Draft Targets 2 Months Out

[OsFanInOhio]

With the draft a little over two months out, I’ve started paying more attention to mock drafts and am curious who people think we might be interested in both at 22 and with the Gunnar ROTY pick at 32. Curious to see both what folks think the Elias/sig WILL do, and what you would want to target. 
 

In early rounds, we have overwhelmingly targeted colllege hitters. So I will always guess that is what the orioles will end up doing. 
college hitters orioles might take IF they are there:

cam smith, carson benge, billy amick, James tibbs

Looking at the talent in the draft and our farm system, I wouldn’t mind shots at high school ss options, even if I still think it’s not the most likely outcome from our draft history. You don’t pick for need, but there seem to be a decent number of hs as ranked in this range. 
 

hs ss I would be interested in:

Theo gillen, kellon Lindsey, Carter Johnson. I’m sure there are more, but those three stand out a bit. 
 

Anyone else with thoughts? I think the drop off at college pitcher is significant after the top 3, and don’t think we’ll take the risk associated with hs pitchers, especially in the first round. 

[sportsfan8703]

I usually use https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/  to check out potential draft picks.  It might not be the best but it's free and user friendly to click through.  I don't think we go pitching so I'm taking a look at NCAA bats, preferably LHH at premium positions in that 15-25 range.  

With that said, Cam Caminiti would be hard to pass up as a LHP.  His write up says that he would've been in line to go #1 next year with Ethan Holliday had he not reclassified to this year.  

Only OF Carson Benge really fits the LHH NCAA profile.  

[OsFanInOhio]

40 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I usually use https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/  to check out potential draft picks.  It might not be the best but it's free and user friendly to click through.  I don't think we go pitching so I'm taking a look at NCAA bats, preferably LHH at premium positions in that 15-25 range.  

With that said, Cam Caminiti would be hard to pass up as a LHP.  His write up says that he would've been in line to go #1 next year with Ethan Holliday had he not reclassified to this year.  

Only OF Carson Benge really fits the LHH NCAA profile.  

I use that, as well as a few out her sites rankings and mocks to at least get an idea of what caliber or player is going in that range, and who maybe has helium bs who is falling since the mlb.com one doesn’t update very often. 
 

agree on the lacking lhh demographic we usually like, but we’ve taken plenty of rhh college bats in comp a and 2nd round to think the lh isn’t something we’ll force (westburg, norby, Wagner, horvath). 
 

Caminiti would be exciting, but unless I’m misremembering, we’ve only drafted and signed like one hs pitcher in years (Zack showalter). High school arms are just a very risky demographic due to injuries and development (and probably not the most cost effective either as  I feel like they commonly want a lot of money to talk them out of their commitments to top schools. 

[RZNJ]

I like the HS position idea for either or both picks.   Mocks have Cam Smith gone by our pick.  How about a total curve.  No pun intended.   Brody Brecht,  RHP. U of Iowa.  Top of the line stuff.  Control issues.   

[OsFanInOhio]

47 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I like the HS position idea for either or both picks.   Mocks have Cam Smith gone by our pick.  How about a total curve.  No pun intended.   Brody Brecht,  RHP. U of Iowa.  Top of the line stuff.  Control issues.   

Every player is different, and our pitching development seems to be making strides the last few years. But we were never able to harness hall’s stuff. Still struggling to harness McDermott. He’d have to be someone you take and be very intentional with. Just lots of reliever risk. Santucci is another one with good stuff and control issues that aren’t as wild as Brecht.
 

I’d still be pretty surprised if we took a pitcher. We’ve taken exactly 3 pitchers over the last 5 years in the first three rounds, only signed two of them, and those were last years comp b and rd 3 picks. 

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, OsFanInOhio said:

Every player is different, and our pitching development seems to be making strides the last few years. But we were never able to harness hall’s stuff. Still struggling to harness McDermott. He’d have to be someone you take and be very intentional with. Just lots of reliever risk. Santucci is another one with good stuff and control issues that aren’t as wild as Brecht.
 

I’d still be pretty surprised if we took a pitcher. We’ve taken exactly 3 pitchers over the last 5 years in the first three rounds, only signed two of them, and those were last years comp b and rd 3 picks. 

I’d be very surprised too but it’s all about talent and where you draft.  At 22 it’s tough to get high ceiling talent.  I’d guess Brecht is a reliever at the next level but he’s got dominant reliever upside.  His stuff, reportedly, is as good as any pitcher in the draft.  95 strikeouts in 55 innings as a starter.  

[RVAOsFan]

Yesavage is so good, but I figure he will be gone by the time we pick. 

[OsFanInOhio]

4 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

Yesavage is so good, but I figure he will be gone by the time we pick. 

Basically every mock out there has his floor being the Red Sox at 12 or 13 or wherever they pick. He’s pitched his way out of our range. 

[Jim'sKid26]

I like Bryce Cunningham out of Vanderbilt. 3 pitches with a 4SFB up to 97. Big, strong RHP who projects as a #2 or #3 if the breaking ball develops. Floor is a backend of the BP. Take him at #22 as an underslot.

Then draft a HS guy who falls to 32 due to bonus demands. 

[OsFanInOhio]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I like Bryce Cunningham out of Vanderbilt. 3 pitches with a 4SFB up to 97. Big, strong RHP who projects as a #2 or #3 if the breaking ball develops. Floor is a backend of the BP. Take him at #22 as an underslot.

Then draft a HS guy who falls to 32 due to bonus demands. 

At that point, couldn’t you just draft the hs kid at 22 for slot then Cunningham at 32? I haven’t seen Cunningham mocked in a lot of first rounds and don’t know too much about him 

[Jim'sKid26]

Six of the top 10 HS prospects on Perfect Game's list are OF. 

The most interesting kid on the list is Noah Franco from IMG Academy. Two way guy, re-classed to 2024 from 2025. Seems like a guy how will have enough ?s to fall to 32. It depends on whether scouts see him as a hitter or a pitcher or if he wants to do a full Shohei. 

"Noah Franco is a 2024 OF/LHP, 1B with a 6-3 192 lb. frame from Bradenton, FL who attends IMG Academy. Taller and high waisted frame with extra long limbs for the height. Ran a 6.52 in the sixty yard dash. A primary outfielder with really good instincts. Long strides and good routes, working through the ball with a fluid and clean funnel to release. Big arm strength at 96 mph. Lots of feel. Also has good ability at first base and the arm also plays extremely well there. A left-handed swing, the wrists are elite allowing him to flick the barrel with authority late in the process. All fields approach and lift and carry to the process. Hammered balls in game. A left-handed pitcher, loose arm action with big upside and the ball comes out clean and down hill. Ride to the heater when down. Lands the curveball and change up and sequences his three pitch mix well. Excellent athlete and the highest level 2-way potential at the next level. Excellent student. Named to the PG All-American Classic."

https://www.perfectgame.org/rankings/Players/NationalRankings.aspx?gyear=2024

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Six of the top 10 HS prospects on Perfect Game's list are OF. 

The most interesting kid on the list is Noah Franco from IMG Academy. Two way guy, re-classed to 2024 from 2025. Seems like a guy how will have enough ?s to fall to 32. It depends on whether scouts see him as a hitter or a pitcher or if he wants to do a full Shohei. 

"Noah Franco is a 2024 OF/LHP, 1B with a 6-3 192 lb. frame from Bradenton, FL who attends IMG Academy. Taller and high waisted frame with extra long limbs for the height. Ran a 6.52 in the sixty yard dash. A primary outfielder with really good instincts. Long strides and good routes, working through the ball with a fluid and clean funnel to release. Big arm strength at 96 mph. Lots of feel. Also has good ability at first base and the arm also plays extremely well there. A left-handed swing, the wrists are elite allowing him to flick the barrel with authority late in the process. All fields approach and lift and carry to the process. Hammered balls in game. A left-handed pitcher, loose arm action with big upside and the ball comes out clean and down hill. Ride to the heater when down. Lands the curveball and change up and sequences his three pitch mix well. Excellent athlete and the highest level 2-way potential at the next level. Excellent student. Named to the PG All-American Classic."

https://www.perfectgame.org/rankings/Players/NationalRankings.aspx?gyear=2024

I was down at IMG last weekend and watched him pitch Friday night.  He was 91-92 with solid control and a good looking slider.  Only gave up a couple hits but nothing barreled, or even pulled for that matter.  He has the frame.  6’3” with long limbs and runs well.  Very impressive athlete.  He hit everything hard while batting.  His pitching performance was impressive, but the hit tool and athleticism really stood out.  On a field worth a ton of good players he stood out as head and shoulders above the group.   He has a body type/skill set that is super projectable. 
 

He was also originally a 2025 guy but reclassed to be eligible for the 2024 draft.  Might be youngest in the draft class.

Edited May 4 by emmett16

[OsFanInOhio]

4 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I was down at IMG last weekend and watched him pitch Friday night.  He was 91-92 with solid control and a good looking slider.  Only gave up a couple hits but nothing barreled, or even pulled for that matter.  He has the frame.  6’3” with long limbs and runs well.  Very impressive athlete.  He hit everything hard while batting.  His pitching performance was impressive, but the hit tool and athleticism really stood out.  On a field worth a ton of good players he stood out as head and shoulders above the group.   He has a body type/skill set that is super projectable. 
 

He was also originally a 2025 guy but reclassed to be eligible for the 2024 draft.  Might be youngest in the draft class.

Do you know if he’s mostly considered a pitching prospect vs a hitting prospect? I feel like a lot of what I read in very early mocks had him as a pitching prospect who was two way and could be a hitter. If he ends up as a 1st round caliber hitter who can also have some pitching upside on the side, I’d be fine with it. I don’t really see the orioles taking a hs pitcher given their track record. 

[Jim'sKid26]

13 hours ago, OsFanInOhio said:

Do you know if he’s mostly considered a pitching prospect vs a hitting prospect? I feel like a lot of what I read in very early mocks had him as a pitching prospect who was two way and could be a hitter. If he ends up as a 1st round caliber hitter who can also have some pitching upside on the side, I’d be fine with it. I don’t really see the orioles taking a hs pitcher given their track record. 

The kid looks like a younger version of Jac Caglianone. Most mocks have him as a two-way player. He has the athleticism to pull it off. My son is headed down to Bradenton in August to start a post grad year. The folks at IMG think Franco will honor his college commitment but the 22nd spot bonus might change his mind. Would the O's be willing to develop a two-way player? Might have to completely re-program the Sigbot...

Edited May 5 by Jim'sKid26

[OsFanInOhio]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

The kid looks like a younger version of Jac Caglianone. Most mocks have him as a two-way player. He has the athleticism to pull it off. My son is headed down to Bradenton in August to start a post grad year. The folks at IMG think Franco will honor his college commitment but the 22nd spot bonus might change his mind. Would the O's be willing to develop a two-way player? Might have to completely re-program the Sigbot...

I tend to believe Elias and sig don’t prefer the risk associated with high schoolers to begin with, based on only drafting 4 total in the top 5 rounds over the last 4 or 5 years. They’ve had success with the ones they did take, but of like 25 opportunities, they’ve only taken 4 shots at high schoolers. Hs pitchers even less, as they’ve only taken 1 in the top 5 rounds, and maybe 2 total. 
 

 Could they do it? I’m sure. Especially since we are conservative with pitchers and they work really short stints in the low minors, so he wouldn’t be overworked. But I also wonder if chasing the next ohtani is a pipe dream, and that many of these prospects would be better off focusing on one or the other.