Craig Kimbrel 2024

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

My brain has a hard time thinking Kimbrel could be an All Star after watching him.  But his baseball card stats aren’t that bad and he is on a winning team.  

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If FIP didn't tell you anything more than K/BB it wouldn't exist.

For instance, FIP looks at home runs, since the vast majority of home runs are not subject to fielding.

FIP is scaled to ERA so that it's understandable and you can contextualize it. You can't look at a bunch of K/BB/IP/HR numbers and easily tell me what the impact of those are. Is 100 innings, 80K, 20BB, 12 HR better or worse than 100 innings, 110K, 55BB, 17 HR? Well, just look at the FIP and the work's already been done.

Similar argument to WAR. What does WAR tell you that OBP, SLG, PA, SB/CS, fielding runs, etc not tell you? Well, it does all the hard work of putting all that on a common baseline that human beings can understand and use for analysis.

[dystopia]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If FIP didn't tell you anything more than K/BB it wouldn't exist.

For instance, FIP looks at home runs, since the vast majority of home runs are not subject to fielding.

But the difference between a home run and a flyout can be a matter of feet but we're supposed to believe that's in the pitcher's control while exit velocities aren't. 

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

FIP is scaled to ERA so that it's understandable and you can contextualize it. You can't look at a bunch of K/BB/IP/HR numbers and easily tell me what the impact of those are. Is 100 innings, 80K, 20BB, 12 HR better or worse than 100 innings, 110K, 55BB, 17 HR? Well, just look at the FIP and the work's already been done.

Similar argument to WAR. What does WAR tell you that OBP, SLG, PA, SB/CS, fielding runs, etc not tell you? Well, it does all the hard work of putting all that on a common baseline that human beings can understand and use for analysis.

The whole purpose of FIP is basically, "this stat exists because ERA is useless, but we'll tailor it to this useless stat and use it to predict the future of this useless stat" 

It's completely fallacious. Swiss cheese logic.

[dystopia]

16 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It tends to over over many seasons. But not always. And most certainly not within a season.

Look at someone like Bob Welch. In 1990 he pitched like a fairly average pitcher, but was in a pitcher's park in a pitcher's season, with excellent defensive support, and a bullpen led by Eck having a historic season keeping his inherited runners off the board. So he got a 27-win Cy Young season with a 2.95 ERA when he may not have been one of the 10 best pitchers in the league (22nd in the AL in rWAR, about seven wins behind Clemens. 32nd in fWAR).

You can always find outliers. 

[dystopia]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does it?

If a guy spends his whole career in a pitchers park when does it even out?

Sure you can factor that in. Do you have any examples of such a pitcher?

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, dystopia said:

You can always find outliers. 

But we know with 100% certainty that all of ERA's biases impact the results constantly. Welch is just one example.

FIP has biases, too. But it's another tool in our kit to analyze past/future performance, and it has a number of advantages over ERA.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

The whole purpose of FIP is basically, "this stat exists because ERA is useless, but we'll tailor it to this useless stat and use it to predict the future of this useless stat" 

It's completely fallacious. Swiss cheese logic.

What completely fallacious is you saying that anyone is saying ERA is useless.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Sure you can factor that in. Do you have any examples of such a pitcher?

Whitey Ford had an ERA half a run lower than his FIP. Probably at least in part because he was a lefty in old Yankee Stadium when it was 460 to LC/CF.

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, dystopia said:

The whole purpose of FIP is basically, "this stat exists because ERA is useless, but we'll tailor it to this useless stat and use it to predict the future of this useless stat" 

It's completely fallacious. Swiss cheese logic.

Let's not go off the rails. Nobody is saying ERA is useless, but it needs to be used in the proper context, and we need to try to compensate for its shortcomings. Because it's entirely plausible that a Rockie pitching in front of Colorado defense in Coors could have a 5.25 ERA that's more effective than a Mariner with a 4.00.

[now]

29 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

One thing to look at for relievers is WPA, measuring performance completely in the context of win probability added or subtracted. Essentially taking into full account the importance, or leverage, of the situations he's pitched in and his outcomes.

Kimbrel is 104th in the majors in reliever WPA. 5th on the Orioles behind Coulombe, Webb, Perez, and Cano.

Dang, where's the Wow! emoji when you need it? : o

 

[dystopia]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Let's not go off the rails. Nobody is saying ERA is useless, but it needs to be used in the proper context, and we need to try to compensate for its shortcomings. Because it's entirely plausible that a Rockie pitching in front of Colorado defense in Coors could have a 5.25 ERA that's more effective than a Mariner with a 4.00.

Regardless of what degree of “useless” you consider ERA, the point still stands, and the logic for FIP is still bad. 

[dystopia]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Whitey Ford had an ERA half a run lower than his FIP. Probably at least in part because he was a lefty in old Yankee Stadium when it was 460 to LC/CF.

You sure had to go back a long way. Any examples more pertinent to today’s game?

[sportsfan8703]

16 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Whitey Ford had an ERA half a run lower than his FIP. Probably at least in part because he was a lefty in old Yankee Stadium when it was 460 to LC/CF.

Isn’t Palmer the biggest outlier of his FIP being way higher than his ERA?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Isn’t Palmer the biggest outlier of his FIP being way higher than his ERA?

He's probably up there between pitching in a pitchers park and that defense behind him for a good chunk of his career.