December 17, 2023 by emmett16

[ShoelesJoe]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Brain Matusz-

2010 season:

First half- 3-9 4.77 ERA

Second half- 7-3 3.63 ERA.

Hey, he's trending up!  He's looking pretty decent there, finishing strong!

 

2011 season:

1-9 10.69 ERA

 

A young pitcher having a stronger second half isn't a guarantee of future success.

Wasn't the fall of Matusz mainly due to Showalter ordering him to quicken his delivery to the plate? My memory is that while Matusz never had outstanding velocity he was able to hide the ball so that his pitches were sneaky fast. But Buck was worried that he was too slow to the plate and runners would be able to steal on him at will, even with the Wieters howitzer at backstop. So both Matusz's wind-up and stretch deliveries were adjusted to stop the running game, which meant he was no longer able to hide the ball as well during his delivery. 

Between Brain Matusz and Jake Arrieta we did a bang up job helping those guys reach their peak.