Selected ZiPS WAR projections, 2024-26

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I've said this before but there are many teams in baseball where Westburg would be the most exciting young player on the team. And he's an afterthought here. Not that people think badly of him, it's just Adley, Gunnar, and Holliday are objectively more exciting.

It really speaks to the job Mike and co have done.

Couple of the young pitchers as well.

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, Say O! said:

That is what WAR inherently attempts to do with positional adjustments embedded into the composite metric

Ahhhh thank you for that.  I understand now.  So a 5.0 WAR Rutschman would be slightly more valuable than Gunnar at 4.8.  While WAR doesn't account for everything, it's still a solid at-a-glance way of measuring players in comparison to one another.  

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

I've said this before but there are many teams in baseball where Westburg would be the most exciting young player on the team. And he's an afterthought here. Not that people think badly of him, it's just Adley, Gunnar, and Holliday are objectively more exciting.

It really speaks to the job Mike and co have done.

Having the number 1 pick twice in four years also helped.

[waroriole]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

How do you figure that?

For some reason I thought he had a 6 fWAR season this year, but was at 4.6. The 6 was rWAR. I guess they could have him rising in 2027, but the next 3 years are stagnant. At least with Holliday, you see a progression. 

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Just Regular said:

The DT's include six-year mean projections, and here's an assortment of 2024-2029 readouts (6-year WAR total beginning with 2024) on the players upcoming AL championships will go through:

35-40 WAR: Soto, Julio, Yordan, Judge, Adley

25-32 WAR: Seager, Tucker, Bichette, Gunnar, Volpe, Holliday, Carter, Vlad

18-21 WAR: Paredes, Bregman, Altuve, Basallo, Semien, Mayo

14-16 WAR: Caminero, Cowser, Mullins, Jung, Arozarena

Others surveyed: Westburg 13, Langford 11, Kjerstad 6.    The DT's still like Cowser and are out on the older, hackier Kjerstad.    I think that Langford is too low, but his pro track record is small.

Soto, Vlad, Bo - should you stay, or should you go?   

 

Mullins nice to see on there. I wonder what he costs to extend and if it’s a reasonable length.

[Just Regular]

7 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

Mullins nice to see on there. I wonder what he costs to extend and if it’s a reasonable length.

I hope it is even tougher to see him go because he is a 2-time champion, and earns the Brandon Nimmo+ contract over the course of becoming that, but he gone.

I'm not really sure the Sigbot even yet really cares about trying to purchase FA seasons from Kyle Bradish or Grayson Rodriguez.

I'll cheer him as a visitor even if he's a Yankee.    Brady, Adam, Bee and Mullins all have ballpark similar wRC+'s and WAR/600 PA kind of numbers, but Cedric may have the opportunity to be part of the strongest teams any of them were ever on....savor him now.    Sorry Ryan O'Hearn, but I would enjoy getting to see him try cleanup against RHP, if Kathryn Rowe feels no one would get too freaked out.    Say for any All-Star RHP this fall:

2B Holliday, C Adley, SS Gunnar, CF Mullins, 3B Mayo, RF Santander, 1B Mountcastle, DH Kjerstad, LF Hays

Tempt Aaron Boone to remove Gerrit Cole for Caleb Ferguson in the 5th inning!

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

I hope it is even tougher to see him go because he is a 2-time champion, and earns the Brandon Nimmo+ contract over the course of becoming that, but he gone.

I'm not really sure the Sigbot even yet really cares about trying to purchase FA seasons from Kyle Bradish or Grayson Rodriguez.

I'll cheer him as a visitor even if he's a Yankee.    Brady, Adam, Bee and Mullins all have ballpark similar wRC+'s and WAR/600 PA kind of numbers, but Cedric may have the opportunity to be part of the strongest teams any of them were ever on....savor him now.    Sorry Ryan O'Hearn, but I would enjoy getting to see him try cleanup against RHP, if Kathryn Rowe feels no one would get too freaked out.    Say for any All-Star RHP this fall:

2B Holliday, C Adley, SS Gunnar, CF Mullins, 3B Mayo, RF Santander, 1B Mountcastle, DH Kjerstad, LF Hays

Tempt Aaron Boone to remove Gerrit Cole for Caleb Ferguson in the 5th inning!

Speculating on what “Sigbot” calculates is so silly, especially when the payroll is artificially limited by a cheap owner. and trying to make sure you have no bad/multi year contracts at all is an overly conservative approach that is going to limit the ceiling of the team.
 

If it’s a deal that buys out arbitration and gives us another couple years or team options at a fair price (considering how close he is to FA) you do it, simple as that.