Would the Burnes trade have happened without the pending ownership change?

[SteveA]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have no idea how anyone can logically answer this question with a no.

For you to say no, you believe one of 2 things:

1) Elias and Arnold came together on a deal in the last 24-48 hours and hadn’t discussed it before then.

2) Elias was involved in Burnes discussions earlier even though he didn’t know if Angelos would allow the money to be added.

I don’t see how anyone can believe either of those things.

Read my post a few posts up in this thread.   I believe the deal would not have happend without the ownership change, and I don't believe in 1 or 2.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Read my post a few posts up in this thread.   I believe the deal would not have happend without the ownership change, and I don't believe in 1 or 2.

I read it…it’s incredibly far fetched imo and it also doesn’t take into account that the Os were in on Cease At the deadline, which again means he had approval to take on the money.

Elias said from day 1 that an upper echelon starter was his goal.  Those guys aren’t usually cost effective, at least the ones available.

So no, I don’t buy any of that. It just doesn’t add up or make sense.

That said, I will acknowledge if you want to believe the far fetched, that is a 3rd option.

[TopGunnar]

Rubenstein hasn’t even stopped celebrating his new business venture yet. Angelos knew about the deal. It was going to happen regardless. 

[Frobby]

Elias pretty flatly stated that he only consulted with Angelos and this deal had been in discussion for months.   So I feel even more confident than before that the Rubrnstein was not involved.  

[elextrano8]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Elias pretty flatly stated that he only consulted with Angelos and this deal had been in discussion for months.   So I feel even more confident than before that the Rubrnstein was not involved.  

While this is true, I am also confident that Elias knew full well the implication of the timing. I don't know what that means, exactly, because I doubt Elias would have delayed a move to send a message.

[TonySoprano]

On 2/2/2024 at 12:53 PM, Sports Guy said:

I read it…it’s incredibly far fetched imo and it also doesn’t take into account that the Os were in on Cease At the deadline, which again means he had approval to take on the money.

Elias said from day 1 that an upper echelon starter was his goal.  Those guys aren’t usually cost effective, at least the ones available.

So no, I don’t buy any of that. It just doesn’t add up or make sense.

That said, I will acknowledge if you want to believe the far fetched, that is a 3rd option.

You go off on a tangent with Cease at the deadline.  His salary was $5.3M; Burnes was $10.1M.  To a team like the Orioles, where ownership doesn't give the GM an operating budget; yes  even an extra $5M is a big difference.

Are you saying that Elias was unaware of the ownership sale discussions over the past several weeks or more?   That didn't come together overnight either.   Not close. 

Even if you want to believe Elias was totally oblivious to all that,  exploring a trade is what GMs do.   He can do all the due diligence, but in the end, he still had to make his case to Fredo.  We saw his father nix many deals over money.   

Could it be a coincidence the deal was approved two days after the ownership sale was approved?  Sure.  That said, Fredo was keeping payroll at or near the bottom of all MLB to facilitate a sale for the past few years.   He now has a deal in place  

Here's the bigger question - does Fredo still approve the deal if he had no deal in place to sell the team?   I say, "no." 

Far fetched would be answering "yes" to that question, but make your case why he agreed.    Was it for the team legacy?  Hah.  Here's what we know.  His development grift deal with the Governor was shot down by people paying attention to how taxpayer money was spent.   Where would that money have gone?  Orioles or Angelos?

 This is the same Fredo who tried to cry poor, put it off on the ticket paying public.   Don't get too attached to Adley, Henderson and the future.   Can't look in the books and see what percentage of revenue comes from attendance versus other sources.   Well here are some estimates I wrote down on a napkin.  Forbes estimates the Orioles 2023 revenue was *$264M, and it's been over $250M every year since 2017 with the exception of COVID 2020.  

In 2023, the average ticket price was around $34 with 1.93M going though the turnstiles.   Ballpark, close to $200M in revenue wasn't ticket sales.  
* https://www.forbes.com/teams/baltimore-orioles/?sh=494c255076db

 

Edited February 4 by TonySoprano

[Aristotelian]

On 2/2/2024 at 6:55 AM, Moose Milligan said:

I think so.  I think the timing was very serendipitous, as @Frobbysaid.

I don't think a trade like that happens overnight, I have to assume that Elias and the Brewers were laying the groundwork for this for awhile.  I don't see a situation where the deal for new Orioles ownership is announced and then Elias hits the phones for Burnes even though the ownership hasn't transferred hands yet.   John Angelos still controls the purse strings, although that's probably not the case by Opening Day.

 

I voted no, not because I think Rubenstein got Elias to hit the phones but because I think if the sale falls apart the deal (which I agree was likely in the works) also falls apart. The teardown appears as we thought part of a plan to put the team up for sale. I imagine as sale talks were progressing they also discussed how the new ownership wants to approach 2024. Rubenstein says he wants a more competitive team even if the payroll is a bit higher, so Elias gets a deal in place for Burnes. Then the sale is announced, then the trade is official. But if the sale had hit a snag, John goes back to "keep the team cheap" mode.

[Aristotelian]

 

On 2/2/2024 at 9:09 AM, SteveA said:

This is my scenario of how I think this all came down, and yes I think the trade IS related to the sale, though I feel it has nothing to do with the possibility of extending Burnes.

1) FACT:  They have been working on the trade for quite some time, as you would expect with a major deal like this.

2) FACT:  The sale has been ongoing for quite some time, as you would expect with a major team sale.

3) OPINION:  Elias has been kept up to date on the team sale, has had talks with Rubinstein about what his operating environment would be like.   

4) GUESS:  Angelos would not approve of the addition of $15.6mm to the payroll as long as he is running the team.  As long as he owns the team he is scraping as much profit as possible because he and his family have serious cashflow issues due to mismanagement of MASN  and many other things.   Rubinstein would approve this.   Elias knew this.

5) GUESS:  At some point, probably in mid January, the sale of the team had advanced far enough that Elias was told it is almost certainly going to happen.   98 or 99%.   At that point, he was able to hammer out the framework of the deal with Milwaukee.

6) GUESS:  They couldn't actually make/announce the deal then because of the small chance that the Oriole sale would fall through.  If Angelos didn't have the $1.7 billion in his hands, he was not going to approve anything that would cut into his profits in 2024.   Elias shared this with Milwaukee and assured them it was very, very unlikely the deal would fall through..   Milwaukee trusted this and agreed to the framework of the deal but agreed not to make it official until the sale was complete, which Elias assured them it would be very soon.   Probably promised them the end of the month.

 

 

This would be exactly my best guess of how the process went down. I believe the deal was in the works but doesn't happen until the sale goes through. So the answer to the poll question is no, it doesn't happen without the sale. 

[Roll Tide]

 

[Nite]

Yes and I think it was Milwaukee who picked I the phone to accept rather than the O's upping the offer. I feel like the Brewers exhausted all options and took the best deal possible prior to spring start to unload the money and get what they can prior to any risk of injury.