Draft Targets 2 Months Out

[forphase1]

It's just so hard from a fan perspective drafting this low.   I mean I love that we are since it reflects on the mlb team being good,  but it's much harder to keep up with the draft now.   In years past I'd read a bunch on the top 10 players or so as it was likely one of them would be ours.  Now it's just too much and often outside the top handful of guys the top 15-40 can vary greatly.   It's a great problem to have,  but it certainly lessens my interest in the pre-draft stuff.  I hope a few guys drop a bit and that we can get top 15 talent with #22 and maybe snag a talented project at #32.  

[OsFanInOhio]

29 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

It's just so hard from a fan perspective drafting this low.   I mean I love that we are since it reflects on the mlb team being good,  but it's much harder to keep up with the draft now.   In years past I'd read a bunch on the top 10 players or so as it was likely one of them would be ours.  Now it's just too much and often outside the top handful of guys the top 15-40 can vary greatly.   It's a great problem to have,  but it certainly lessens my interest in the pre-draft stuff.  I hope a few guys drop a bit and that we can get top 15 talent with #22 and maybe snag a talented project at #32.  

Definitely harder to try to figure out who is a target and who might be there, but I’m surprised how much I’m still quite interested in who we might pick. them again, I thought there’d be no chance bradfield would be there at our pick last year, so maybe someone unexpected does drop. Or someone gets hot down the stretch and surges up the boards. 
 

Our success with Gunnar, norby, westburg, mayo and how good beavers looks makes me think we can still do plenty of damage at 22 and 32. 

[forphase1]

19 minutes ago, OsFanInOhio said:

Definitely harder to try to figure out who is a target and who might be there, but I’m surprised how much I’m still quite interested in who we might pick. them again, I thought there’d be no chance bradfield would be there at our pick last year, so maybe someone unexpected does drop. Or someone gets hot down the stretch and surges up the boards. 
 

Our success with Gunnar, norby, westburg, mayo and how good beavers looks makes me think we can still do plenty of damage at 22 and 32. 

Oh sure, I'm very confident in Elias picking this low as I feel they do a good job of identifying what they like,  and it doesn't have to be just the top guys.  I won't be surprised at all if whomever they take ends up being better than expected for the slot they are picked in the end.   But it's just harder for me to keep up as the guy they draft is very unlikely to be someone I know much about.   When we are picking top 2-5 you really only needed to study 4 to 7 guys or so to be fairly certain you knew about who our guy would be.   Now there are probably 30ish guys who COULD go at number 22.  The top 10 will likely be gone and the guys after #40 or so won't be likely, but anyone in the 11 to 40ish range could be the pick of some fall or rise on our boards.  I'll be watching it closely on draft day,  but until then it's just too speculative to really dive into IMO.

I do wonder how much harder it is to prepare for this kind of a draft as an organization.   When you are picking top 5, you can really narrow the focus down on 7-8 guys and really dive in deep to decide your board and who you take if available.  With being in the low 20s, you need to research many,  many more guys but probably not in nearly the depth you did while picking higher. 

[McLovin]

Stupid question - any chance there is a Drew Storen type, nearly ready closer, within range of our three first rounders? Someone that could help this year?

(Yes I know even Storen needed seasoning - best example I had…)

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, McLovin said:

Stupid question - any chance there is a Drew Storen type, nearly ready closer, within range of our three first rounders? Someone that could help this year?

(Yes I know even Storen needed seasoning - best example I had…)

34. Brody Brecht

RHP

Ht: 6'4" | Wt: 205 | B-T: R-R

Age: 21

School: Iowa

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.8

It’s hard to match the pure arm talent, athleticism and upside that Brecht has. A former dual-sport athlete who was a wide receiver on Iowa’s football team, Brecht finally dropped football and focused exclusively on pitching during his junior year on campus. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound righthander was a reliever as a freshman and transitioned to a starting role as a sophomore and between his first two seasons he posted a 4.33 ERA in 99.2 innings with a 34.3% strikeout rate and 19.2% walk rate. Brecht’s fastball is one of the hardest in college baseball. He averaged 97.5 mph in 2023 and has been up to 101 and he pairs the heater with a hellacious, high-80s slider that has double plus potential. Brecht’s question marks are as big as his arm strength, and he needs to prove in 2024 that he can throw significantly more strikes and profile as a starter. Scouts are excited about what a full offseason working on his craft will do, and there’s a chance he showcases a new splitter and two slider shape variants during his junior season. Brecht’s pure upside is second to none, but his risk is high as well.

 

64. Michael Massey

RHP

Ht: 6'5" | Wt: 230 | B-T: R-R

Age: 20

School: Wake Forest

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.3

Massey was one of the most dominant relievers in the country during the 2023 season, his first with Wake Forest after transferring from Tulane. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound righthander posted a 2.59 ERA and struck out 47.2% of batters faced. He has elite fastball shape and generated a ludicrous 41% miss rate with the pitch, which averaged 94 mph and touched 97. The pitch plays up with 20 inches of induced vertical break, cutting life and deception that comes from a delivery that appears to release the ball from right behind his ear as late as possible. If the fastball wasn’t enough, Massey also has a late-breaking low-80s slider that looks like a plus pitch. He’ll rocket up draft boards if he pitches in a starting role and shows similar stuff in 2024.

[DocJJ]

Didn't former Oriole Closer go right from college to the Orioles Pen after a very brief cup of coffee in the minors?

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, DocJJ said:

Didn't former Oriole Closer go right from college to the Orioles Pen after a very brief cup of coffee in the minors?

Gregg Olson.  I believe he was the #4 overall in 1988.  Pitched in 16 games in A and AA combined and called up at the end of the same year he was drafted.   He wasn’t very good in the minors or the majors but he broke out big time in 1989.

[Rbiggs2525]

I know High School pitcher is a big miss rate but under different regimes we have done a decent job. Between Grayson, Hall, Harvey. Grayson may be the only SP but Hall helped get us Corbin Burnes.

[DocJJ]

Elias generally likes the safe route- polished college bat-  In the range where we pick I like Cam Smith, Dakota Jordan, and Walker Janek.

 

It's fun to think about going for broke and taking Brody Brecht - yes, he has control issues but he was splitting time between football and baseball.  Our pitching instructors can clean up his delivery and we can have a TOR Ace....

[OsFanInOhio]

7 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I know High School pitcher is a big miss rate but under different regimes we have done a decent job. Between Grayson, Hall, Harvey. Grayson may be the only SP but Hall helped get us Corbin Burnes.

I mean - 1/3 first round high school pitchers ended up as a starter. And one didn’t even stick with the orioles (Harvey - who was dfa’d after a bunch of injuries). Injury risk is a huge Piece of the miss rate on projecting 18 year olds, as is projecting growth and control.
 

I’d be pretty shocked if we take one early. We’ve taken two since Elias joined, unless I am forgetting someone. Baumler in the 5th round and Zack showalter in the 10th or 11th. That’s a really really low % of picks to hs demographic over the last 5 years…

[OsFanInOhio]

1 hour ago, DocJJ said:

Elias generally likes the safe route- polished college bat-  In the range where we pick I like Cam Smith, Dakota Jordan, and Walker Janek.

 

It's fun to think about going for broke and taking Brody Brecht - yes, he has control issues but he was splitting time between football and baseball.  Our pitching instructors can clean up his delivery and we can have a TOR Ace....

Dakota Jordan does align with a profile we’ve liked at times clear the years. Power profile with some swing and miss risk (kjerstad, westberg, mayo, Fabian). Unimpressive defense and arm on top of the swing and miss makes me nervous, but power, bat speed and foot speed is an enticing combination.