Craig Kimbrel 2024

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He could.

A lot of times the charity selections go to bullpen guys so who knows how many slots will be there?

Exactly. Who knows? There are, what, 35 roster spots now? They could well give several to random relievers who've given up like six runs in 33 innings, and who will give up 15 in 30 the second half.

Right now there are 66 MLB relievers who've pitched at least 20 innings with an ERA under 3.00. Roll the dice and pick a few. Although Kimbrel is playing with loaded dice because he's better-known and is slotted into the 9th inning and save situations most of the time. But if you wanted me to make an objective case he's better than Pedro Avila or Garrett Cleavinger or Andres Munoz or Zack Kelly or Kirby Yates or Timi Garcia or Emmanual Clase or Bryan Abreu or Tayler Scott or whatever... yea, I can't.

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm not sure why you'd say ERA represents actual results, while FIP doesn't. FIP accounts for actual walks, strikeouts and homers that are more-or-less just the responsibility of the pitcher. ERA lumps in all kinds of things outside of the pitcher's control, most importantly the quality of the defense behind him. And also the luck of where balls fall in or not. Also the performance of the relievers who come in after the pitcher in question has left someone on base.

Truthfully, ERA is a team stat that's heavily influenced by the pitcher. But it was all we had so we call it an individual stat.

FIP is calibrated to be like ERA, but it's not ERA, so it's not a 'real' stat. It's just a "well, here's what his ERA kinda-sorta should be, but it doesn't really matter and may or may not be predictive of next year's ERA" stat. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

FIP is calibrated to be like ERA, but it's not ERA, so it's not a 'real' stat. It's just a "well, here's what his ERA kinda-sorta should be, but it doesn't really matter and may or may not be predictive of next year's ERA" stat. 

It's as real as any other stat.

Hey look the official scorer made wonky call on that ball hit to the outfield and now three runs are earned that shouldn't be.

[DrungoHazewood]

27 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

He will pass Smith next season, but I think that's gonna be it; just don't think he has the longevity to go for 4 or more seasons to try and chase the 1 and 2 spots.

Definite HOFer though

I wouldn't call any non-Rivera reliever a definite Hall of Famer. Even setting aside the fact that it's awfully hard to make an objective case that most relivers as half as valuable as a good starter or a non-pitcher, how many Hall of Fame Closer type seasons has Kimbrel had?

Just kind of off hand, I'd say a "yep, this closer is making a HOF case" season in the 2000s is something like 35+ saves and and ERA of 2.50 or lower, over a K an inning, and probably a WHIP under 1.000. Yes, Kimbrel had four of those. But you know who has five? Joe Nathan, who got 4.3% of the vote his one year before dropping off. Billy Wagner has four, and he's not in the Hall yet. Chapman has three. JJ Putz (!) has three, as does Papelbon and Eric Gagne.

But that list helps highlight my problem in general with relievers in the Hall. Rivera and Hoffman only had a handful of seasons like that. The best closers in the game only have a Great Closer season 5-6 times. Hoffman is in the Hall, and his typical season was 60 innings of a 2.87 with 35 saves. 12 times Orioles have had seasons like that, it's not that exceptional or unusual.  Chris Ray had a Trevor Hoffman season. BJ Ryan. Don Aase. Jim Johnson twice!

And then we get to the objective value metrics, which say Kimbrel is the 13th-best reliever of all time. But they also say that 13 of the top 20 are not in the Hall of Fame, but Bruce Sutter (24th) is!

The Hall has all kinds of issues, but relievers are in a category all by themselves.

[dystopia]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's as real as any other stat.

Hey look the official scorer made wonky call on that ball hit to the outfield and now three runs are earned that shouldn't be.

And FIP distinguishes between a home run that goes over the fence by a foot and a flyout at the wall. How's that any different?

When I say it's not a real stat, I mean it's not based on real data. It's a fictional ERA. 

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, dystopia said:

FIP is calibrated to be like ERA, but it's not ERA, so it's not a 'real' stat. It's just a "well, here's what his ERA kinda-sorta should be, but it doesn't really matter and may or may not be predictive of next year's ERA" stat. 

As Corn said, it's as real as anything else. But since it's new you're not used to the assumptions like you are with ERA. You will just accept that ERA does really weird and wacky things (like, for example, giving a pitcher a free pass on every run he gives up after a 2-out error, even if that error should probably have been scored a hit).

You have no problem calling ERA real despite the fact that 6.00 might be average in pre-humidor Coors, but 2.75 might be average in 1966 Dodger Stadium.

You just casually accept the realness of the 1970s Orioles' ERA with five gold glovers saving countless runs. And probably just as casually use an apples-to-limes comparison with the defensively inept 1988 Orioles and the pitchers who had to deal with Sheets, Lynn and Gerhart in the OF.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, dystopia said:

And FIP distinguishes between a home run that goes over the fence by a foot and a flyout at the wall. How's that any different?

When I say it's not a real stat, I mean it's not based on real data. It's a fictional ERA. 

How is the data not real?

It's pulling from a different set of data but the data isn't imaginary.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

And FIP distinguishes between a home run that goes over the fence by a foot and a flyout at the wall. How's that any different?

When I say it's not a real stat, I mean it's not based on real data. It's a fictional ERA. 

By your standard ERA is fictional, too. It's using the ludicrous assumption that all runs should be charged to the pitcher when something like 50% of the responsibility goes to the defense and luck and park and weather and official scorers and sequencing and relief pitcher performance.

Edited Thursday at 13:31 by DrungoHazewood

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How is the data not real?

It's pulling from a different set of data but the data isn't imaginary.

Well, it's real in the fact that walks and strikeouts are real.

It's not real in that it converts it to a hypothetical ERA. FIP can't tell you anything more than what K/BB can. 

[dystopia]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

By your standard ERA is fictional, too. It's using the ludicrous assumption that all runs should be charged to the pitcher when something like 50% of the responsibility goes to the defense and luck and park and weather and official scorers and sequencing and relief pitcher performance.

That stuff evens out over the long haul. 

[DrungoHazewood]

47 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

He's second in the AL in saves, his underlying stats are okay, but not top 10 in many cases. If Bochy is old skool, he might take him. Looking through the stats, if Danny Colombe would have stayed healthy, he might have put himself into consideration

One thing to look at for relievers is WPA, measuring performance completely in the context of win probability added or subtracted. Essentially taking into full account the importance, or leverage, of the situations he's pitched in and his outcomes.

Kimbrel is 104th in the majors in reliever WPA. 5th on the Orioles behind Coulombe, Webb, Perez, and Cano.

Edited Thursday at 13:53 by DrungoHazewood

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, dystopia said:

That stuff evens out over the long haul. 

Does it?

If a guy spends his whole career in a pitchers park when does it even out?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Well, it's real in the fact that walks and strikeouts are real.

It's not real in that it converts it to a hypothetical ERA. FIP can't tell you anything more than what K/BB can. 

If FIP didn't tell you anything more than K/BB it wouldn't exist.

For instance, FIP looks at home runs, since the vast majority of home runs are not subject to fielding.

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

I wonder if Tony would have any interest in a forum dedicated to discussing some of these newer advanced stats?  I’m just starting to get into them more and know there are some on here who really understand them.  

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, dystopia said:

That stuff evens out over the long haul. 

It tends to over over many seasons. But not always. And most certainly not within a season.

Look at someone like Bob Welch. In 1990 he pitched like a fairly average pitcher, but was in a pitcher's park in a pitcher's season, with excellent defensive support, and a bullpen led by Eck having a historic season keeping his inherited runners off the board. So he got a 27-win Cy Young season with a 2.95 ERA when he may not have been one of the 10 best pitchers in the league (22nd in the AL in rWAR, about seven wins behind Clemens. 32nd in fWAR).

Edited Thursday at 13:48 by DrungoHazewood