Keith Law has O's taking Tommy White at #22 in latest mock draft

[Jim'sKid26]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5490480/2024/05/15/mlb-mock-draft-2024-travis-bazzana-charlie-condon/

"22. Baltimore Orioles: Tommy White, 3B/1B, LSU
The Orioles aren’t afraid to take a hard-hitting college bat even with some swing-and-miss concerns, doing so with Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser in previous years. White has hit 20-plus homers in all three years in college but tends to chase stuff out of the zone too often to be a top-10 pick, even in this class. I think the Orioles would be a floor for either Florida State hitter or Benge if any got here."

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5490480/2024/05/15/mlb-mock-draft-2024-travis-bazzana-charlie-condon/

"22. Baltimore Orioles: Tommy White, 3B/1B, LSU
The Orioles aren’t afraid to take a hard-hitting college bat even with some swing-and-miss concerns, doing so with Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser in previous years. White has hit 20-plus homers in all three years in college but tends to chase stuff out of the zone too often to be a top-10 pick, even in this class. I think the Orioles would be a floor for either Florida State hitter or Benge if any got here."

I’d say that would surprise me for a few  reasons.  First, it sounds like he’s already low in the defensive spectrum.  Sure, we can think of 1 first rounder (Kjerstad) who fit that bill but only 1.   Second, Law said White tends to chase out of the zone.  The O’s are very big on chase rates.   Third, I believe he’s a RH hitter.   Strike 3.

[Jim'sKid26]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’d say that would surprise me for a few  reasons.  First, it sounds like he’s already low in the defensive spectrum.  Sure, we can think of 1 first rounder (Kjerstad) who fit that bill but only 1.   Second, Law said White tends to chase out of the zone.  The O’s are very big on chase rates.   Third, I believe he’s a RH hitter.   Strike 3.

I see all of your points. Law has the following to say about the draft overall; "I’ve said a few times that this MLB draft class is one of the weakest I’ve ever seen, ,,,"

I wonder if he picking White due to the fact that the area the O's are picking in is not nearly as laden with talent as previous years and he thinks they might go underslot for a flawed power prospect like White. I found it an interesting pick as well.

[OsFanInOhio]

I’d be surprised given the lack of defensive value and lack of improvement his last year. As a likely 1b only prospect, he’s really got to hit, and hit for power, to make it. 
 

that said, the college bats we normally would target may largely be gone by the time we pick, so if he’s the best college bat left, I wouldn’t be completely shocked. If guys like benge / honeycut are gone (assuming smith and tibbs are long gone), then it might come down to guys like white, amick and Dakota Jordan as far as college bats (our most common demographic by far early in drafts). 
 

[OsFanInOhio]

6 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I see all of your points. Law has the following to say about the draft overall; "I’ve said a few times that this MLB draft class is one of the weakest I’ve ever seen, ,,,"

I wonder if he picking White due to the fact that the area the O's are picking in is not nearly as laden with talent as previous years and he thinks they might go underslot for a flawed power prospect like White. I found it an interesting pick as well.

He might be an underslot guy given his value has perceived to drop since preseason when he was commonly seen a high first round pick if I recall. 
 

however, part of me wonders what the difference is between him and Jacob berry, who went in the top 10 in 2022. Bat first probable first basemen…both at lsu their 21 year old season with similar stats and profiles, except white has hit for more home runs. Maybe someone who is more familiar with white can say, but it is interesting. 

[RZNJ]

I’m thinking they might go HS position player (Theo Gillen) or college pitcher (Jonathan Santucci) and do things a little different this year.   

Edited May 20 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

I'd really prefer a high risk/high reward high school player if possible this late in the draft. Not Elias' M.O., but he hit on Gunnar and Hernaiz to a lesser extent.

[Jammer7]

Tommy White? I cannot see Elias picking a very limited athletic profile like him. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think so. He gave the bad body HS catcher from Texas, Creed Willems, a million a few years ago in the 8th round, but I can’t see using a first round pick on White. 

[Jammer7]

58 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m thinking they might go HS position player (Theo Gillen) or college pitcher (Jonathan Santucci) and do things a little different this year.   

I would love to get Gillen, but it seems like his name is rising quickly in some circles. Santucci has had command issues, and some say he may go in the second round, maybe a comp A pick. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd really prefer a high risk/high reward high school player if possible this late in the draft. Not Elias' M.O., but he hit on Gunnar and Hernaiz to a lesser extent.

And Creed.  Along with Mayo, Henderson, and Hernaiz, they haven’t missed on a HS position player.

 

[OsFanInOhio]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

And Creed.  Along with Mayo, Henderson, and Hernaiz, they haven’t missed on a HS position player.

 

They have only taken a handful though. We’ve taken about 5 total in the first 5 rounds (including comp picks) since Elias took over (Holliday, Gunnar, Mayo, hernaiz and baumler). That’s a pretty low %. I don’t disagree that maybe you take some extra risk lower in the round to get more upside, but it definitely hasn’t been the approach so far. 
 

we also haven’t done too bad with the college rout in this range and slightly lower. We’ve gotten westburg, norby, and beavers in the comp a / early second round range. There have been misses too, but that happens. 

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

And Creed.  Along with Mayo, Henderson, and Hernaiz, they haven’t missed on a HS position player.

 

I don't consider it a hit until they make the majors. Still a long way to go for Creed.

[Rbiggs2525]

Vance Honeycut or Dakota Jordan seem to be Elias type players.

[RZNJ]

11 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Vance Honeycut or Dakota Jordan seem to be Elias type players.

Baseball America has Honeycutt going 12 but things could change.

12. Red Sox — Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina

This is around the range where the class is just wide open with little to no consensus. It does seem like Boston could be a fit for Honeycutt though, who is sort of like a college version of Konnor Griffin. The tools are excellent and his power/speed combination is probably second to none in this class, but his hit tool questions persist and he’s nearing a 30% strikeout rate for the second season in his UNC career. 
 

26. Yankees — Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State

If you wanted to make a case that Dakota Jordan should be a lot closer to UNC’s Vance Honeycutt, I wouldn’t argue with you too much. Like most of the players in the back third of this mock, there’s lots of split-camp opinions on Jordan who has probably the best pure bat speed in this class and gargantuan raw power but real contact questions. His raw power stacks up with the likes of Charlie Condon and Jac Caglianone. He’s slashing .376/.500/.780 with 15 home runs in the SEC but he also has a 26.4% career strikeout rate and is not a great defender or base stealer despite plus speed. 

Honeycutt is slashing .313/.419/.681 with 16 homers and 22 stolen bases and has more than 50 homers and 70 bags in his three-year career while playing an excellent center field. There’s a huge range of opinions on where Honeycutt fits but for now I’ll keep him toward the higher end thanks to his tools and premium defensive profile. 

Edited May 21 by RZNJ

[OriolesMagic83]

I wouldn't be surprised if Elias is looking for another Gunnar type HSer.  I'm sure not easy to find that aren't already hyped up.  Would be nice to get a top college arm that could move fast.