Jackson Holliday spring training watch

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Exactly right. Like all young players, I’m sure he has some things to “clean up” but he the question mark about his defense isn’t range or hands or anything like that..it’s his arm.  He needs to improve the arm strength and get the velo on the throws up. 
 

I personally don’t think he would be the #1 prospect if people doubted he could be a ML SS. 

Sticking to the Prospect Ranking is so absurd. What does he or the O's get by him or Gunnar or Adley being ranked number 1? Judge was the 53 ranked prospect in 2015. I'd say he turned out alright for being just the 53rd highest ranked guy that year. 

[banks703]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

A good candidate for baseball's firstest world problem is having the Gunnar Henderson-Jackson Holliday and Adley Rutschman-Samuel Basallo stacks on the depth chart.

Its possible what baseball has in store is for two of the guys to develop their skills as highly as they can at 2B/1B.

I know Fangraphs Longenhagen, apart from his published comments on Holliday, also believes on the Gunnar side he's the Orioles shortstop answer as I got to pose that question to him in a panel during the AFL.

Shortstop is such a load biomechanically I wouldn't be shocked in ~6 years when Milwaukee's ready to non-tender Joey Ortiz if the Orioles looked for some Mike Bordick type so Gunnar/Holliday nearing 30 can both take better aim at 10000 PA.

Right.. but JH will only be 26 in 6 years. 

As someone in my late 30's, that makes me feel old. 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, banks703 said:

First.. most is not accurate as it relates to those who questioned Gunnar sticking at SS. There were concerns but it was hardly a consensus. Secondly, the questions on Gunnar as a SS were not about his skill/talent as a defender. The two main concerns were whether he could be more consistent to occupy the most premier infield position for you and if he would outgrow SS. There weren't questions around his arm, his ability to make plays in the hole, his mechanics fielding a groundball, etc. etc. so that statement above is quite misleading. 

Gunnar may outgrow SS. At 22 he's 6'4ish and probably every bit of 215 lbs, if not bigger. As he matures physically he very well could add 15 lbs of muscle without the extended effort that would be required of someone like EBJ to add the same amount. But just as you point that JH's incentive to improve as a SS is the payday, Gunnar has that same incentive and he's already night and day better as a defender than JH and was two years ago at the same age as JH. 

No, it was most. 

And you are right that Gunnar has the same incentive. The difference is the size, which matters here.  

The other thing that you continue to overlook is that Holliday doesn’t have to be a better SS than Gunnar to become the everyday SS.

What happens elsewhere in the org at third also matters. If the combo of Holliday and Gunnar on the left side is the best overall defensive set up than I believe they do what is best overall. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Sticking to the Prospect Ranking is so absurd. What does he or the O's get by him or Gunnar or Adley being ranked number 1? Judge was the 53 ranked prospect in 2015. I'd say he turned out alright for being just the 53rd highest ranked guy that year. 

The prospect ranking stuff is being done by people who have seen him and project him.

The rankings may not matter much overall but the point is those doing all of this work don’t believe he is destined for second base long term. They all believe he is a SS.

Look at what Law said about Basallo. Since he is a C, he is ranked very high. If he were “just a first baseman”, he may be around 50.

Now, obviously second holds more value than first but I doubt everyone believes he’s only a second baseman if the consensus thought is that he’s a SS long term.  
 

It’s just takes by scouts, people around the game, etc…that’s why that’s valuable to point out.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

The prospect ranking stuff is being done by people who have seen him and project him.

The rankings may not matter much overall but the point is those doing all of this work don’t believe he is destined for second base long term. They all believe he is a SS.

Look at what Law said about Basallo. Since he is a C, he is ranked very high. If he were “just a first baseman”, he may be around 50.

Now, obviously second holds more value than first but I doubt everyone believes he’s only a second baseman if the consensus thought is that he’s a SS long term.  
 

It’s just takes by scouts, people around the game, etc…that’s why that’s valuable to point out.

Let me bust out my Sportsguy to English translator.

 

Since I don't think a 2B can ever be the top prospect in the game and Jackson is the top prospect in the game Jackson can't be a 2B.

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, it was most. 

And you are right that Gunnar has the same incentive. The difference is the size, which matters here.  

The other thing that you continue to overlook is that Holliday doesn’t have to be a better SS than Gunnar to become the everyday SS.

What happens elsewhere in the org at third also matters. If the combo of Holliday and Gunnar on the left side is the best overall defensive set up than I believe they do what is best overall. 

In that world, the Orioles have no other players in their system that can play on the left side of the infield and in the event of that, they would still put Holliday at third with Gunnar staying at SS. You can keep throwing out stuff until it lands on something that supports your position in this debate if you want but only time will tell. 

The question is (and I've stated this recently as well) whether Mayo's defense can be good enough at third. An IF of Mayo, Gunnar, JH and Basallo with Adley behind the plate could very well be their best alignment both offensively and defensively for a three or four year stretch, perhaps longer if they extend Adley.  

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What was Manny's best year on defense?  2013?  That would have been his age 20 season.

As for significant, it's a nebulous term.  Obviously he isn't a hack right now but to go from where he is now to clearly better than the incumbent I think would be a significant change.  I also wouldn't move Gunnar unless Jackson was clearly better.

Gunnar didn’t peak that early.  

The saying defense peaks early seems to be accurate. The saying doesn’t say how early and it doesn’t say one can’t improve at a younger age and it’s a general rule, not a definitive rule.

The only real reason this is being discussed is that he is so good that he may be a MLer a year early than we thought.(or at least 1/2 year earlier)

If he were to stay in the minors all this year, like most would have thought when drafted, and he worked hard on his defense and played SS most days, I would bet that we see scouting reports after this season talking about the big leaps he took defensively.

But since he’s so good, he is going to be pushed to second because the defense just isn’t Gunnar good as of yet.

I still think he goes to the minors to start the season though.

[Just Regular]

6 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Right.. but JH will only be 26 in 6 years. 

As someone in my late 30's, that makes me feel old. 

 

 

I thought about that too while typing, but I think point stands if Holliday spends age 20-24 at 2B next to Gunnar.

Granting my own bias there, I feel it was unfortunate for both the 2018 Orioles and Manny's ultimate legacy the Back to SS at 25 thing that happened here last good team.

Following it through and enjoying JH's youth, he could even get SS back in his Age-25 season same as Manny should Gunnar walking after 5 more seasons be the stand-in for JJ Hardy retiring.

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let me bust out my Sportsguy to English translator.

 

Since I don't think a 2B can ever be the top prospect in the game and Jackson is the top prospect in the game Jackson can't be a 2B.

I think it's more that we we're just refusing to acknowledge that we might be wrong about something. 

Yoan Moncada was briefly ranked #1 as a 2B in 2016. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Gunnar didn’t peak that early.  

The saying defense peaks early seems to be accurate. The saying doesn’t say how early and it doesn’t say one can’t improve at a younger age and it’s a general rule, not a definitive rule.

The only real reason this is being discussed is that he is so good that he may be a MLer a year early than we thought.(or at least 1/2 year earlier)

If he were to stay in the minors all this year, like most would have thought when drafted, and he worked hard on his defense and played SS most days, I would bet that we see scouting reports after this season talking about the big leaps he took defensively.

But since he’s so good, he is going to be pushed to second because the defense just isn’t Gunnar good as of yet.

I still think he goes to the minors to start the season though.

I'm not saying he won't improve.

I don't agree with the mindset that it's a given he'll improve to a significant degree.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, banks703 said:

I think it's more that we we're just refusing to acknowledge that we might be wrong about something. 

Yoan Moncada was briefly ranked #1 as a 2B in 2016. 

SG has a thing about 2B not being a highly regarded position.

My guess is he wouldn't have agreed with Moncada's placement.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, banks703 said:

In that world, the Orioles have no other players in their system that can play on the left side of the infield and in the event of that, they would still put Holliday at third with Gunnar staying at SS. You can keep throwing out stuff until it lands on something that supports your position in this debate if you want but only time will tell. 

The question is (and I've stated this recently as well) whether Mayo's defense can be good enough at third. An IF of Mayo, Gunnar, JH and Basallo with Adley behind the plate could very well be their best alignment both offensively and defensively for a three or four year stretch, perhaps longer if they extend Adley.  

Sure, that could happen.  I happen to think Mayo can play a Ml third base based on what I have read and what little I have seen.

That said, I also don’t think he will be close to Gunnar at third, who I think could be a perennial GG player there. (I don’t think he can be that at SS)

So, it still comes back to Holliday for me. How much does he improve or does he improve at all? If not, that may be the lineup.  If he does, then Mayo is a first baseman or a RFer, Basallo is your back up C/first base/DH guy and Westburg is your starting second baseman.

It also matters if Gunnar keeps showing as good or better range than last year.  OAA didn’t love his defense at SS. Other metrics did. I happen to think the difference lies in the middle of those 2 things.

 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let me bust out my Sportsguy to English translator.

 

Since I don't think a 2B can ever be the top prospect in the game and Jackson is the top prospect in the game Jackson can't be a 2B.

It’s not just me who believes that. You would be hard pressed to find position players this highly rated that are definitive second baseman. Not saying it can’t happen but it’s rare and will always be rare.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I think it's more that we we're just refusing to acknowledge that we might be wrong about something. 

Yoan Moncada was briefly ranked #1 as a 2B in 2016. 

Again, how can I be wrong about something that hasn’t even happened yet?

 

[banks703]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

SG has a thing about 2B not being a highly regarded position.

My guess is he wouldn't have agreed with Moncada's placement.

Everyone is entitled to their opinions and despite my bickering with him, I do value his perspective on things though I almost exclusively disagree with him. 

JH is going to hit from Day 1 with bat-to-ball skills that the O's have maybe never had in their org...ever. That's obviously saying a lot but the kid is going to produce top tier offensive seasons whether his feet are in the dirt on the left or the right side of the infield, playing CF, super utility, selling peanuts or cleaning the toilets. His defense doesn't have a lot of influence on his prospect ranking. The kid is a stud with the stick, plain and simple. He would still be extremely highly ranked for his incredibly mature offensive game regardless of his future position.