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Jackson Holliday 2024


btdart20

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I think, the tools are there. The pedigree is there. He is young. We are going to find out over the next 18 months what kind of "head" he has. Like all Oriole youngsters, I hope he can produce equal to his hype. But I think/hope he will have to earn his place starting with next spring. He will set the narrative and the Orioles control his future unless he is traded. IMO, he has a lot of work to do to earn what circumstance has presented this year..

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ZiPS being an inhuman thing incapable of recency bias is not much out on Holliday.    It only dings his 2025-2029 forecast WAR by about 3% today relative to what it was forecasting this spring.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reassessing-the-future-for-this-seasons-disappointing-rookies/

Jackson Holliday’s numbers didn’t take a big hit for a few reasons. First, and most importantly, despite a really lousy debut in the majors, he played well enough in the minors — plus he’s so young and his résumé is so strong — that his small-sample struggles barely register. By reverse-o-fying Holliday’s major league woes into an untranslated minor league line and including it in his overall Triple-A production, ZiPS estimates that he would’ve had a 118 wRC+ in Triple-A this season, down from his actual mark of 142. A 20-year-old shortstop with a 118 wRC+ in Triple-A would still top everybody’s prospect list.

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Very dismayed that we're trying to win this season with unproven players like Holliday and Mayo plugging gaps. Very glad to have picked up Rivera  (+151 OPS as an Orioles) and Slater has a much-needed .354 OBP, plays a reassuringly fine LF, and is a good baserunner. I hope that the defensively versatile, LH-batting Livan Soto proves to be yet another surprise--his limited MLB stats show it's possible.

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  • Posts

    • I think yesterday was the nail in the coffin for him being on the playoff roster, assuming we make it.
    • I feel that way, too. I keep thinking about 2005.  2005: 10 games over .500 on June 20th. 1st place, two games up.  Shortly after they went on a 2-16 skid, and their last game at .500 was at the the start of that awful home 4 game series in late July when the White Sox swept them, and Raffy was exposed as taking PEDs. They fell under .500 that series and kept on sinking.  2024: 24 games over .500 on June 20th. 2nd place, a half game back.  Then immediately lose five straight. Due to their great start, they can't finish 14 under .500, but the dive feels eerily similar with all of the injuries, dormant bats, and all happening at the same time of year.  The floor coming out from underneath them feels a lot like it. That team was cooked by late July and by the first week of August, Mazzilli got the axe. That won't happen with Hyde this time, as they had a fine start this year, but this can't happen two years in a row under him. 
    • I know …. Gotcha. Trade away Stowers & Norby for Garbage and pick up Rivera & Jiminez. And be surprised when you offense stinks. 
    • You could cut and paste this write up for about every team in the organization. 
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